tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-83093304778146605922024-03-07T00:57:11.163-08:00Climate ObserverA blog to discuss the aspects of how we seem to be getting misled by Activist Scientists, Politicians and the Environmental Movement on the subject of Anthropogenic Global Warming or Climate Change as it is now known.
Please be sure to check out the Older Posts section too at the bottom of this page to read all the information I have posted here.Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.comBlogger160125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-90172059495633751672013-04-14T10:30:00.000-07:002013-04-14T01:01:36.311-07:00Contents Page<span style="color: black;">In creating this blog I found that all my posts have come out in the reverse order to which I intended them to be read. To save you the reader the hassle of having to plough back through my previous posts I have decided to create a contents page here with links to each section in the order they were originally intended. Of course you are free to view them in any order you choose. So just click on a link and enjoy learning.</span><br />
<b><br />Section 1: Introduction to me, my motivation and my blog:</b><br />
1. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/global-warming-climate-change-is-world.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Introduction</span></a><br />
<b><br />Section 2: Background information on CO2 and temperature:</b><br />
2. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/global-warming-from-little-ice-age.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Global warming from the Little Ice Age</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>3. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/global-warming-from-1998.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Global warming since 1998</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>4. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/global-warming-prior-to-little-ice-age.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Global warming prior to the Little Ice Age</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>5. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/global-warming-co2-facts.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Global warming -CO2 - the facts</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span><b><br />Section 3: Background information on the major groups and issues involved in the debate:</b><br />
6. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/three-realities-of-climate-change.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The three realities of climate change</span></a><br />
7. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/sceptics.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The sceptics</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>8. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/nobel-cause-corruption-in-climate_18.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Noble cause corruption in climate change</span></a><br />
9. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/intergovernmental-panel-for-climate.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>10. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/intergovernmental-panel-for-climate_18.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The IPCC and the Hockey stick graph</span></a><br />
11. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/chartmanship.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Chartmanship</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>12. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/intergovernmental-panel-for-climate_5933.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The IPCC's 4th Assessment Report</span></a><br />
13. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/ipcc-2500-climate-scientists-and.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The IPCC's 2500 scientists and the consensus of scientific opinion</span></a><br />
14. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/31072-scientists-who-opposed-ipccs.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 31,072 scientists who oppose the IPCC's position</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>15.<a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/us-senator-james-inhofes-650-dissenting.html"> <span style="color: #3333ff;">US Senator James Inhofe's 650 dissenting scientists</span></a><br />
16. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/climate-alarmism-and-al-gore.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Climate Alarmism and Al Gore</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>17. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/dr-james-hansen-and-alarmism.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Dr. James Hansen and alarmism</span></a><br />
18. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/professor-stephen-schneider-and.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Professor Stephen Schnider and alarmism</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>19. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/alarmism-and-ipcc.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Alarmism and the IPCC</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>20.<span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/australian-scientists-and-alarmism.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Australian scientists and alarmism - Dr. David Karoly</span></a><br />
21. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/australian-scientists-and-alarmism_26.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Australian scientists and alarmism - Dr. Tim Flannery</span></a><br />
22. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/australian-scientists-and-alarmism_27.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Australian scientists and alarmism - Professor Matthew England</span></a><br />
23. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/australian-scientists-and-alarmism_2239.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Australian scientists and alarmism - Professor Barry Brook</span></a><br />
24. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/australian-scientists-and-alarmism_29.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Australian scientists and alarmisim</span></a><br />
25. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/australian-activists-and-alarmism.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Australian activists and alarmism</span></a><br />
26. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/media-on-climate-change.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The media on climate change - part 1</span></a><br />
27. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/media-on-climate-change-part-two.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The media on climate change - part 2</span></a><br />
28. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/media-on-climate-change-part-three.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The media on climate change - part 3</span></a><br />
29. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/media-on-climate-change-part-four.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The media on climate change - part 4</span></a><br />
30. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/uk-met-office-employs-hindsight-to.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">UK Met Office employs hindsight to claim prediction perfection.</span></a><br />
31. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/use-of-visual-media-as-propaganda-tool.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Use of visual media as a propaganda tool</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span><span style="color: black;">32. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/reaction-of-some-of-public-to-media.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The reaction of some of the public to the media campaign on climate change</span></a> </span><br />
33. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/in-pay-of-big-oil-and-other-funding.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">In the pay of "Big Oil" and other funding arrangements</span></a><br />
<span style="color: black;">34. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/private-beneficiaries-of-climate-change.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Private beneficiaries of climate change</span></a> </span><br />
35. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-1.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in "An Inconvenient Truth" - part 1</span></a><br />
36. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-2.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in "An Inconvenient Truth" - part 2</span></a><br />
37. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-3.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 3</span></a><br />
38. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-incovenient-truth-part-4.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 4</span></a><br />
39. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-5.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 5</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>40. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-6.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 6</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>41. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-7.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 7</span></a><br />
42. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-8.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 8</span></a><br />
43. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-incovenient-truth-part-9.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 9</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>44. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-10.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 10</span></a><br />
45. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/error-27-mosquitoesclimbing-to-higher.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 11</span></a><br />
46. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-12.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in “An Inconvenient Truth” – part 12</span></a><br />
47. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/35-errors-in-inconvenient-truth-part-13.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The 35 errors in "An Inconvenient Truth" - part 13</span></a><br />
48. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/more-errors-by-al-gore.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">More errors by Al Gore</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>49. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-as-i-say-not-as-i-do.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Do as I say, not as I do</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>50. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/environmental-activists-hidden-agendas.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The environmental activists hidden agendas</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span><b><br />Section 4: The major issues:</b><br />
51. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/comic-relief.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Comic relief</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>52. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/polar-icecaps-part-1.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Polar Icecaps - part 1</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>53. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/polar-icecaps-part-2.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Polar Icecaps - part 2</span></a><br />
54. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/polar-icecaps-part-3.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Polar Icecaps - part 3</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>55. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/polar-icecaps-part-4.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Polar Icecaps - part 4</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>56. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/polar-bears.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Polar Bears</span></a><br />
57. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/permafrost.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Permafrost</span></a><br />
58. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/rising-seas-part-1.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Rising seas - part 1 </span></a><br />
59.<span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/rising-seas-part-2.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Rising seas - part 2</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>60. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/rising-seas-part-3.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Rising seas - part 3</span></a><br />
61. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/acid-seas-and-coral-reefs-part-1.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Acid seas and coral reefs - part 1</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>62. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/acid-seas-and-coral-reefs-part-2.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Acid seas and coral reefs - part 2</span></a><br />
63. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/acid-seas-and-coral-reefs-part-3.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Acid seas and coral reefs - part 3</span></a><br />
64. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/hurricanes-and-cyclones.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Hurricanes and cyclones</span></a><br />
65. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/drought-and-murray-darling-basin.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Drought and the Murray Darling Basin</span></a><br />
66. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/temperature-and-natural-cycles.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Temperature and the natural cycles</span></a><br />
67. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>68. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>69. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/air-and-ocean-temperatures.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Air and ocean temperatures</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>70. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/transition-to-solar-cycle-24.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Transition to Solar cycle 24</span></a><br />
71. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/cosmic-rays.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Cosmic rays</span></a><br />
72. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/urban-heat-island-effect.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Urban Heat Island effect</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>73. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/mosquito-borne-diseases.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Mosquito borne diseases</span></a><br />
<br />
<b>Section 5: The proposed cures for climate change</b><br />
74. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/alternate-energy-systems.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The alternate energy systems</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>75. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/wind-power-part-1.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Wind power - part 1</span></a><br />
76. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/wind-power-part-2.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Wind power - part 2</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>77. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/wind-power-part-3.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Wind power - part 3</span></a><br />
78. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/solar-power-part-1.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Solar power - part 1</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>79. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/solar-power-part-2.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Solar power - part 2</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>80. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/solar-power-part-3.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Solar power - part 3</span></a><br />
81. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/other-renewable-sources-of-power.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Other renewable sources of power</span></a><br />
82. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/nuclear-part-1.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Nuclear - part 1</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>83. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/nuclear-part-2.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Nuclear - part 2</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>84. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/nuclear-part-3.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Nuclear - part 3</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>85. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/other-green-initiatives-biofuels.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Other "Green" initiatives - biofuels</span></a><br />
86. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/other-green-initiatives-hybrid-electric.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Other "Green" initiatives - hybrid /electric cars</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>87. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/other-green-initiatives-compact.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Other "Green" initiatives - Compact Florescent Lights (CFL's) - part 1</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>88.<span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/other-green-initiatives-compact_27.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Other "Green" initiatives - CFL's - part 2</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>89. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/other-green-initiatives-compact_2166.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Other "Green" initiatives - CFL's - part 3</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>90. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/other-green-initiatives-compact_4973.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Other "Green" initiatives - CFL's - part 4</span></a><span style="color: #3333ff;"><br /></span>91. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/complete-list-of-all-things-caused-by.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The list of all things caused by global warming</span></a><br />
<span style="color: #3333ff;"><span style="color: black;">92.</span> <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/conclusion-to-this-section.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Conclusion</span></a> </span><br />
<br />
<b>Section 6: Conclusion of Sections 1 to 5</b><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/conclusion-to-this-section.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;"></span></a><br />
<br />
<b>Section 7: Updates</b><br />
93. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/10/more-hockey-stick-graph-controversy.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">More Hockey Stick Graph Controversy</span></a><br />
94. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/10/antarctic-not-melting-during-summer.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Antarctic Not Melting During Summer</span></a><br />
95. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/10/cosmic-rays-hit-space-age-high.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High</span></a><br />
96. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/10/quiz-time.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Quiz Time</a><br />
97.<a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/10/alarmists-deliberately-target-children.html" style="color: #3333ff;"> Alarmists Deliberately Target Children</a><br />
98. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/11/alarmists-deliberately-target-children.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Alarmists Deliberately Target Children - Part 2</a><br />
99. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/11/dr-james-hansens-failed-prediction.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Dr. James Hansen's Failed Prediction</a><br />
100. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/11/yet-more-political-support-for-alarmism.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Yet More Political Support For Alarmism</a><br />
101. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/11/dr-richard-lindzen-discusses-climate.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">Dr. Richard Lindzen Discusses Climate Change</span></a><br />
102. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/11/climate-research-unit-email-scandal.html"><span style="color: #3333ff;">The Climate Research Unit Email Scandal</span></a><br />
103. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/11/global-warming-swindle-movie.html" style="color: #3333ff;">The Global Warming Swindle Movie</a><br />
104. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-informational-videos.html" style="color: #3333ff;">More Informational Videos</a><br />
105. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/12/climategate-cru-email-scandal-update.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Climategate (The C.R.U. EMail Scandal) Update</a><br />
106.<a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/12/professor-bob-carter-on-co2-and-climate.html" style="color: #3333ff;"> Professor Bob Carter on CO2 and Climate Change</a><br />
107.<a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/12/debate.html" style="color: #3333ff;"> </a><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/12/debate.html" style="color: #3333ff;">The Debate</a></span><br />
108. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/12/report-from-copenhagen.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Report from Copenhagen</a><br />
109. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/hiding-decline-part-1.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Hiding the Decline - Part 1</a><br />
110. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/after-climategate-emails-were-released.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Hiding the Decline - Part 2</a><br />
111. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/hiding-decline-part-3.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Hiding the Decline - Part 3</a><br />
112. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/hiding-decline-part-4.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Hiding the Decline - Part 4</a><br />
113. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/hiding-decline-part-5.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Hiding the Decline - Part 5</a><br />
114. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/hiding-decline-part-6.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Hiding the Decline - Part 6</a><br />
115. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/australian-bureau-of-meteorology-bom.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) dismisses what it should be revealing</a><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br /></span>116. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/cloud-mystery-video-series.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Cloud Mystery Video Series</a><br />
117. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/those-who-control-information-try-to.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Those Who Control The Information Try To Control The Debate.</a><br />
118. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/glaciergate-and-teri-link.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Glaciergate And The TERI Link</a><br />
119. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/no-peer-review-required-at-ipcc.html" style="color: #3333ff;">No Peer Review Required At IPCC</a><br />
120. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/cru-was-not-alone-in-manipulating-data.html" style="color: #3333ff;">The CRU Was Not Alone In Manipulating Data</a><br />
121. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/03/how-gistemp-produce-their-fudged-data.html" style="color: #3333ff;">How GISTEMP Produce Their Fudged Data.</a><br />
122. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/04/dr-richard-lindzen-earth-is-never-in.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Dr. Richard Lindzen - The Earth Is Never In Equilibrium</a><br />
123.<span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/04/climategate-enquiries-and-tom-sawyer.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Climategate Enquiries And The Tom Sawyer Effect</a><br />
124. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/05/would-you-trust-truth-fudgers.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Would You Trust Truth Fudgers?</a><br />
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126. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/06/tuvalu-defiant-island.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Tuvalu - The Defiant Island</a><br />
127.<span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/06/update-on-wind-power-generation.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Update On Wind Power Generation</a><br />
128. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/06/anthony-watts-discusses-his-surface.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Anthony Watts Discusses His Surface Stations Project</a><br />
129. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/07/more-evidence-of-enhanced-global.html"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="color: #3333ff;">More Evidence Of Enhanced Global Temperature Data</span></a><br />
130. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/07/dr-roy-spencers-global-warming-for.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Dr. Roy Spencer's Global Warming For Dummies</a><br />
131. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/08/even-if-we-have-to-redefine-what-peer.html" style="color: #3333ff;">"Even if we have to redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is".</a><br />
132.<span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/09/ipcc-continues-to-fail-in-its-bid-for.html" style="color: #3333ff;">IPCC Continues To Fail In Its Bid For Accuracy</a><br />
133. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/09/failing-to-convince-climate-activists.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Failing To Convince, Climate Activists Threaten Instead</a><br />
134. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/10/stinks-of-desperation-by-alarmists.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Stinks Of Desperation By The Alarmists.</a><br />
135. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/10/very-important-letter.html" style="color: #3333ff;">A Very Important Letter</a><br />
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142. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/01/global-warming-panic-explained.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Global Warming Panic Explained</a><br />
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147. <span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/05/new-study-links-cosmic-rays-to.html" style="color: #3333ff;">New Study Links Cosmic Rays To Aerosols/Cloud Formation Via Solar Magnetic Activity Modulation</a><br />
148.<span style="color: #3333ff;"> </span><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/07/new-study-admits-global-surface.html" style="color: #3333ff;">New Study Admits “Global Surface Temperatures Did Not Rise Between 1998 and 2008″</a><br />
149. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/07/dr-judith-curry-explanation-for-lack-of.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Dr Judith Curry - An explanation(?) for lack of warming since 1998</a><br />
150. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/07/dr-roy-spencers-video.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Dr. Roy Spencer's Video</a><br />
151. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/climategate-vs-fakegate.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Climategate Vs Fakegate</a><br />
152. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/co2-causes-temperature-change-or-vice.html" style="color: #3333ff;">CO2 Causes Temperature Change or Vice Versa?</a><br />
153. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/polar-bear-numbers-increasing.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Polar Bear Numbers Increasing</a><br />
154. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/cosmic-rays-and-clouds-influence.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Cosmic Rays And Clouds Influence Climate</a><br />
155. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/new-peer-reviewed-paper-claims-global.html" style="color: #3333ff;">New Peer Reviewed Paper Claims Global Warming Not Human Influenced</a><br />
156. <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/reporting-impending-climate-doom.html" style="color: #3333ff;">Reporting Impending Climate Doom</a><br />
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158<span style="color: #073763;">.<span style="background-color: white;"> <span style="background-color: blue;"><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/paper-unifying-cosmic-ray-interaction.html"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Paper Unifyin<span style="background-color: white;">g Cosmic Ray Interaction</span></span></span></a></span></span></span><br />
159. <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/another-paper-supports-svensmarks.html">Another Paper Supports Svensmark's Cosmic Ray Theory</a></span><br />
160. <span style="background-color: white;"></span><br />
<a class="GFJVYHBBPB" href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8309330477814660592#editor/target=post;postID=967075545113517312;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=0;src=postname"></a><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/05/latest-news-from-cern-cloud-experiment.html"> </a>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-29638989660068290392013-04-14T00:48:00.000-07:002013-04-14T00:48:03.691-07:00Another Paper Supports Svensmark's Cosmic Ray Theory<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">In recent weeks there has been even further developments <span style="font-size: small;">in support of Svensmark's Cosmic <span style="font-size: small;">R</span>ay Theory <span style="font-size: small;">of cosmoclimatolo<span style="font-size: small;">gy. Via <span style="font-size: small;">T</span>he Hockey Schtick is this article: </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"> </span></span></i><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds
"strong evidence" of a link between thunderstorm and solar activity in
Brazil from 1951-2009. According to the authors, thunderstorm "</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 20px; text-align: justify; word-spacing: -1.11111px;"><span style="color: blue;">behavior
with respect to the 11-year solar cycle suggest a global mechanism
probably related to a solar magnetic shielding effect acting on galactic
cosmic rays as an explanation for the relationship of thunderstorm and
solar activity," which would corroborate</span> <span style="color: #b45f06;"><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=svensmark">Svensmark's theory of cosmoclimatology</a>. </span></span><span style="color: #b45f06;"><br /></span></span></i><span style="color: #b45f06;">
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<h1 class="svTitle" id="tit0005" style="background-color: white; border: 0px none; clear: both; color: #5c5c5c; font-size: 1.4em; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862">The relationship between thunderstorm and solar activity for Brazil from 1951 to 2009</a></span></i></span></span></h1>
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<span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></i></span></div>
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</span></i></span><ul class="authorGroup noCollab" id="ag0005" style="background-color: white; border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20px; list-style: none outside none; margin: 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a class="authorName" data-t="a" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#" id="authname_N2c86dba8N2a3069fc" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Osmar Pinto Neto</a><a class="intra_ref" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#aff0005" id="baff0005" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: a"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">a</sup></a><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">, </sup><a class="intra_ref" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#aff0010" id="baff0010" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: b"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">b</sup></a><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">, </sup><a class="intra_ref" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#cor1" id="bcor1" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Corresponding author contact information"><img alt="Corresponding author contact information" src="http://cdn.els-cdn.com/sd/entities/REcor.gif" style="border: 0px; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">, </sup><a href="mailto:osmarpintoneto@hotmail.com" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="E-mail the corresponding author" src="http://cdn.els-cdn.com/sd/entities/REemail.gif" style="border: 0px; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a>, </span></i></span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a class="authorName" data-t="a" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#" id="authname_N2c86dba8N2a306bdc" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Iara R.C.A. Pinto</a><a class="intra_ref" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#aff0010" id="baff0010" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: b"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">b</sup></a>, </span></i></span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a class="authorName" data-t="a" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#" id="authname_N2c86dba8N2a306c90" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Osmar Pinto Jr.</a><a class="intra_ref" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682613000862#aff0010" id="baff0010" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: b"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">b</sup></a></span></i></span></li>
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</span></i></span><ul class="affiliation" style="background-color: white; border: 0px none; font-size: 0.8em; line-height: 20px; list-style: none outside none; margin: 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li id="aff0005" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">a</sup> <span id="" style="border: 0px; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Camilo Castelo Branco University (Unicastelo), São Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, 12247-004, Brazil</span></span></i></span></li>
<li id="aff0010" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">b</sup> <span id="" style="border: 0px; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ELAT/CCST, National Institute of Space Research (INPE), São Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, 12227-010, Brazil</span></span></i></span></li>
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<li style="border: 0px; display: inline; float: left; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2013.03.010" id="ddDoi" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="doilink">http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2013.03.010</a>, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/help/doi.htm" style="border: 0px none; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="sdhelp">How to Cite or Link Using DOI</a></span></i></span></li>
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</span></i><div class="abstract svAbstract
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<h2 class="secHeading" id="section_abstract" style="border: 0px; clear: both; color: #5c5c5c; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight: 100; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 20px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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<span style="color: blue;">Highlights</span></span></i></h2>
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<dt class="label" style="border: 0px; float: left; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">•</span></i></span></dt>
<dd style="border: 0px; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 12px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div id="p0005" style="border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 13px; margin-bottom: 9px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; word-spacing: -0.15ex;">
<span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">First results on the relationship between solar and thunderstorm activity in Brazil.</span></i></span></div>
</dd>
<dt class="label" style="border: 0px; float: left; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">•</span></i></span></dt>
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<span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Strong evidence of anti-phase correlation between solar and thunderstorm activity in Brazil.</span></i></span></div>
</dd>
<dt class="label" style="border: 0px; float: left; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">•</span></i></span></dt>
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<span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">New statistical method for evaluating correlation between solar and thunderstorm activity.</span></i></span></div>
</dd></dl>
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</span></i><div class="abstract svAbstract " style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #2e2e2e; font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS', 'Arial Unicode', Arial, 'URW Gothic L', Helvetica, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></i><h2 class="secHeading" id="section_abstract" style="border: 0px; clear: both; color: #5c5c5c; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight: 100; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 20px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="color: blue;">Abstract</span></span></i></h2>
<span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></i></span><div id="sp0060" style="border: 0px; font-size: 13px; margin-bottom: 9px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; word-spacing: -0.15ex;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">
The goal of this article is to investigate the influence of solar
activity on thunderstorm activity in Brazil. For this purpose, thunder
day data from seven cities in Brazil from 1951 to 2009 are analyzed with
the wavelet method for the first time. To identify the 11-year solar
cycle in thunder day data, a new quantity is defined. It is named TD1
and represents the power in 1-year in a wavelet spectrum of monthly
thunder day data. The wavelet analysis of TD1 values shows more clear
the 11-year periodicity than when it is applied directly to annual
thunder day data, as it has been normally investigated in the
literature. The use of this new quantity is shown to enhance the
capability to identify the 11-year periodicity in thunderstorm data.
Wavelet analysis of TD1 indicates that six out seven cities investigated
exhibit periodicities near 11 years, three of them significant at a 1%
significance level (p < 0<span style="font-size: 13px; word-spacing: -1px;">.01).
Furthermore, wavelet coherence analysis demonstrated that the 11-year
periodicity of TD1 and solar activity are correlated with an anti-phase
behavior, three of them (the same cities with periodicities with 1%
significance level) significant at a 5% significance level (p <
0.05). The results are compared with those obtained from the same data
set but using annual thunder day data. Finally, the results are compared
with previous results obtained for other regions and a discussion about
possible mechanisms to explain them is done.</span></span><span style="font-size: 13px; word-spacing: -1px;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13px; word-spacing: -0.15ex;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13px; word-spacing: -1px;"> </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: 13px; word-spacing: -0.15ex;"><b>The
existence of periodicities around 11 years in six out of seven cities
and their anti-phase behavior with respect to 11-year solar cycle
suggest a global mechanism probably related to a solar magnetic
shielding effect acting on galactic cosmic rays as an explanation for
the relationship of thunderstorm and solar activity, although more
studies are necessary to clarify its physical origin.</b></span></span></span></i></div>
</div>
Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-9670755451135173122012-10-31T05:08:00.000-07:002013-03-31T05:55:21.411-07:00Paper Unifying Cosmic Ray Interaction<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In previous posts</span> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I have looked at the possibility of a link between</span> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Svensmark's Cosmic Ray theory as an alternate explanation of climate change, <span style="color: #b45f06;"><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2009/09/cosmic-rays.html">here</a></span>, <span style="color: #b45f06;"><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2009/10/cosmic-rays-hit-space-age-high.html">here</a></span>, <span style="color: #b45f06;"><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2010/01/cloud-mystery-video-series.html">here</a></span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">, <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2011/01/cern-cloud-experiment-preliminary.html">here</a>, <span style="color: #b45f06;"><a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2011/05/latest-news-from-cern-cloud-experiment.html">here</a></span>, <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2011/05/new-study-links-cosmic-rays-to.html">here</a> and <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/cosmic-rays-and-clouds-influence.html">here</a></span>. <br />
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<span style="color: #b45f06;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/08/a-paper-unifying-cosmic-ray-interaction-cfcs-ozone-and-warming/"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>A paper unifying cosmic rayinteraction, CFC’s ozone, and warming</b></span></span></a></span></div>
<img alt="" height="294" 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" 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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Calculated
change in equilibrium surface temperature (ΔTs) (solid curve in green) due
solely to CFCs, HCFCs and CCl4, with a climate sensitivity factor α=0.9 K W-1m2
and a climate feedback amplification factor Β=2. Observed global surface
temperature data (bars) were from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre; the red
curve is a 3-point average smoothing of observed data (updated from Fig. 6 in
Lu [68]).</span></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">On
<b>Cosmic-Ray-Driven Electron Reaction Mechanism for Ozone Hole
and Chlorofluorocarbon Mechanism for Global Climate Change</b><br />
<br />Qing-Bin Lu, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo</span></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /><b>Abstract</b><br />
<br />Numerous laboratory measurements have provided a sound physical basis for the
cosmic-ray driven electron induced reaction (CRE) mechanism of
halogen-containing molecules for the ozone hole. And observed spatial and time
correlations between polar ozone loss or stratospheric cooling and cosmic rays
have shown strong evidence of the CRE mechanism [Q.-B. Lu, Phys. Rep. 487,
141-167(2010)]. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were also long-known greenhouse
gases but were thought to play only a minor role in climate change. However,
recent observations have shown evidence of the saturation in greenhouse effect
of non-CFC gases.<span style="color: red;"> A new evaluation has shown that halocarbons alone (mainly
CFCs) could account for the rise of 0.5~0.6 °C in global surface temperature
since 1950, leading to the striking conclusion that not CO2 but CFCs were the
major culprit for global warming in the late half of the 20th century</span> [Q.-B. Lu, J. Cosmology
8, 1846-1862(2010)].</span></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
Surprisingly, a recent paper [J.-W. Grooß and R. Müller, Atmos. Environ. 45,
3508-3514(2011)] has criticized these new findings by presenting “ACE-FTS
satellite data”. Here, I show that there exist serious problems with such
“ACE-FTS satellite data” because the satellite has essentially not covered the
Antarctic vortex in the presented months (especially winter months during which
most effective CRE reactions are expected) and that the criticisms do not agree
with the scientific facts in the literature. Instead, real data from multiple
satellites provide strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. So far, the CRE
mechanism is the only one that reproduces and predicts 11-year cyclic
variations of ozone loss in the Antarctic O3 hole and of resultant
stratospheric cooling, and the CFC mechanism can well explain both recent
global warming and cooling. These findings should improve our understandings of
the ozone hole and global climate change.</span></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /><b>Introduction</b><br />
<br />Both natural and human effects could alter the Earth’s climate and environment.
The ozone hole and global temperature change have been two major scientific
problems of global concern. There is long interest in studying the effects of
cosmic rays (CRs)<br />
on Earth’s ozone layer [1-17]. In the 1970s, the odd nitrogen (NOx) generated
by solar particle events (SPEs) were proposed first by Crutzen et al. [1] for
solar proton events and then by Thorne [3] for energetic electron precipitation
events to cause transient O3 destruction in the upper stratosphere at altitudes
above 30 km. And Ruderman et al. [2]<br />
proposed that the 11-year solar cycle variation of the CR intensity may also
result in a small modulation (2~3% above or below the mean value) of polar
total O3. However, the sink of O3 by SPEs, often associated with very large
solar flares, is expected to be most pronounced during solar maxima and opposite in phase to the O3 loss
caused by CRs [3].</span></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />If these
natural effects were appreciable, they would lead to an 11-year cyclic
variation in any season (e.g., summer). However, observed O3 data show no
considerable long-term correlation between total ozone in the summer polar
stratosphere and solar activity / CRs These natural effects are very limited in
the long-term total O3 variation. Direct measurements based on balloons and
satellites have shown convincing evidence that the formation of the O3 hole is related to human-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
such as CF2Cl2 (CFC-12) and CFCl3 (CFC-11).</span></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /><span style="font-size: small;">In 1974,
Molina and Rowland first proposed that CFCs are decomposed by photodissociation with UV sunlight (a process called photolysis). The liberated
chlorine atoms contribute to the depletion of the O3 layer. This photolysis was
originally predicted to happen in the upper tropical stratosphere at high
altitudes of ~40 km. Then it came with a surprising observation by Farman, Gardiner and Shanklin [19] in
1985 that the springtime O3 hole appeared over Antarctica and at low altitudes
of 15-20 km. It was subsequently found that the formation of the ozone hole is
closely related to the existence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) that form
in the winter Antarctic stratosphere and<br />
consist mainly of condensed-phase water ice or/and nitric acid ice [20, 21].
The O3 hole was then explained by mixed photochemical models [22-25]:<br />
<br />(1) the photolysis of CFCs occurs in the upper tropical stratosphere; </span></span></span></i></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">(2) air
transportation to the lower polar stratosphere of inorganic halogen species
(mainly HCl and ClONO2) resulting from reactions of CFC dissociation products
(Cl and ClO) with other atmospheric molecules (CH4 and NO2)</span></span></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">(3)
heterogeneous chemical reactions of inorganic halogen species on ice surfaces
in PSCs to form photoactive Cl2 and HOCl in the winter lower polar
stratosphere. Finally, the sunlight-photolysis of photoactive halogens produces
Cl atoms to destroy ozone in the spring polar stratosphere. These are the
widely accepted explanation of the O3 hole.</span></i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">
<br />The Montreal Protocol has successfully phased out the production of CFCs in the
world wide. Since the observed total halogen level in the troposphere peaked in
~1994, the original prediction was that “Peak global ozone losses are expected
to occur during the next several years” [26]. The equivalent effective
stratospheric chlorine levels at midlatitudes and Antarctica were then
re-calculated to peak in the years around 1997 and 2000, respectively with
delays of ~3 and ~6 years from the tropospheric peak, and it was thus predicted
that the total O3 in mid-latitudes and the Antarctic O3 hole would have recovered correspondingly [27]. So far, however, no statistically significant
recovery of O3 loss has been observed [28]. Even the largest Arctic ozone hole
was observed in 2011 [29]. More remarkably, the largest (smallest) Antarctic O3
holes were observed when solar activity was weakest (strongest), e.g., in 1987,
1998 and 2008 (1991, 2002 and 2013 (expected)). In fact, there has been no O3 loss observed over the Equator in
the past four decades. These observations are inconsistent with the above
predictions from photochemical models and indicate that the current
photochemical theory of ozone loss is incomplete or wrong. As noted recently by
Manney et al. [29], the ability of current atmospheric/climate models to
predict the future polar O3 loss is very limited, and improving the predictive
capabilities is one of the greatest challenges in polar O3 research. To place
the Protocol on a firmer scientific ground, it is still required to obtain a
correct and complete ozone depletion theory.<br />
<br />The fact is also that parallel to the study of photolysis of CFCs, there is a
long history of<br />
studying electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules including CFCs
[30, 31]. The dissociative attachment (DA) of gaseous CFCs to low-energy free
electrons was once suggested as a potential sink of CFCs in the atmosphere by
Peyerimhoff et al. [32,<br />
33]. But the process was long thought to be insignificant due to the low free
electron density detected in the stratosphere [34, 35]. Then, the large
enhancements by up to four orders of magnitude in electron-stimulated
desorption of Cl- ions from CF2Cl2 adsorbed on polar molecular ice surfaces
were surprisingly observed by Lu and Madey [5, 36-<br />
39] and then confirmed by Solovev et al. [40]. In Lu and Madey experiments [5],
electron-induced dissociation cross sections of CFCs adsorbed on polar ice
surfaces were measured to be 106-108 times the photodissociation cross sections
(10^-20 cm2) of gaseous CFCs [30], and a dissociative electron transfer (DET)
mechanism was proposed to explain the results:</span></i></span><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"> </span></i></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">where et‾
is a weakly-bound electron trapped in the polar (H2O/NH3) ice [5, 36]. This
unexpected finding revived the studies of electron-induced reactions of
halogenated molecules. The DET mechanism of halogen-containing molecules was
also confirmed in surface electron trapping experiments by Lu and Sanche [6, 41-43] and in
surface photochemistry experiments by others [44, 45]. More recently,
femtosecond time-resolved laser spectroscopic measurements have obtained direct
observations of DET reactions of halogenated molecules in liquid water by Lu
and co-workers [46-49] or adsorbed on solid ice surfaces by Ryu et al. [50] and Wolf and co-workers [51, 52].
Remarkably, Stähler et al. [52] have recently measured a very large DET
dissociation cross section up to 4×10¯12 cm2 for CFCl3 on D2O ice, which is
comparable to those observed for CF2Cl2 adsorbed on H2O and NH3 ice, being
~1×10¯14 and ~6×10¯12 cm2, respectively by Lu and Madey [5]. The DET mechanism
has also been confirmed by several theoretical simulations [53-57].</span></i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><i>
</i></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"><span style="color: blue;">As
reviewed recently by Lu [15], it has now been well-established that polar media
in various (gas, liquid and solid) phases can largely enhance electron-induced
dissociations of both organic and inorganic halogenated molecules such as CFCs
and HCl (ClONO2) to various degrees via the DET reaction mechanism. It is also
well-known that copious electrons are produced by atmospheric ionization of
cosmic rays in the stratosphere, especially in the lower polar stratosphere
with the presence of PSC ice particles in the winter and early spring polar stratosphere. This logically led to the
search of the significance of DET reactions of halogenated molecules for O3
depletion in the polar stratosphere [5]. Oum et al. [58] had also reported that
Cl¯ ions can be converted into Cl2<br />
molecules in atmospheric reactions of sea salts. Lu and Madey [5] therefore
proposed the observed large enhancement of anions (Cl‾) from DET reactions of
halogenated molecules adsorbed on PSC ice surfaces as an unrecognized mechanism
for the formation of the O3 hole. It was proposed that resultant Cl‾ ions can
either be rapidly converted to reactive Cl atoms to destroy O3 molecules, or
react with other species at PSC ice surfaces to release photoactive Cl2 and
ClNO2 in the winter (dark) polar stratosphere [5, 15]. The latter can also
produce Cl atoms to destroy O3, upon photolysis in the spring polar
stratosphere. Subsequently, numerous data from field measurements of total O3,
CFCs, CRs as well as O3- loss induced stratospheric cooling over Antarctica
over the past five decades were examined by Lu and Sanche [6] and Lu [14, 15].</span> <span style="color: red;"><b>These
data have provided strong evidence of the cosmic-ray-driven</b> <b>electron-reaction
(CRE) mechanism for the O3 hole.</b></span></span></i></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>
</i></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;">In
particular, ozone loss has shown strong spatial and time correlations with CR
intensity. </span></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;">The electron production rate by CRs has a maximum at an altitude of
around 18 km in the lower polar stratosphere, at which the O3 hole is exactly
observed. More remarkably, observed data have shown an 11-year cyclic variation
of polar O3 loss, corresponding to the 11-year cycles of CR intensity. This is consistent with the prediction of the
CRE mechanism, which is strikingly different from various photochemical model
calculations predicting no 11-year cyclic variations in polar O3 loss [27, 28].
It should be noted that because the oscillation amplitude of the CR intensity in 11-year CR
cycles was well-known to be small, only about 10% of its mean value, the
resultant oscillation amplitude of polar O3 would be too small (far less than
5%) to observe if the CRE mechanism only played a minor role [14, 15].</span></i></span></span><br />
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;">
</span></i></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;">In
addition to their well-known role in O3 depletion, CFCs are also long known
effective greenhouse (GH) gases [59-65]. These previous studies using various
climate models unfortunately concluded that halocarbons would play an important
but not dominant role in past and future surface temperature changes. In
current IPCC climate models [66, 67, 27, 28], it was generally thought that
halocarbons would play only a minor part in global warming, whose concentrations are orders of magnitude smaller than those
of non-halogenated gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O). The 2011 WMO Report [28] has
concluded that the positive radiative forcing ΔF due to the CFCs and HCFCs in
2008 was 0.34 ± 0.03 W/m², which represented only ~17% of the calculated ΔF of +1.7 W/m2 by
CO2, together with a small ΔF of about -0.05 ± 0.1 W/m2 due to stratospheric O3
depletion.</span></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></i></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;">
</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: blue;">Full paper</span> </span><span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1210/1210.1498.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 115%;">here</span></a></span></span></i></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]-->Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-19443714765504722952012-04-21T04:27:00.006-07:002012-04-21T04:46:21.563-07:00Part 2 of Professor Don Easterbrook's Concerns About The "Shakun et al Paper"In an earlier post entitled <span style="font-weight: bold;">CO2 Causes Temperature Change or Vice Versa?</span> I showed <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/co2-causes-temperature-change-or-vice.html">the first part of Professor Don Easterbrook's response </a>to the Shakun et al paper entitled <strong>Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.<br /></strong><br />As promised here is part two of Professor Easterbrook's response (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/18/more-fatal-flaws-in-the-shakun-et-al-nature-paper-claiming-that-co2-preceded-late-glacial-warming-part-2/">via WUWT</a>):<strong><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">More fatal flaws in the Shakun et al. Nature paper claiming that CO2 preceeded late glacial warming [Part 2]</span></span><br /></strong><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>By Dr. Don Easterbrook</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/08/did-shakun-et-al-really-prove-that-co2-precede-late-glacial-warming-part-1/" target="_blank">Part 1</a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span>, I posed 11 questions related to underlying assumptions and misconceptions that form the basis for the paper “<em>Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation by </em><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html">Shakun et al</a>. (<em>Nature</em> 2012) and discussed the first five questions related to the authors claim to have “<strong><em>compelling evidence that rising CO2 <span style="text-decoration: underline; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">caused</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span>much of the global warming”</em></strong> and <em>that “<strong>the CO2 change slightly preceded much of the global warming, and this means the global greenhouse effect had an important role in driving up global temperatures and bringing the planet out of the last Ice Age</strong></em><strong>.” </strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/08/did-shakun-et-al-really-prove-that-co2-precede-late-glacial-warming-part-1/" target="_blank">Part 1</a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span> discussed problems related to the lack of direct dating of the Antarctic ice cores and the difficulty of accurately measuring CO2 in ice cores. In Part 2, we will look at the validity of the authors’ claims that (1) climate changes in Antarctica were out of phase with global climatic changes and Southern Hemisphere climatic changes have a ‘see-saw’ relationship with the Northern Hemisphere. These contentions are central to the whole theme of the paper. We’ll also have look at the Greenland ice cores as proxies for global climate change, the AMOC forcing as the only causal mechanism for climate change, why orbital forcing doesn’t work for the abruptness of climate changes, and if we make through all of that, we’ll look at some other causal mechanisms that the Shakun et al. paper casually dismiss. <span id="more-61592"></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">As shown in Part 1, the lack of direct dating of Antarctic ice cores resulted in reliance on theoretically modeled, wiggle-curve correlations age estimates that are essentially just best guesses, not accurate measurements. How can we check the validity of the Antarctic ice core ages used in the paper? The nearest places to Antarctica where well-dated climate chronologies exist are New Zealand and southern South America. If the Southern Hemisphere is indeed out of phase with the Northern Hemisphere (the ‘see-saw’), we should see it also in the chronologies of New Zealand and South America. Let’s see how they compare with the Antarctic chronology. Two specific periods of climate change can be compared: (1) a late phase of the LGM ~17,000 years ago, and (2) the Younger Dryas 12,700 to 11,500 years ago. If the basic contentions of the Shakun et al. paper are correct, the chronology of these two climatic phases in Antarctic, New Zealand, and South America should be out of phase with the chronology of similar phases in the Northern Hemisphere.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>New Zealand and Patagonia at the last glacial maximum</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A well-defined, well dated set of glacial moraines marking the last glacial maximum enclose Lake Pukaki in the Southern Alps of New Zealand (Figure 1). Seven Beryllium 10 (<sup>10</sup>Be) age measurements of boulders on the terminal moraines average 17,400 years old (Schaefer et al., 2006; Easterbrook, 2011).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><strong><em><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image002.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;margin:0;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image002" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image002_thumb.jpg?w=201&h=244" alt="clip_image002" border="0" height="244" width="201" /></a></em></strong><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image004.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image004" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image004_thumb.jpg?w=186&h=244" alt="clip_image004" border="0" height="244" width="186" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><sup>10</sup>Be dates from moraines at Lake Pukaki, Glacial and pollen chronology from the</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">New Zealand. (Schaefer et al., 2006) southern Lake District of Chile.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">LGM moraines and pollen from bogs in the Lake District of southern Chile have been extensively <sup>14</sup>C dated. The average ages show an LGM at 17,400 years ago. LGM moraines surrounding Lago Buenos Aires in Patagonia have been <sup>10</sup>Be dated at 16,000 and 18,800 years old (Kaplan et al., 2004).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Nineteen <sup>10</sup>Be ages measured from boulders on moraines in the Tasmanian highlands of SE Australia range from 19,100 on terminal moraines to 15,oo0 on recessional moraines with a mean of 16,800 years. (Barrows et al., 2001, 2002).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">What these well-dated chronologies are telling us is that the LGM occurred at the same time in the both the Northern and Southern and Hemispheres, i.e., the hemispheres are not out of phase with one another.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>The Younger Dryas chronology</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">An even better climate chronology can be found during the Younger Dryas in New Zealand, which can be compared to the Antarctic YD chronology to test the Shakun et al. contentions. At least two phases of the Younger Dryas can be identified in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, making the YD an excellent test of whether or not the YD was synchronous in both hemispheres or was out of phase (as contended by Shakun et al.).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong><em>Southern Alps, </em></strong><strong><em>New Zealand</em></strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">New Zealand has a well-established Younger Dryas chronology at multiple localities in the Southern Alps. The YD double–moraine pattern is found in the glacial chronology at at Birch Hills along Lake Pukaki, Arthur’s Pass, Prospect Hills, Waiho Loop, and at several other localities. At Birch Hills ~40 km upvalley from the Lake Pukaki LGM moraines, 5 <sup>10</sup>Be dates from the outermost Birch Hills moraine average 12,800 years old and 4 <sup>10</sup>Be dates from the inner moraine average 11,200 years old. Another pair of YD moraines at Arthur’s Pass show a mean <sup>10</sup>Be age of 11,800 years for the outermost YD moraine and 11,400 for the inner moraine. A YD moraine at Prospect Hills yielded <sup>10</sup>Be dates of 12.7 and 12.8 years B.P. (Easterbrook, 2002, 2011).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">On the west coast of South Island, wood in the Waiho Loop moraine, deposited by the Franz Josef Glacier about 20 km behind the LGM moraine, has been dated at 11,200 <sup>14</sup>C years (equivalent to a calendar year age of slightly less than 13,000 years). (Mercer, 1982, 1988; Denton and Hendy, 1994).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><strong><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image006.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image006" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image006_thumb.jpg?w=244&h=162" alt="clip_image006" border="0" height="162" width="244" /></a><a style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image008.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image008" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image008_thumb.jpg?w=243&h=167" alt="clip_image008" border="0" height="167" width="243" /></a></strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Ages of Younger Dryas moraines in the Southern Alps of New Zealand.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><strong><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image010.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;margin:0;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image010" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image010_thumb.jpg?w=244&h=213" alt="clip_image010" border="0" height="213" width="244" /></a><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image012.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image012" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image012_thumb.jpg?w=268&h=211" alt="clip_image012" border="0" height="211" width="268" /></a></strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Ages of inner and outer YD moraines at Birch Hills in the Southern Alps.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Younger Dryas chronology in the Northern Hemisphere</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">At least two phases of the Younger Dryas are also well documented in the Northern Hemisphere at many localities in North America, the European Alps, Scandinavia, and eastern Europe. The chronology of these climatic events is well dated by radiocarbon. This provides the opportunity for comparison with the double phases of YD glaciation found in New Zealand and elsewhere. The double YD phases are found both in the record of continental ice sheet glaciation and in the alpine record.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Alkenone SST measurements from marine cores west of Vancouver Island indicate a temperature drop of ~3° C during the YD (Kienast and McKay, 2001). Cool-water foraminifera, suggesting YD cooling, have been found on the British Columbia shelf and in the Santa Barbara Basin. Cooling during the YD is also shown from pollen records in SW British Columbia, NW Washington, Oregon, and SE Alaska. The ages of multiple YD moraines of the Pleistocene Cordilleran Ice Sheet in NW Washington have been established by more than 100 radiocarbon dates at between 11,500 and 12,700 years old.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image014.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;margin:0;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image014" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image014_thumb.jpg?w=244&h=222" alt="clip_image014" border="0" height="222" width="244" /></a> <strong><em><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image016.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image016" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image016_thumb.jpg?w=285&h=221" alt="clip_image016" border="0" height="221" width="285" /></a></em></strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">[A] Reconstruction of the YD phase of the [B] Ages of the double YD moraines of the</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Cordilleran Ice Sheet in NW Washington Scandinavian Ice Sheet. Ages shown are 14C ages</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">11,500 and 12,700 years ago. equivalent to 11,500 and 12,700 years ago.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Alpine Glaciers</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Dated YD moraines occur in the Wind River Range at Titcomb Basin and Temple Lake, and similar, moraines occur throughout the Rocky Mts. What is apparent from these examples of YD moraines is that not only was the YD climatic event recorded by alpine glaciers in western North America, but in many places double moraines record a dual YD climatic change.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Cirque glaciers expanded twice during the YD at Titcomb Lakes in the Wind River Range, WY. Erratics on moraines and glaciated bedrock ~33 km upvalley from LGM moraines at Freemont Lake, Wyoming, have been <sup>10</sup>Be dated between 12,300 and 10,600 years old Birkeland, 1974; Zielinski and Davis, 1987; Davis, 1988; Davis and Osburn, 1987).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><strong><em><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image018.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image018" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image018_thumb.jpg?w=244&h=220" alt="clip_image018" border="0" height="220" width="244" /></a> </em></strong><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image020.jpg"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image020" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image020_thumb.jpg?w=262&h=219" alt="clip_image020" border="0" height="219" width="262" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Double Younger Dryas moraines at Titcomob Ages of YD moraines in the Rocky Mts., ID</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Lakes in the Wind River Mts., WY.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Cirque moraines at multiple elevations in the Sawtooth Range of Idaho also record two YD climatic events. Bench Lakes, north of Redfish Lake, consist of several glacial lakes at successively higher elevations, representing sequentially rising YD snowlines. The <sup>10</sup>Be ages of boulders from range from 11,700 to 11,400 years. Thus, at least two phases of moraine building took place here during the YD.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Double, post–LGM moraines occur about 12 km upvalley from LGM moraines at Icicle Creek in the North Cascades of Washington. Boulders on the outmost YD moraine were <sup>10</sup>Be-dated at 12,600 and 12,300 years and boulders on a younger YD moraine were dated at 11,300 and 11,900 years. All of the dates from the inner and outer moraines fall within the YD.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Double YD moraines occur at Julier Pass near St. Moritz, Switzerland and multiple YD moraines at Loch Lomond in the Scotish Highlands have been radiocarbon dated between 12,900 and 11,500 years old.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>The Greenland GISP2 oxygen isotope record </strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The double phase of the Younger Dryas also appears in the Greenland GISP2 oxygen isotope record between 11,500 and 12,700 years ago, correlating very well with the global glacial record.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><strong><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image022.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; padding-left: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; display: inline; padding-top: 0pt; border: 0pt none; width: 366px; height: 282px;" title="clip_image022" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image022_thumb.jpg?w=626&h=484" alt="clip_image022" border="0" /></a></strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Double Younger Dryas event recorded in the GISP2 ice core</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>CONCLUSIONS </strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">So what does all this mean and why is it important? The double nature of YD moraines in widely separated areas in both hemispheres suggests a common, global, climatic cause. The YD is characterized by two distinct moraines in widely separated parts of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and in the Pacific and Atlantic regions, indicating that the YD consisted of more than a single climatic event. This means that the twin YD cooling occurred virtually simultaneously globally and both ice sheets and alpine glaciers were sensitive to the dual YD cooling. The two YD phases in the GISP2 ice core confirm the globally synchronous climatic events. The global synchronicity of the late Pleistocene twin YD phases indicates a global atmospheric cause. The absence of a time lag between the N and S Hemispheres climatic fluctuations precludes an oceanic cause propagated from one hemisphere to the other. The sensitivity and synchronicity of worldwide climatic events with no apparent time lag between hemispheres means that abrupt climatic changes such as the YD were caused by simultaneous global changes.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">So what does this mean about the validity of the contentions of Shakun et al. that the Northern and Southern Hemispheres were out of phase? Compare the age of the YD in their Figure 2 to the numerous YD chronologies from all over the world.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image023.png"><img style="background-image:none;padding-left:0;padding-right:0;display:inline;padding-top:0;border:0;" title="clip_image023" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/clip_image023_thumb.png?w=244&h=153" alt="clip_image023" border="0" height="153" width="244" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Shakun et al. Figure 2. The Red line is Antarctic temperature curve based on ice cores; the yellow dots are CO2 measurements from ice cores; the blue line is composite global temperature from 80 proxies.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The age of the YD shown on their Antarctic curve is from 13,000 to 14,700, nowhere near the age of the YD in New Zealand and the rest of the world. Considering the lack of adequate dating of the Antarctic ice cores and lack of correlation with New Zealand and global YD chronology, what this means is that their entire Antarctic curve is incorrect and needs to be shifted by nearly 2,000 years, taking with it the CO2 curve. This means that their entire argument for CO2 preceding warming during the last glaciation falls completely apart.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">At this point, we haven’t yet gotten to issues with the AMOC, orbital forcing, or other possible causal mechanisms of climate change. Consideration of those issues would make this longer than most people would want to read at one sitting, so looks like they will have to await Part 3.<br /></p><p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Once the third part is available I will post to it for those that are interested.<br /></p>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-46752928719690958972012-04-19T02:30:00.009-07:002012-07-19T04:51:15.815-07:00Reporting Impending Climate Doom<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
There is a saying that nothing sells newspapers like bad news. Since the start of the current climate debate it is rare for there to be a good news climate story, most will concentrate on any story that is promoting gloom and doom, or even rampant alarmism, as can be seen <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate/climate-change" style="color: #996633;">here</a> in the Climate Change section of <span style="font-style: italic;">The Age </span>newspaper.</div>
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But the next time you see a story involving Ice bergs in unusual locations, shrinking ice in the Arctic with ships able to travel where they never have before, less seals or polar bears, penguins showing up in countries like France, less snow on the Matterhorn, or just generally weird weather, just remember it has been reported before and there isn't "unprecedented" as is so often claimed.</div>
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Some examples of previous stories include:</div>
<b>1846:</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQwGcCSJNqqLO6GIPzqPyhnRpfPX-jqf1OXXo2Xbyqyf7i7UclkHFiNn2d_rVYgJ9HERup9fCSPJ0cqO_JussdX-khbToPemNXqzVnSOdPhFwAPQWVQzo7JTyyVAe_RAxMBq8m-ga4KFQ/s1600/climatechange-1846-blame-the-whites.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQwGcCSJNqqLO6GIPzqPyhnRpfPX-jqf1OXXo2Xbyqyf7i7UclkHFiNn2d_rVYgJ9HERup9fCSPJ0cqO_JussdX-khbToPemNXqzVnSOdPhFwAPQWVQzo7JTyyVAe_RAxMBq8m-ga4KFQ/s320/climatechange-1846-blame-the-whites.png" width="304" /></a></div>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">1912:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMZ7NA5KHA0HH6QNkRBp5d27vz2E7gq4r_qV3bBxasQiZy0tkKOQh94uFbeK_jcq6Emu9ZDcaQX4RHzjoyUMOiCc9RO-wzLhchC5ZGdCLySJGMsRfF8_dx39gp66XSXFqTVlSbRUWUOmI/s1600/Icebergs+far+south+in+1912.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733055634727770082" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMZ7NA5KHA0HH6QNkRBp5d27vz2E7gq4r_qV3bBxasQiZy0tkKOQh94uFbeK_jcq6Emu9ZDcaQX4RHzjoyUMOiCc9RO-wzLhchC5ZGdCLySJGMsRfF8_dx39gp66XSXFqTVlSbRUWUOmI/s400/Icebergs+far+south+in+1912.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 400px; width: 229px;" /></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Of course in April 1912 a very famous iceberg was to strike the Titanic (who </span><a href="http://historyofgeology.fieldofscience.com/2011/04/15-april-2010-iceberg-that-sank-titanic.html" style="color: #996633; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">thought </a><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">they were </span><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/12/titanic-anniversary-unusual-climate-extreme-ice-conditions-tragic-accident/" style="color: #996633; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">well south of the known Iceberg zone</a><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">)</span>.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMdoxF7QScLnIdxtjpto82GCu1pxtYW2RqsHht4kJIvK0ezKx16dbZ8LoAYiFSm8dO4cRcE74vHlfyDlKQ4qO7BOO6E36PiGWOCB9KpB6SALaSL-fHfFfJ4Li8t6uTCeBW8_Cv0l2eO8Q/s1600/Titanic-NYTimes-front-page.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733086111487064034" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMdoxF7QScLnIdxtjpto82GCu1pxtYW2RqsHht4kJIvK0ezKx16dbZ8LoAYiFSm8dO4cRcE74vHlfyDlKQ4qO7BOO6E36PiGWOCB9KpB6SALaSL-fHfFfJ4Li8t6uTCeBW8_Cv0l2eO8Q/s400/Titanic-NYTimes-front-page.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 300px; width: 400px;" /></a></div>
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Should something similar happen today it would be reported as "proof" of Climate Change.</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: bold;"><br />1922:</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The following report was on the warming of the Arctic</span>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHzJFSjTZURyCDZUkKTVayieOXLHvbZy4JAdgoOKK2PT0qB4g_ZrrD1SqsFL5qeKzESKhDPKNi8XpVMJXlktXarKHHy8quzwaltLpP9FRFbdQkoOz9Y1alWv9OsqYIlRob8n3XACmUdaM/s1600/Changing+Arctic1922+part1.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733061483960367730" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHzJFSjTZURyCDZUkKTVayieOXLHvbZy4JAdgoOKK2PT0qB4g_ZrrD1SqsFL5qeKzESKhDPKNi8XpVMJXlktXarKHHy8quzwaltLpP9FRFbdQkoOz9Y1alWv9OsqYIlRob8n3XACmUdaM/s400/Changing+Arctic1922+part1.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 381px; width: 400px;" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxTnnMqHkHBKphSw-tnRDchH63o-fwNqN7VFPp7UokfyMqTuvK8bHBWYKC4HPDdQojxhawY37S8YcZ8Q_eV0k5wxGVSe4EyTns7MBlJor2MJeClSNVwKWLFgDMIXX5QHZFr4GvUu8z0aU/s1600/Changing+Arctic+1922+part2.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733061473686781602" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxTnnMqHkHBKphSw-tnRDchH63o-fwNqN7VFPp7UokfyMqTuvK8bHBWYKC4HPDdQojxhawY37S8YcZ8Q_eV0k5wxGVSe4EyTns7MBlJor2MJeClSNVwKWLFgDMIXX5QHZFr4GvUu8z0aU/s400/Changing+Arctic+1922+part2.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 400px; width: 397px;" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoZqCnNMcih-452S8kC-FPHK-wLIp79yoM1PJwRWhFsBOa_6D5BeO8ST_jyAKT7pB1Ll47PDR9wrqskfV2I0RIMEYRgYgdzqJLqSibhIhoucqR1CuHljrk2EigFcIwjgMa-DNUNejW_-M/s1600/Changing+Arctic+1922+part3.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733061464948614642" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoZqCnNMcih-452S8kC-FPHK-wLIp79yoM1PJwRWhFsBOa_6D5BeO8ST_jyAKT7pB1Ll47PDR9wrqskfV2I0RIMEYRgYgdzqJLqSibhIhoucqR1CuHljrk2EigFcIwjgMa-DNUNejW_-M/s400/Changing+Arctic+1922+part3.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 341px; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
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It also published in the Washington Post:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg12iSZZJExGHMtY_mqGIh6mMt7LgMxMr7_TQVP98mPZUiSLc67FbKT8ZTYCrGecqWWv-TDthWndHuNDonpXYGiggZL7o_0CGrPUlk0l6Dq6SdYnGT9PvKH47R6mXMAbOywYRTRq2XUTHs/s1600/wapost1922+part+1.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733064993010436898" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg12iSZZJExGHMtY_mqGIh6mMt7LgMxMr7_TQVP98mPZUiSLc67FbKT8ZTYCrGecqWWv-TDthWndHuNDonpXYGiggZL7o_0CGrPUlk0l6Dq6SdYnGT9PvKH47R6mXMAbOywYRTRq2XUTHs/s400/wapost1922+part+1.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 390px; width: 240px;" /></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The same year penguins were reported as landing in France</span>.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz_MPQblESeX41rDkGtKao6JGxBTb9-C4zcdWLgt7NMhSbxElXxjqPuBOa4MhZgYdZDIf05XpiB9H36yOXX47ybM4NF5y_anp8vqaYMtwIM_tX2MxI9oQ0Qfny1neTAbyiWfpCy_3lsus/s1600/Penguins+in+France+1922.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733061495280386514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz_MPQblESeX41rDkGtKao6JGxBTb9-C4zcdWLgt7NMhSbxElXxjqPuBOa4MhZgYdZDIf05XpiB9H36yOXX47ybM4NF5y_anp8vqaYMtwIM_tX2MxI9oQ0Qfny1neTAbyiWfpCy_3lsus/s400/Penguins+in+France+1922.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 257px; width: 238px;" /></a><br />
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A similar Penguin occurrence happened only a few years ago in Brazil and it was widely touted as "undeniable proof" of Climate Change by the media. As for the reporting done by the Washington Post about vanishing seals and icebergs just ten years after one sank the Titanic is reminiscent of the type of reporting we see much more of today.</div>
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">1930's</span>: The following report is of a temperature rise seen world wide:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLLonYZgiQXEgG3E3c0E3lW7UJMZdiJjKYRyaeN-Cm8achyKMQwFH67NHfiiMbqb62Gbu1njGq0AobXhzek_tC0e-kugPqEcdWt_yvWW6Z86FhQj6fdHvzOgTNZQ7sZvhktV7pPbG5mC8/s1600/Temp+Rise+seen+world+over+1938.bmp"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733061489516068050" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLLonYZgiQXEgG3E3c0E3lW7UJMZdiJjKYRyaeN-Cm8achyKMQwFH67NHfiiMbqb62Gbu1njGq0AobXhzek_tC0e-kugPqEcdWt_yvWW6Z86FhQj6fdHvzOgTNZQ7sZvhktV7pPbG5mC8/s400/Temp+Rise+seen+world+over+1938.bmp" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 400px; width: 218px;" /></a></div>
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Then in 1932 (a mere twenty years after the Titanic sinking by an iceberg comes this report of Russians successfully circumnavigating a section of the Arctic that had never been done before.</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFv5gKYl5vM16ztnaS9qEgtF929FUXaQsVZwqFomhv1LYe3eSRBbkG-In6aBuoP_xXDu1oVb4ARsg5ZzfN3Jh4Fe-JIPEajQ2Y1e2ie8-orvUb-guEhyOCx3z25gfWYjaUAzdISZR-opE/s1600/Soviets+circle+arctic+in+1930s.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733055643062224290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFv5gKYl5vM16ztnaS9qEgtF929FUXaQsVZwqFomhv1LYe3eSRBbkG-In6aBuoP_xXDu1oVb4ARsg5ZzfN3Jh4Fe-JIPEajQ2Y1e2ie8-orvUb-guEhyOCx3z25gfWYjaUAzdISZR-opE/s400/Soviets+circle+arctic+in+1930s.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 196px; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
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At the same time in the US it was the "Grapes of Wrath" drought years and there were reports of climate refugees:</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQWqilDn54m3CxRyzO_W4Qoo0rDMK8ZwR4TRXjWQ0vjFD_as2zveKEffSZ8TI8KnXrfrBhcH5_ZXnY-NZMUHLY-C9cYDjv6mL_8cBtiSHx1kKR5b6axxHgn8hCoACjOp3Xzsb6zUittWg/s1600/1930%2527+climate+refugees.gif"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733055649194444594" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQWqilDn54m3CxRyzO_W4Qoo0rDMK8ZwR4TRXjWQ0vjFD_as2zveKEffSZ8TI8KnXrfrBhcH5_ZXnY-NZMUHLY-C9cYDjv6mL_8cBtiSHx1kKR5b6axxHgn8hCoACjOp3Xzsb6zUittWg/s400/1930%2527+climate+refugees.gif" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 400px; width: 287px;" /></a><br />
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By <span style="font-weight: bold;">1938</span> there were reports citing data collected by the Russians in the Arctic that the world was indeed getting warmer. Despite the advent of the industrial revolution by more than seventy years at this stage there was no thought to blame man's emissions of CO2.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9_nxU3E5jAM5Fa7w0-jR_EMuCvMckEBr5eVIZFn9FrwH81MqHb3LxtaYuVM1LxgDZuYE_2Tov57IG1IFiUJVd5-LMu4qWSxrZJQABkt_N6uhjfItC_avKvjlULSnUQXB0d0gMxzPn4Y/s1600/Ruusians+site+data+fro+warming+world+in+1938.bmp"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733055655522737666" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9_nxU3E5jAM5Fa7w0-jR_EMuCvMckEBr5eVIZFn9FrwH81MqHb3LxtaYuVM1LxgDZuYE_2Tov57IG1IFiUJVd5-LMu4qWSxrZJQABkt_N6uhjfItC_avKvjlULSnUQXB0d0gMxzPn4Y/s400/Ruusians+site+data+fro+warming+world+in+1938.bmp" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 400px; width: 231px;" /></a></div>
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By<span style="font-weight: bold;"> 1947</span> a familiar tune to today was being sung in the Fairfax newspapers:</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZFbbu3vb_kR5xXdU4cEItbU6x82cogK6_pvVFgIo1M0jhVqSPvR3rEAHDfrZkPWLK7H-4CVw3DS-Rx3iETvfArsrr5NjaJ_qRXZEuxGgZir00uH1IkOIkA8yTMkLuJMbPrH2Ad7drNtQ/s1600/Melting+arctic+to+raise+sea+levels+1947.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733069594846506146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZFbbu3vb_kR5xXdU4cEItbU6x82cogK6_pvVFgIo1M0jhVqSPvR3rEAHDfrZkPWLK7H-4CVw3DS-Rx3iETvfArsrr5NjaJ_qRXZEuxGgZir00uH1IkOIkA8yTMkLuJMbPrH2Ad7drNtQ/s400/Melting+arctic+to+raise+sea+levels+1947.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 349px; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
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But at the time little did they realise that the climate had already turned to a cooling cycle. The same paper that had reported on eight years earlier that the Arctic was melting away and was going to drown us all was now reporting a weirding of the weather because it was raining so much and was getting colder. They quoted the same sources as today in the CSIRO who said it was "clear proof that our weather wasn't as it use to be."</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu2wNYDPkjcIJSNJw8Pqk2zL5w7uS7KTqcQDEaAFxBe7AbAETCcPBfxa7VLMzlk2KhOZ51TEnWEaqsz8_b9ESGIWmlm5uvpGB93o9sUpW21xHH3E4HNSl0-ubuWGTkIz9ogtIqm3Kzz6w/s1600/SMH+1955++Nuclear+tests+affect+temp..jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733069596130712162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu2wNYDPkjcIJSNJw8Pqk2zL5w7uS7KTqcQDEaAFxBe7AbAETCcPBfxa7VLMzlk2KhOZ51TEnWEaqsz8_b9ESGIWmlm5uvpGB93o9sUpW21xHH3E4HNSl0-ubuWGTkIz9ogtIqm3Kzz6w/s400/SMH+1955++Nuclear+tests+affect+temp..jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 367px; width: 400px;" /></a></div>
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By the mid 1970's the tune had changed dramatically. We were all still doomed by Climate Change only now it was because of the impending Ice Age not that silly warming that we had experienced back in the 1930's and 40's. The late Professor <a href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2009/08/professor-stephen-schneider-and.html">Stephen Schneider</a> was big on this theory. He was also the one who later said: <i><span style="color: #000099;"><br />"On the one hand we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but…which means that we must include all the doubts, caveats, ifs and buts. </span></i><br />
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<i><span style="color: #000099;">On the other hand, we are not just scientists, but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to </span></i><i><span style="color: #000099;">reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change. To do that we have to get some </span></i><i><span style="color: #000099;">broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. <span style="color: red;">So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #000099;"><span style="color: red;">statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."</span> </span></i></div>
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1974 and 75:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf9-sdTGVuMN_Z_ycEyzpeNgmXxoAeBNXVDQfL5rAgl9wG01PyUTP0vjjz9IdHGUCumAk4DnS-hBJWLkCnhg6QcRQH-44fYLKoiKFyWKQUdGXg7caieSeLWT6RV6nGKl5KTYY5aKqGXTI/s1600/1974+-75+NewIceAgeComing.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733076430719604546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf9-sdTGVuMN_Z_ycEyzpeNgmXxoAeBNXVDQfL5rAgl9wG01PyUTP0vjjz9IdHGUCumAk4DnS-hBJWLkCnhg6QcRQH-44fYLKoiKFyWKQUdGXg7caieSeLWT6RV6nGKl5KTYY5aKqGXTI/s400/1974+-75+NewIceAgeComing.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 187px; width: 400px;" /></a></div>
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Newsweek 1975:</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3_fnsF_sRdH2AIGKZYQ0e9b885BfwL-SxF6Xak2toDuyuoqECcIL3Q8XK1iug7vY0l4RonmgmLF6Eadvq4QujUkWvSM-ZJxX3zrsWYpoW8tlkmJybYF0NT9gbw6MSy5MiX76n35nO8bE/s1600/1977+iceage+science+mag.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733076445346360722" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3_fnsF_sRdH2AIGKZYQ0e9b885BfwL-SxF6Xak2toDuyuoqECcIL3Q8XK1iug7vY0l4RonmgmLF6Eadvq4QujUkWvSM-ZJxX3zrsWYpoW8tlkmJybYF0NT9gbw6MSy5MiX76n35nO8bE/s400/1977+iceage+science+mag.png" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 400px; width: 291px;" /></a><br />
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<a href="http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />TIME Magazine June 1974</span></a>:<br />
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<i>TIME Magazine June 1974: <strong>Another Ice Age?</strong></i></div>
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<i><strong>In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year,
adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains
in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst
flooding in centuries.</strong> In Canada’s wheat belt, a particularly
chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a
disappointingly small harvest. <strong>Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs</strong>.
A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West,
while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the
mildest winters within anyone’s recollection.</i></div>
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<i><strong>University of Toronto Climatologist Kenneth Hare, a</strong> <strong>former president of the Royal Meteorological Society</strong>,
believes that the continuing drought and the recent failure of the
Russian harvest gave the world a grim premonition of what might happen.
Warns Hare: <strong>“I don’t believe that the world’s present population is sustainable if there are more than three years like 1972 in a row.”</strong></i></div>
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Yet by the 1980's Professor James Hansen was again warning of Global Warming and that it was going to kill us all if we did nothing about it. Slowly the media began to change it reporting once again. This was despite other climate scientists saying that this warming had happened before and was worse back then:</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTTUwefMDayzUkw6Ng2ZtZlNM2S5RLkB5_S_27aeCBpKwH-O9h9Ya2kWLH2_IgGEQ3NmEO3I4fOSLzHdMi_YvxyrCJNS0YvXCr4tb84Ml6-7G4IImZd3TLkMmzQYAGODJ6VgM5GEL5UaY/s1600/US+drought+1930s%252C+50s+and+80s.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733069602329430674" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTTUwefMDayzUkw6Ng2ZtZlNM2S5RLkB5_S_27aeCBpKwH-O9h9Ya2kWLH2_IgGEQ3NmEO3I4fOSLzHdMi_YvxyrCJNS0YvXCr4tb84Ml6-7G4IImZd3TLkMmzQYAGODJ6VgM5GEL5UaY/s400/US+drought+1930s%252C+50s+and+80s.png" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 200px; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
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Imagery was the key to getting people to believe this time and shots such as the following were used to show proof of Global Warming:</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Cc6XQ3KmGDoZoGPpPa2_eJVTyIP1D13y2zQnz0n0Uu3_8aTQCcGhC9C-l0RiFnqHrzW1ap0RJvZqdG6n8lzHw_NGk9ek4FaimfgLObR1NbgfEMH2GJUNaN-kuhspQoYSwiPhQLJ86Pc/s1600/Matterhorn+doublexposure.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733076453038676306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Cc6XQ3KmGDoZoGPpPa2_eJVTyIP1D13y2zQnz0n0Uu3_8aTQCcGhC9C-l0RiFnqHrzW1ap0RJvZqdG6n8lzHw_NGk9ek4FaimfgLObR1NbgfEMH2GJUNaN-kuhspQoYSwiPhQLJ86Pc/s400/Matterhorn+doublexposure.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; height: 256px; width: 456px;" /></a><br />
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How could anyone deny this was nots so when the evidence was so clear, yet if we look at the same Matterhorn from2011 we see something closer to 1960 than 2005:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu8EDi3f9WxPjs_SKtGwglVJ_CqArzyHgfc97Q0sOo53zWIvTKbgPBb0nDb6PoH2WFV3PjzYab0kbMbP2m_qTApDPg5UTas9k1T7SfKgDPgItJHbvY4sujYzntwA8sGzb4FEUF4tGH_z4/s1600/201103_matterhornCloud.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733076451004721794" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu8EDi3f9WxPjs_SKtGwglVJ_CqArzyHgfc97Q0sOo53zWIvTKbgPBb0nDb6PoH2WFV3PjzYab0kbMbP2m_qTApDPg5UTas9k1T7SfKgDPgItJHbvY4sujYzntwA8sGzb4FEUF4tGH_z4/s400/201103_matterhornCloud.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; height: 400px; width: 267px;" /></a></div>
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How strange we are not shown this shot in comparison with the 2005 photo as "proof" that the Earth has recovered or that another Ice age is on it's way.<br />
Istead we are now presented in the form of blizzards as "undeniable proof" and further signs of Global Warming despite the world again <a href="http://thegwpf.org/science-news/5493-max-planck-institute-director-confirms-qclimate-models-inconsistent-with-observationsq.html" style="color: #996633;">not having warmed for the last 10 to 15 years.</a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrys4voSAOOT7iMitn19H8NtfGV6Ibu2Lk0wTIotwHTi26pUoA7vU4PfshFfcRX1mPaa42hp7dh3fWblUsF_y8fGb-kJqoRNIIj1thyphenhyphenwJEAGPtZJvDSBTgU3CeA2JBxc23EfqXk4SJ-kk/s1600/time_gw_covers_small.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5733082003652572466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrys4voSAOOT7iMitn19H8NtfGV6Ibu2Lk0wTIotwHTi26pUoA7vU4PfshFfcRX1mPaa42hp7dh3fWblUsF_y8fGb-kJqoRNIIj1thyphenhyphenwJEAGPtZJvDSBTgU3CeA2JBxc23EfqXk4SJ-kk/s400/time_gw_covers_small.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; height: 332px; width: 444px;" /></a><br />
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I thing the caption on the poster says it all.</div>
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Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-46299816945192020632012-04-13T23:24:00.002-07:002012-04-13T23:59:40.938-07:00New Peer Reviewed Paper Claims Global Warming Not Human Influenced<span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";"></span></span>In a <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/How_natural.pdf">peer reviewed paper</a> by Horst-Joachim Ludecke, Rainer Link, and Friedrich-Karl Ewert for the <span style="font-style: italic;">International Journal of Modern Physics </span>entitled: <span style="font-weight: bold;">How Natural is the Recent Centennial</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Warming? An Analysis of 2249 Surface Temperature Records</span>, the three authors conclude that they cannot find a definite human influence on the temperature over the past century and that at most any human warming is only "marginal."<br /><br />Abstract.<br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br />We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records from GISS (NASA) with the 100-year period covering 1906-2005 and the two 50-year periods from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005. No global records are applied. The data document a strong urban heat island e ffect (UHI) and a warming with increasing station elevation. For the period 1906-2005, we evaluate a global warming of 0.58 0C as the mean for all records. This decreases to 0.41 0C if</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">restricted to stations with a population of less than 1000 and below 800 meter above sea level. About a quarter of all the records for the 100-year period show a fall in temperatures. Our hypothesis for the analysis is - as generally in the papers concerned with long-term persistence of temperature records - that the observed temperature records are a combination of long-term correlated records with an additional trend, which is caused for instance by anthropogenic CO2, the UHI or other forcings. We apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and evaluate Hurst exponents between 0.6 and 0.65 for the majority of stations, which is in excellent</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">agreement with the literature and use a method only recently published, which is based on DFA, synthetic records and Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40% and 90%, depending on the stations characteristics and the periods considered. 'Natural' means that we do not have within a de fined confidence interval a de finitely positive anthropogenic contribution and, therefore, only a marginal anthropogenic contribution can not be excluded.</span><br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In this paper, we have used 2249 unadjusted monthly temperature records of 100 and 50 years in length and evaluated the temperature changes for the periods 1906-2005, 1906-1955, and 1956-2005. Our analysis was based exclusively on local records and applied DFA, Monte Carlo methods and synthetic records. The main results and conclusions are the following.</span></span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">a) The mean of all stations shows 0.58 0C global warming from 1906 to 2005. If we consider only those stations with a population of under 1000 and below 800 meter above sea level this gure drops to 0.41 0C and would probably decrease even further if we were to take into account the warm biases caused by the worldwide reduction in rural stations during the 1990s, by changes to the screens and their environments, and by the appearance of automatic observing systems.</span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">b) From 1906 to 2005, about a quarter of all records show falling temperatures. This in itself is an indication that the observed temperature series are predominantly natural fluctuations. 'Natural' means that we do not have within a defi ned confidence interval a de finitely positive anthropogenic contribution and, therefore, only a marginal anthropogenic contribution can not be excluded. We evaluated - with a con fidence interval of 95% - the probability that the observed global warming from 1906 to 2005 was a natural fluctuation as lying between 40% and 70%, depending on the station's characteristics. For the period of 1906 to 1955 the probabilities are arranged between 80% and 90% and for 1956 to 2005 between 60% and 70%.</span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">c) By separating stations into specifi c station groups, such as those with a de fined minimum population, a strong UHI and elevation warming can be identified.</span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">d) The vast majority of temperature stations are found on land and in the northern hemisphere, and have Hurst exponent of </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> 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priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">a =</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">0:63 in such locations. However, two thirds of the Earth are covered with water, and the relatively few stations on islands or near oceans have higher Hurst exponent</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">of </span><span style="font-family: Symbol; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">a =</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">0:7. Therefore, a real exponent for the entire Earth could be somewhat higher than</span><span style="font-family: Symbol; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> a =</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> 0:63. Records with higher exponents embody even higher probabilities for natural fluctuations.</span>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-55199318807730974832012-04-13T21:01:00.006-07:002012-04-13T23:22:45.611-07:00Cosmic Rays And Clouds Influence ClimateIn earlier posts I have highlighted the link between <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2009/09/cosmic-rays.html">cosmic rays</a> and <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2010/01/cloud-mystery-video-series.html">cloud creation</a> and the <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2011/01/cern-cloud-experiment-preliminary.html">CERN CLOUD experiments</a>. In late 2011 there were some developments that appeared to re-enforce the emerging theory that there was other major influences on Earth's climate that did not involve CO2 and had not been investigated by the models or by the IPCC. The first of these are:<b><i><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language: EN-AUfont-family:";font-size:12.0pt;color:#3333FF;" ></span></i></b><i><span style="line-height:115%;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-AU;mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SAfont-family:";font-size:12.0pt;" ><span style="color:#3333FF;"></span></span></i><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Influence Climate Change.</span> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>by Nigel Calder</strong></p> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <div> <p>Long-anticipated results of the CLOUD experiment at CERN in Geneva appear in tomorrow’s issue of the journal <em>Nature </em>(25 August). The Director General of CERN stirred controversy last month, by saying that the CLOUD team’s report should be politically correct about climate change (see my 17 July post below). The implication was that they should on no account endorse the Danish heresy – Henrik Svensmark’s hypothesis that most of the global warming of the 20th Century can be explained by the reduction in cosmic rays due to livelier solar activity, resulting in less low cloud cover and warmer surface temperatures.</p> <p>Willy-nilly the results speak for themselves, and it’s no wonder the Director General was fretful. <span id="more-45793"></span></p> <p>Jasper Kirkby of CERN and his 62 co-authors, from 17 institutes in Europe and the USA, announce big effects of pions from an accelerator, which simulate the cosmic rays and ionize the air in the experimental chamber. The pions strongly promote the formation of clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules – aerosols of the kind that may grow into cloud condensation nuclei on which cloud droplets form. What’s more, there’s a very important clarification of the chemistry involved.</p> <p><strong>A breach of etiquette</strong></p> <p>My interest in CLOUD goes back nearly 14 years, to a lecture I gave at CERN about Svensmark’s discovery of the link between cosmic rays and cloudiness. It piqued Kirkby’s curiosity, and both Svensmark and I were among those who helped him to prepare his proposal for CLOUD.</p> <p>By an unpleasant irony, the only Svensmark contribution acknowledged in the<em>Nature</em> report is the 1997 paper (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen) on which I based my CERN lecture. There’s no mention of the successful experiments in ion chemistry and molecular cluster formation by the Danish team in Copenhagen, Boulby and latterly in Aarhus where they beat CLOUD to the first results obtained using a particle beam (instead of gamma rays and natural cosmic rays) to ionize the air in the experimental chamber – see <span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://calderup.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/2011/05/17/accelerator-results-on-cloud-nucleation-2/">http://calderup.wordpress.com/2011/05/17/accelerator-results-on-cloud-nucleation-2/</a></p> <p>What will historians of science make of this breach of scientific etiquette? That Kirkby was cross because Svensmark, losing patience with the long delay in getting approval and funding for CLOUD, took matters into his own hands? Or because Svensmark’s candour about cosmic rays casting doubt on catastrophic man-made global warming frightened the national funding agencies? Or was Kirkby simply doing his best (despite the results) to obey his Director General by slighting all things Danish?</p> <p>Personal rivalries aside, the important question is what the new CLOUD paper means for the Svensmark hypothesis. Pick your way through the cautious prose and you’ll find this:</p> <p>“<strong>Ion-induced nucleation </strong>[cosmic ray action]<strong> will manifest itself as a steady production of new particles </strong>[molecular clusters] <strong>that is difficult to isolate in atmospheric observations because of other sources of variability but is nevertheless taking place and could be quite large when averaged globally over the troposphere </strong>[the lower atmosphere]<strong>.”</strong></p> <p>It’s so transparently favourable to what the Danes have said all along that I’m surprised the warmists’ house magazine <em>Nature</em> is able to publish it, even omitting the telltale graph shown at the start of this post. Added to the already favourable Danish experimental findings, the more detailed CERN result is excellent. Thanks a million, Jasper.</p> <p><strong>Enlightening chemistry</strong></p> <p>And in friendlier times we’d be sharing champagne for a fine discovery with CLOUD, that traces of ammonia can increase the production of the sulphuric clusters a thousandfold. It’s highlighted in the report’s title: <strong>“Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation” </strong>and it was made possible by the more elaborate chemical analysis in the big-team set-up in Geneva. In essence, the ammonia helps to stabilize the molecular clusters.</p> <p>Although not saying it openly, the CLOUD team implies a put-down for the Danes with this result, repeatedly declaring that without ammonia there’d be little cluster production at low altitudes. But although the Aarhus experimenters did indeed assume the simpler reaction (H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> + H<sub>2</sub>O), differing results in successive experimental runs made them suspect that varying amounts of trace impurities were present in the air cylinders used to fill their chamber. Now it looks as if a key impurity may have been ammonia. But some members of the CLOUD consortium also favoured (H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> + H<sub>2</sub>O) and early runs in Geneva used no intentional ammonia. So they’ve little reason to scoff.</p> <p>In any case, whether the basic chemistry is (H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> + H<sub>2</sub>O) or (H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> + H<sub>2</sub>O + NH<sub>3</sub>) is an academic rather than a practical point. There are always traces of ammonia in the real air, and according to the CLOUD report you need only one molecule in 30 billion. If that helps to oil Svensmark’s climatic motor, it’s good to know, but it calls for no apologies and alters the climatic implications not a jot.</p> <div id="attachment_1753"><a href="http://calderup.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/cloudlogo.jpg"><img title="CLOUDlogo" src="http://calderup.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/cloudlogo.jpg?w=189&h=104&h=104" alt="" height="104" width="189" /></a>The experiment’s logo. The acronym “Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets” always implied strong interest in Svensmark’s hypothesis. And the roles of the Galaxy and the Sun are acknowledged.</div> <p>Technically, CLOUD is a welcome advance on the Danish experiments. Not only is the chemistry wider ranging but molecular clusters as small as 1.7 nanometres in diameter are detectable, compared with 4 nm in Denmark. And the set-up enables the scientists to study the ion chemistry at lower temperatures, corresponding to increasing altitudes in the atmosphere. Cluster production soars as the temperature goes down, until <strong>“almost every negative ion gives rise to a new particle”</strong> [<em>i.e. molecular cluster</em>]. The lowest temperature reported in the paper is -25 <sup>o</sup>C. That corresponds to an altitude of 6000 metres, so unless you wish to visualize a rain of cloud-seeding aerosols from on high, it’s not very relevant to Svensmark’s interest in the lowest 3000 metres.</p> <p><strong>How the warmists built their dam</strong></p> <p>Shifting from my insider’s perspective on the CLOUD experiment, to see it on the broader canvas of the politicized climate science of the early 21st Century, the chief reaction becomes a weary sigh of relief. Although they never said so, the High Priests of the Inconvenient Truth – in such temples as NASA-GISS, Penn State and the University of East Anglia – always knew that Svensmark’s cosmic ray hypothesis was the principal threat to their sketchy and poorly modelled notions of self-amplifying action of greenhouse gases.</p> <p>In telling how the obviously large influences of the Sun in previous centuries and millennia could be explained, and in applying the same mechanism to the 20th warming, Svensmark put the alarmist predictions at risk – and with them the billions of dollars flowing from anxious governments into the global warming enterprise.</p> <p>For the dam that was meant to ward off a growing stream of discoveries coming from the spring in Copenhagen, the foundation was laid on the day after the Danes first announced the link between cosmic rays and clouds at a space conference in Birmingham, England, in 1996. <strong>“Scientifically extremely naïve and irresponsible,”</strong>Bert Bolin declared, as Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p> <p>As several journalists misbehaved by reporting the story from Birmingham, the top priority was to tame the media. The first courses of masonry ensured that anything that Svensmark and his colleagues might say would be ignored or, failing that, be promptly rubbished by a warmist scientist. Posh papers like <em>The Times</em> of London and the <em>New York Times</em>, and posh TV channels like the BBC’s, readily fell into line. Enthusiastically warmist magazines like <em>New Scientist </em>and <em>Scientific American</em> needed no coaching.</p> <p>Similarly the journals <em>Nature</em> and <em>Science</em>, which in my youth prided themselves on reports that challenged prevailing paradigms, gladly provided cement for higher masonry, to hold the wicked hypothesis in check at the scientific level. Starve Svensmark of funding. Reject his scientific papers but give free rein to anyone who criticizes him. Trivialize the findings in the Holy Writ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. None of this is paranoia on my part, but a matter of close personal observation since 1996.</p> <p>“It’s the Sun, stupid<em>!</em>” The story isn’t really about a bunch of naughty Danish physicists. They are just spokesmen for the most luminous agent of climate change. As the Sun was what the warmists really wanted to tame with their dam, they couldn’t do it. And coming to the Danes’ aid, by briefly blasting away many cosmic rays with great puffs of gas, the Sun enabled the team to trace in detail the consequent reduction in cloud seeding and liquid water in clouds. See my post<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://calderup.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/2010/05/03/do-clouds-disappear/">http://calderup.wordpress.com/2010/05/03/do-clouds-disappear/</a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span>By the way, that research also disposes of a morsel of doubt in the new CLOUD paper, about whether the small specks made by cosmic rays really grow sufficiently to seed cloud droplets.</p> <p>As knowledge accumulated behind their dam and threatened to overtop it, the warmists had one last course to lay. Paradoxically it was CLOUD. Long delays with this experiment to explore the microchemical mechanism of the Svensmark effect became the chief excuse for deferring any re-evaluation of the Sun’s role in climate change. When the microchemical mechanism was revealed prematurely by the SKY experiment in Copenhagen and published in 2006, the warmists said, “No particle accelerator? That won’t do<em>!</em> Wait for CLOUD.” When the experiment in Aarhus confirmed the mechanism using a particle accelerator they said, “Oh that’s just the Danes again<em>! </em>Wait for CLOUD.”</p> <p>Well they’ve waited and their dam has failed them.</p> <p><strong>Hall of Shame</strong></p> <p>Retracing those 14 years, what if physics had functioned as it is supposed to do? What if CLOUD, quickly approved and funded, had verified the Svensmark effect with all the authority of CERN, in the early 2000s. What if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had done a responsible job, acknowledging the role of the Sun and curtailing the prophecies of catastrophic warming?</p> <p>For a start there would have no surprise about the “travesty” that global warming has stopped since the mid-1990s, with the Sun becoming sulky. Vast sums might have been saved on misdirected research and technology, and on climate change fests and wheezes of every kind. The world’s poor and their fragile living environment could have had far more useful help than precautions against warming.</p> <p>And there would have been less time for so many eminent folk from science, politics, industry, finance, the media and the arts to be taken in by man-made climate catastrophe. (In London, for example, from the Royal Society to the National Theatre.) Sadly for them, in the past ten years they’ve crowded with their warmist badges into a Hall of Shame, like bankers before the crash.</p> </div> </div> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a href="http://calderup.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/cern-experiment-confirms-cosmic-ray-action/">Calder’s Updates, 24 August 2011</a></div> <div style="font-style: italic;">=========================================================</div> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">As I reported on May 14th, 2011 in</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/14/update-on-the-cern-cloud-experiment/" target="_blank">Update on the CERN CLOUD experiment</a>:</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">From Physics World</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/multimedia/45950" target="_blank"><em>Head in a CLOUD</em></a>:</p> <div style="text-align: left; font-style: italic; color: rgb(102, 51, 102);"><blockquote><p>In this special video report for <em>physicsworld.com</em> CLOUD project leader Jasper Kirkby explains what his team is trying to achieve with its experiment. “We’re trying to understand what the connection is between a cosmic ray going through the atmosphere and the creation of so-called aerosol seeds – the seed for a cloud droplet or an ice particle,” Kirkby explains.</p> <p>The CLOUD experiment recreates these cloud-forming processes by directing the beamline at CERN’s proton synchrotron into a stainless-steel chamber containing very pure air and selected trace gases.</p> <p>One of the aims of the experiment is to discover details of cloud formation that could feed back into climate models. “Everybody agrees that clouds have a huge effect on the climate. But the understanding of how big that effect is is really very poorly known,” says Kirkby.</p></blockquote></div> <p style="text-align: left; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Here’s the video, click image below to launch it.</p><p style="text-align: center; font-style: italic;"><object id="flashObj" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,47,0" height="412" width="486"><param name="movie" value="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1"><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF"><param name="flashVars" value="videoId=941423264001&playerID=106573614001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAGKlf6FE~,iSMGT5PckNvcgUb_ru5CAy2Tyv4G5OW3&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true"><param name="base" value="http://admin.brightcove.com"><param name="seamlesstabbing" value="false"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="swLiveConnect" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashvars="videoId=941423264001&playerID=106573614001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAGKlf6FE~,iSMGT5PckNvcgUb_ru5CAy2Tyv4G5OW3&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" swliveconnect="true" allowscriptaccess="always" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash" height="412" width="486"></embed></object></p><p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Cosmic rays get ahead in CLOUD</span><br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2011/August/24081102.asp" rel="nofollow">http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2011/August/24081102.asp</a><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Cloud formation may be linked to cosmic rays</span><br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html</a><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Cloud formation study casts a shadow over certain climate models</span><br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.u.tv/News/Cloud-formation-study-casts-a-shadow-over-certain-climate-models/ddd312e6-c710-49d0-9a5d-e41e544024a9" rel="nofollow">http://www.u.tv/News/Cloud-formation-study-casts-a-shadow-over-certain-climate-models/ddd312e6-c710-49d0-9a5d-e41e544024a9</a></p> <p style="font-style: italic;">======================================================</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Update: From Nigel Calder’s blog</p> <div style="font-style: italic;" id="attachment_1750"><a href="http://calderup.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/cloudgraph.jpg"><img title="CLOUDgraph" src="http://calderup.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/cloudgraph.jpg?w=450&h=225&h=225" alt="" height="225" width="450" /></a><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A graph they’d prefer you not to notice. Tucked away near the end of online supplementary material, and omitted from the printed CLOUD paper in Nature, it clearly shows how cosmic rays promote the formation of clusters of molecules (“particles”) that in the real atmosphere can grow and seed clouds. In an early-morning experimental run at CERN, starting at 03.45, ultraviolet light began making sulphuric acid molecules in the chamber, while a strong electric field cleansed the air of ions. It also tended to remove molecular clusters made in the neutral environment (n) but some of these accumulated at a low rate. As soon as the electric field was switched off at 04.33, natural cosmic rays (gcr) raining down through the roof of the experimental hall in Geneva helped to build clusters at a higher rate. How do we know they were contributing? Because when, at 04.58, CLOUD simulated stronger cosmic rays with a beam of charged pion particles (ch) from the accelerator, the rate of cluster production became faster still. The various colours are for clusters of different diameters (in nanometres) as recorded by various instruments. The largest (black) took longer to grow than the smallest (blue). This is Fig. S2c from supplementary online material for J. Kirkby et al., Nature, 476, 429-433, © Nature 2011.</span></div><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Then there was this paper in August - September 2011:</p><p style="text-align: left; font-style: italic;" align="CENTER"><strong><em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Europe:</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.astrophys-space-sci-trans.net/7/315/2011/astra-7-315-2011.pdf">diurnal temperatures after Forbush decreases</a></em></strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A. Dragić, I. Aničin, R. Banjanac, V. Udovičić, D. Joković´, D. Maletić and J. Puzović, “Forbush decreases – clouds relation in the neutron monitor era”, <em>Astrophysics and Space Sciences Transactions,</em> 7, 315–318, 2011.<br /><br />The focus was on the “natural experiments” in which big puffs of gas from the Sun block some of the cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy towards the Earth. The resulting falls in cosmic ray influx, called Forbush decreases, last for a few days. The game is to look for observable reductions in cloudiness in the aftermath of these events. The results are most clearly favourable to the Svensmark hypothesis for the Forbush decreases with the largest percentage reductions in cosmic rays.<br /></p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(A <strong>Forbush decrease</strong> is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity following a coronal mass ejection (CME). It occurs due to the magnetic field of the plasma solar wind sweeping some of the galactic cosmic rays away from Earth.)</p>Then there was this one:<br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-weight: bold;">Nigel Calder reports on "Yet another trick of cosmic rays"</span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-weight: bold;">Reblogged from <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://calderup.wordpress.com/2012/03/01/yet-another-trick-of-cosmic-rays/">Calder's Updates</a></span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-weight: bold;">In the climax to the Danes' experiments, cloud seeds flout the theories:</span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-size:78%;" ><br style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Near to the end of the story that starts with stars exploding in the Galaxy and ends with extra clouds gathering, a small but important paragraph was missing till now. From experiments in Copenhagen reported in 2006 and reconfirmed in 2011 in Aarhus and Geneva (CERN, CLOUD), cosmic rays coming from old supernovas can indeed make molecular clusters a few millionths of a millimetre wide, floating in the air. But can these aerosols really grow nearly a million times in mass to be large enough to become “cloud condensation nuclei” on which water droplets can form – as required by Henrik Svensmark’s cosmic theory of climate change?</span> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Opponents pointed out that theoretical models said No, the growth of additional aerosols would be blocked by a resulting shortage of condensable gases like sulphuric acid in the atmosphere.</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Now for the first time, an unexpected trick that Mother Nature had up her sleeve is revealed by experiment. The discovery is elegantly explained by a new way in which sulphuric acid forms in the atmosphere, as announced in a paper by Svensmark and two of his colleagues in Denmark’s National Space Institute in Copenhagen, Martin Enghoff and Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen. They have submitted it to </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Physical Review Letters</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">. A preprint is available on arXiv here</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1202.5156v1">http://arxiv.org/abs/1202.5156v1</a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A brief history. <span id="more-58089"></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Last year’s attempts to dismiss the Aarhus and CERN results as inconsequential for climate change didn’t dismay the Danes. They knew there was something wrong with the current understanding because they had observational support for the whole chain from solar activity to cosmic rays to aerosols to clouds in the real atmosphere (Svensmark, Bondo and Svensmark 2009). In order to dig into the physics, they decided to rebuild, in the basement of the Space Institute, the 8 cubic metre experimental chamber SKYII which six years ago was used as the CLOUD prototype chamber at CERN,</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In the limelight of the atmospheric drama, sulphuric acid is one of</span> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> the commonest of trace gases and very important for both the formation and the growth of aerosols. When the Sun rises in the morning, its ultraviolet rays convert sulphur dioxide, ozone and water vapour in the air into sulphuric acid molecules. These are continuously lost as they club together with further water and a little ammonia into very small molecular clusters. Nevertheless, the concentration of sulphuric acid rises to a peak and then diminishes as the Sun goes down in the evening.</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A clue that something more is going on comes from the persistence all through the night of sulphuric acid at about 10 per cent of the daytime maximum. If these molecules too are continuously lost, they must be replenished by a chemical reaction that doesn’t need ultraviolet light.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">What did the new experiment called SKY2 show? Without going into technical details that you’ll find in the paper, let’s just say that the primary result flatly contradicts the theoretical prediction that the infant aerosols couldn’t grow up into cloud condensation nuclei. Here’s a figure from the paper.</p> <div style="font-style: italic;" id="attachment_1918"><a href="http://calderup.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/ccn.jpg"><img title="CCN" src="http://calderup.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/ccn.jpg?w=405&h=222&h=222" alt="" height="222" width="405" /></a><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Molecular clusters grow over time, in the SKY2 experiment in Copenhagen. The horizontal axis is scaled in nanometres (millionths of a millimetre) and each blue point shows the relative number of clusters of that size before and after the experimental runs. Anything over 1.0 means that growth has continued. In contrast, the red points illustrate a pessimistic prediction of previous theories, that growth should cease when the size passes 50 nanometres. On the other hand, the black curve running through the blue points shows what is to be expected if there is a continual supply of sulphuric acid. The persistent growth of clusters occurs only in the presence of gamma rays that simulate cosmic rays and set electrons free to influence the chemistry.</span></div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">So what’s the explanation? What new pathway supplies the sulphuric acid needed to keep the growth going? The Danes recall a suggestion in their 2006 SKY report that electrons can act like catalysts, being used over and over again to promote chemical action. In the new paper they say: <em>A possible explanation could be that the charged clusters are producing additional [sulphuric acid] molecules from reactions involving negative ion chemistry of [ozone, sulphur dioxide and water], where a negative ion can be reused in a catalytic production of several [sulphuric acid molecules]. </em></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Depending on the concentrations of trace gases, several may mean dozens. And where do the electrons come from? They are liberated by cosmic rays raining down by night as well as by day. If the results of the experiment and these ideas are confirmed, there’s an amazing pay-off. The cosmic rays help to make the extra sulphuric acid that allows (1) a number of additional aerosols to form and (2) a larger number of aerosols to grow into cloud condensation nuclei. Without this second effect the aerosols would grow slowly and most of the extra aerosols would be lost before becoming large enough to seed clouds.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">That ions liberated by cosmic rays promote a second pathway for forming sulphuric acid was already known from an experiment performed in Copenhagen in a collaboration with the University of Copenhagen and the Technical University of Tokyo (see the Enghoff et al. reference below). Depending on whether the sulphuric acid comes from ultraviolet action or is ion-induced, it has different signatures in the relative abundances of isotopes of sulphur. What’s more, the number of molecules made by the ion route greatly surpassed the number of ions available, again implying reuse of the electrons in a catalytic fashion.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">To summarize the latest paper, the Svensmark, Enghoff and Pepke Pedersen abstract reads:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><em>In experiments where ultraviolet light produces aerosols from trace amounts of ozone, sulphur dioxide, and water vapour, the number of additional small particles produced by ionization by gamma sources all grow up to diameters larger than 50 nm, appropriate for cloud condensation nuclei. This result contradicts both ion-free control experiments and also theoretical models that predict a decline in the response of larger particles due to an insufficiency of condensable gases (which leads to slower growth) and to larger losses by coagulation between the particles. This unpredicted experimental finding points to a process not included in current theoretical models, possibly an ion-induced formation of sulphuric acid in small clusters.</em></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Scandals of a political character engulf climate physics these days, but future historians may shake their heads more sadly over scientific negligence. Isn’t it amazing that such a fundamental activity of sulphuric acid, going on over your head right now, has passed unnoticed since 1875 when cloud seeding was discovered, since 1996 when Svensmark found the link between cosmic rays and cloud cover, and since 2006 when the Danes suggested the catalytic role of electrons? Perhaps the experts were confused by the ever-present dislike of the role of the Sun in climate change.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">So Svensmark and the small team in Copenhagen have had nearly all of the breakthroughs to themselves. And the chain of experimental and observational evidence is now much more secure:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Supernova remnants </strong><strong>→</strong><strong> cosmic rays </strong><strong>→</strong><strong> solar modulation of cosmic rays </strong><strong>→ </strong><strong>variations in cluster and sulphuric acid production </strong><strong>→</strong><strong> variation in cloud condensation nuclei </strong><strong>→</strong><strong> variation in low cloud formation </strong><strong>→</strong><strong> variation in climate.</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Svensmark won’t comment publicly on the new paper until it’s accepted for publication. But I can report that, in conversation, he sounds like a man who has reached the end of a very long trek in defiance of continual opposition and mockery.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">References</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Henrik Svensmark, Martin B. Enghoff and Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen, “Response of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (> 50 nm) to changes in ion-nucleation”, submitted for publication 2012. Preprint available at</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1202.5156v1">http://arxiv.org/abs/1202.5156v1</a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">H. Svensmark, T. Bondo and J. Svensmark, “Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds”, <em>Geophysical Research Letters</em>, 36, L15101, 2009</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Henrik Svensmark, Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Nigel Marsh, Martin Enghoff and Ulrik Uggerhøj, ‘Experimental Evidence for the Role of Ions in Particle Nucleation under Atmospheric Conditions’, <em>Proceedings of the Royal Society A</em>, Vol. 463, pp. 385–96, 2007 (online release 2006). This was the original SKY experiment in a basement in Copenhagen.</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">M. B. Enghoff, N. Bork, S. Hattori, C. Meusinger, M. Nakagawa, J. O. P. Pedersen, S. Danielache, Y. Ueno, M. S. Johnson, N. Yoshida, and H. Svensmark, “An isotope view on ionising radiation as a source of sulphuric acid”, </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">, 12, 5039–5064, 2012. See </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/5039/2012/acpd-12-5039-2012.html">http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/5039/2012/acpd-12-5039-2012.html</a></p>Then finally there was this one reported via<span style="font-style: italic;"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/new-paper-finds-significant-natural.html">The Hockey Schtick</a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">: </span><br style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">New paper finds significant, natural decrease in cloudiness over past 50 years </span> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" class="post-header"> </div> <br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A paper published last week finds that cloud cover over China significantly decreased during the period 1954-2005. This finding is in direct contradiction to the theory of man-made global warming which presumes that warming allegedly from CO2 'should' cause an increase in water vapor and cloudiness. The authors also find the decrease in cloud cover was </span><b style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">not</b><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> related to man-made aerosols, and thus was likely a natural phenomenon, potentially a result of increased solar activity via the </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=svensmark">Svensmark theory</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> or </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/03/new-paper-claims-ozone-is-most.html">other mechanisms</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">. As climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer has pointed out </span><span style=" font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-family:inherit;" ><span style="background- line-height: 18px;color:white;" >his </span><a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/04/the-great-global-warming-blunder-how-mother-nature-fooled-the-world%E2%80%99s-top-climate-scientists/" style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">book</a><span style="background- line-height: 18px;color:white;" >, </span></span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <blockquote style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-family:Arial,Tahoma,Helvetica,FreeSans,sans-serif;font-size:13px;"> <span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">"</span><em style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling</em><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">."</span></blockquote> <span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:large;"><b><a href="http://www.ann-geophys.net/30/573/2012/angeo-30-573-2012.html">Significant decreasing cloud cover during 1954–2005 due to more clear-sky days and less overcast days in China and its relation to aerosol</a></b></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:large;"><b><br style="background-color: white;"></b></span><span class="pb_authors" style="background-color: white; font-weight: bold; line-height: 17px; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica;font-size:12px;" >X. Xia</span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <span class="pb_affiliations" style="background-color: white; line-height: 17px; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica;font-size:11px;" >LAGEO, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China</span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <span class="pb_affiliations" style="background-color: white; line-height: 17px; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica;font-size:11px;" ><br /></span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <span class="pb_abstract" style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica;font-size:12px;" ><span class="pb_abstract_title" style="font-weight: bold;">Abstract.</span> An updated analysis of cloud cover during 1954–2005 in China was performed using homogeneous cloud cover data from 314 stations. Long-term changes in frequencies of different cloud cover categories and their contributions to long-term changes in cloud cover were assessed. Furthermore, aerosol effects on cloud cover trends were discussed based on comparison of cloud cover trends in polluted and mildly polluted regions. Frequencies of clear sky (cloud cover <20%) and overcast days (cloud cover >80%) were observed to increase by ~2.2 days and decrease by ~3.3 days per decade, respectively, which accounts for ~80% of cloud cover reduction. Larger decreasing trends in cloud cover due to larger increase in clear sky frequency and larger decreases in overcast frequency were observed at stations with lower aerosol optical depth. There is no significant difference in trends regarding cloud cover, clear sky frequency, and overcast frequency between mountain and plain stations. These results are <b>inconsistent</b> with our expectation that larger decreasing trends in cloud cover should have been observed in regions with higher aerosol loading where more aerosols could lead to stronger obscuring effect on ground observation of cloud cover and stronger radiative effect as compared with the mildly polluted regions. <b>Aerosol effect on decreasing cloud cover in China appear not to be supported by this analysis</b> and therefore, further study on this issue is required.</span><span class="pb_toc_link" style="background- line-height: 17px;font-family:Verdana, Arial, Helvetica;font-size:12px;color:white;" ></span><span style=" font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);font-family:inherit;font-size:100%;" ><span style="background- line-height: 18px;color:white;" > </span></span><span class="pb_toc_link" style="background- line-height: 17px; font-style: italic;font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica;font-size:100%;color:white;" ><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Full paper can be seen </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.ann-geophys.net/30/573/2012/angeo-30-573-2012.pdf">here</a>. </span><br style="font-style: italic;">No doubt there will be more updates on this subject soon.<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-7632482056078922692012-04-09T05:50:00.006-07:002012-04-09T06:25:15.097-07:00Polar Bear Numbers IncreasingPolar Bears have long since been <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2009/09/polar-bears.html">the symbol</a> of choice of the pro Climate Change advocates. As can be seen in these sample images:<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhQo2-OnT5PxwdTFwl2D9uMhqDTjCdoMsTxe5Kco9_iLVuTddeM_o6IghLvJ7uJUaD_gV2tlazOEdaOvvftAgaAz3d6NR53IW7luqYxHAMZcg3vxApIudvNQ4VvBql0sxSelhW7Gg6NVo/s1600/Polar_time_thumb.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhQo2-OnT5PxwdTFwl2D9uMhqDTjCdoMsTxe5Kco9_iLVuTddeM_o6IghLvJ7uJUaD_gV2tlazOEdaOvvftAgaAz3d6NR53IW7luqYxHAMZcg3vxApIudvNQ4VvBql0sxSelhW7Gg6NVo/s400/Polar_time_thumb.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729384646667387922" border="0" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQfqvBU89mca-aaplGruN38L-3KcfByZ2W2-M20luSY9Pwra1oIE620pFHuNL4pxkiGOsO0je6bBBga8ZKOGTilxEE0OEjBgCqDfGJwZsFvhVb77CMUvHvYPJXXqFrIv-tf1etExgkgfs/s1600/polar_thumb.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 250px; height: 250px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQfqvBU89mca-aaplGruN38L-3KcfByZ2W2-M20luSY9Pwra1oIE620pFHuNL4pxkiGOsO0je6bBBga8ZKOGTilxEE0OEjBgCqDfGJwZsFvhVb77CMUvHvYPJXXqFrIv-tf1etExgkgfs/s400/polar_thumb.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729384657819763106" border="0" /></a><div style="text-align: left;">We are told time and again that they are dying out due to man made climate change, because their home is melting. 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Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style> <![endif]--><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3k9j_ng5kWQvDUKUuHPt0pUi5bFf9GZkjMNFaxBAUNtLIqitPy2NjArB1og6qSq_wtctU44R67P9Tn9qVD8qmDT6NTpUcpw4rjBbxiP1vCB_A5D7SUnNV8LCnstXrs7tdFxJgO2TyKZU/s1600/image_thumb2.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 310px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3k9j_ng5kWQvDUKUuHPt0pUi5bFf9GZkjMNFaxBAUNtLIqitPy2NjArB1og6qSq_wtctU44R67P9Tn9qVD8qmDT6NTpUcpw4rjBbxiP1vCB_A5D7SUnNV8LCnstXrs7tdFxJgO2TyKZU/s400/image_thumb2.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729386761438182690" border="0" /></a></div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">From the Daily Globe and Mail in Canada:</p> <h4 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/" target="_blank">Healthy polar bear count confounds doomsayers</a></h4> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The debate about climate change and its impact on polar bears has intensified with the release of a survey that shows the bear population in a key part of northern Canada is far larger than many scientists thought, and might be growing.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The number of bears along the western shore of Hudson Bay, believed to be among the most threatened bear subpopulations, stands at 1,013 and could be even higher, according to the results of an aerial survey released Wednesday by the Government of Nunavut. That’s 66 per cent higher than estimates by other researchers who forecasted the numbers would fall to as lowas 610 because of warming temperatures that melt ice faster and ruin bears’ ability to hunt. The Hudson Bay region, which straddles Nunavut and Manitoba, is critical because it’s considered a bellwether for how polar bears are doing elsewhere in the Arctic.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">…</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">I located the survey done by the Government of Nunavut, here:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a title="http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf" href="http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf">http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf</a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">It seems sound in methodology. Some excerpts from it are posted below.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Summary</strong><br /></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Polar bear population assessment in North America has historically relied on physical mark-recapture. These studies are logistically and financially intensive, and while widely accepted in the scientific community, local Inuit have voiced opposition to wildlife handling. To better reflect Inuit values and provide a rapid tool for monitoring polar bear population size, we developed and implemented an aerial survey in the Foxe Basin subpopulation (FB) during late summer, 2009 and 2010. FB, a seasonally ice-free subpopulation, spans some 1.1 million km2 in Nunavut. Polar bears concentrate along the coast during late summer, so we delineated survey zones based on proximity to the coastline.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">We used coastal contour transects, inland transects oriented perpendicular to the coast, and total counts on a sample of small islands and ice floes. We focused effort in the high-density coastal region and designed protocols to enable simultaneous collection of double-observer and distance sampling data from a helicopter. We flew >300 hours and 40,000 km during each year’s survey and observed 816 and 1,003 individuals in 2009 and 2010, respectively. In both years, we observed high numbers of bears on islands in northern Foxe Basin and on Southampton Island, neighboring islands and near Lyon Inlet.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Encounter rates were highest near the coast, although bears were observed >40 km inland. The shape of the detection function differed substantially between years, likely attributable to observer experience and variable sighting conditions. However, our abundance estimates were highly consistent between years and survey methods, (~2,580 bears (95% CI: about 2,100 –3,200), and were comparable to an estimate from the early 1990s. Our results suggest that </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Nunavut’s management regime has enabled polar bear abundance in FB to remain relatively stable.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Whereas mark−recapture data provide direct estimates of population growth, aerial survey data yield information population on trend only via a time series of population estimates; accordingly, reliance on such data may require more conservative harvest management. The FB aerial surveys provide a framework for future studies during the ice-free season. Ongoing analysis will evaluate the distribution of bears in Foxe Basin and assess alternatives for long-term monitoring.</p><h1 style="text-align: center; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGeW6uUqYUELV2rw467RArPqRJ8qo32Q4ydgvqPz5g3pgkxxOXQyC-dL5RcXryEk-iKvOLhqWW6aUFtsg77wHNNnzgNYMJSEI7jfsXAPTmRsQSKkne7ZGyxBjohD_QmaufP42HvDGthms/s1600/image_thumb3.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 311px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGeW6uUqYUELV2rw467RArPqRJ8qo32Q4ydgvqPz5g3pgkxxOXQyC-dL5RcXryEk-iKvOLhqWW6aUFtsg77wHNNnzgNYMJSEI7jfsXAPTmRsQSKkne7ZGyxBjohD_QmaufP42HvDGthms/s400/image_thumb3.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729386764933288386" border="0" /></a></h1> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Figure 2. Transects flown during the Foxe Basin polar bear subpopulation aerial survey, August to October, 2010.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">…</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Results</strong><br />We completed the FB aerial surveys during August – September, 2009 and August – October, 2010. We successfully sampled nearly all planned transects in both years (Figure 2), despite particularly challenging weather conditions in 2010. We observed 816 and 1,003 polar bears, including 616 and 790 independent bears, in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Observed litter sizes were similar between years: in 2009, cub of the year (coy) and yearling / 2-year-old litter sizes averaged 1.57 (SD: 0.55, n = 75) and 1.55 (SD: 0.54, n = 53); mean litter sizes were 1.53 (SD: 0.57, n = 80) and 1.40 (SD: 0.50, n=65) for coy and yearlings / 2-year-olds, respectively, in 2010.<br /><br />The distribution of polar bears was generally consistent between years (Figure 3). High concentrations of bears were observed in central Foxe Basin near Lyon Inlet and on Southampton Island and neighboring Coats, Vansittart, and White Islands and in northern Foxe Basin on Rowley, Koch, Prince Charles, and the Spicer Islands. Relatively few bears were spotted along Hudson Strait and in the Bowman Bay region of western Baffin Island, and sightings were rare near communities. Bears were most frequently observed along coastal contour transects, in the nearshore inland stratum and on large and small islands, but sightings were documented across all strata (Figure 3).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">…</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Total Abundance</strong><br />Despite different analytical techniques and detection functions, the four preliminary abundance estimates were remarkably consistent (Table 2). Model averaging yielded a preliminary overall abundance estimate of about 2,580 bears in the Foxe Basin subpopulation, with a 95% lognormal confidence interval of 2,093 to 3,180 (CV: 10.7%).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Survey done by the Government of Nunavut, here:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a title="http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf" href="http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf">http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf</a></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">It seems like a superior methodology to say, </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/28/al-gores-drowned-polar-bear-ait-source-under-investigation/" target="_blank">seeing three drowned polar bears at sea after a storm and then extrapolating that to the entire population</a> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">like one</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/29/federal-official-monnett-suspension-unrelated-to-drowned-bears/" target="_blank">now discredited and disgraced researcher did</a>. <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Of course, honest science like what was done in this survey doesn’t make headlines or wailing and gnashing of teeth by NGO’s and Al Gore, and even </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Science</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> magazine who much prefer to stick to the view of a declining</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" title="Permalink to New bear species discovered: Ursus Bogus" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/12/new-bear-species-discovered-ursus-bogus/" rel="bookmark"><em>Ursus Bogus</em></a> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">population:</span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipXjbw9dAq8O2dsgOcH3FFN2mgMuG2DJgAXcGYpHuepqDNrZYJSrk3yST3rXrKlVy3GBx-TPsxBJbDWOINqwfsOr1Q_5yDw4FQVJk-osPzIKLZ_KLwt8UrqXhDMbXxsIPM97TEHeK64mM/s1600/floatypoley.gif"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 353px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipXjbw9dAq8O2dsgOcH3FFN2mgMuG2DJgAXcGYpHuepqDNrZYJSrk3yST3rXrKlVy3GBx-TPsxBJbDWOINqwfsOr1Q_5yDw4FQVJk-osPzIKLZ_KLwt8UrqXhDMbXxsIPM97TEHeK64mM/s400/floatypoley.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729386769614995746" border="0" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><p>==============================================================</p> <p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Back to the Globe and Mail</span> <a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/" target="_blank">article</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">:</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">…</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The study shows that “the bear population is not in crisis as people believed,” said Drikus Gissing, Nunavut’s director of wildlife management. “There is no doom and gloom.”</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Mr. Gissing added that the government isn’t dismissing concerns about climate change, but he </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">said Nunavut wants to base bear-management practices on current information “and not predictions about what might happen.”</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">…</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The debate over the polar-bear population has been raging for years, frequently pitting scientists against Inuit. In 2004, Environment Canada researchers concluded that the numbers in the region had dropped by 22 per cent since 1984, to 935. They also estimated that by 2011, the population would decrease to about 610. That sparked worldwide concern about the future of the bears and prompted the Canadian and American governments to introduce legislation to protect them.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">But many Inuit communities said the researchers were wrong. They said the bear population was increasing and they cited reports from hunters who kept seeing more bears. Mr. Gissing said that encouraged the government to conduct the recent study, which involved 8,000 kilometres of aerial surveying last August along the coast and offshore islands.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">===================================================================</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">What I found most interesting is the clear message that polar bears are thriving in an environment where sea ice (NSIDC includes Hudson Bay as sea ice) seasonally disappears entirely.</p><p style="text-align: center; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnrH_hpN_73PWnixkibTI8-xHghUq2xQm-gcRy5il78b-f0RQ7maVpAWXZNq4bWYDjcNk290ZWKPjfHats9YuC4ZnrkGkTyVW7bSsZEUkyN3NaKntzoibhrIX00Q75uNtBJB3iCysezpA/s1600/image_thumb4.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 201px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnrH_hpN_73PWnixkibTI8-xHghUq2xQm-gcRy5il78b-f0RQ7maVpAWXZNq4bWYDjcNk290ZWKPjfHats9YuC4ZnrkGkTyVW7bSsZEUkyN3NaKntzoibhrIX00Q75uNtBJB3iCysezpA/s400/image_thumb4.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729386775120171618" border="0" /></a></p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Note in the Cryosphere Today comparison image above, Hudson Bay is completely ice free around the time of Arctic maximum melt ~ Sept 30.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">It seems the Polar bears can adapt to non-existent sea ice and do just fine.</p> <p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Of course this isn’t news, as I’ve previously reported:</span> <a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/15/polar-bears-survived-the-ice-free-arctic/" target="_blank">Polar Bears Survived the Ice Free Arctic</a></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">So when you see claims like this one from the</span> <strong><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.nrdc.org/wildlife/habitat/esa/alaska01.asp" target="_blank">National Resources Defense Council</a>…</strong></p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(102, 51, 102);"><p>Scientists predict that Arctic summers could be ice-free by the middle of this century-<strong>without sea ice, polar bears cannot survive</strong>.</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Or </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://cnsnews.com/news/article/advocate-we-do-know-without-ice-polar-bears-can-t-survive" target="_blank">this one</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> from Polar Bears International</span></p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(102, 51, 102);"><p>Asked by CNSNews.com about the IUCN body’s findings regarding populations remaining stable, Buchanan pointed out the group’s acknowledgment of insufficient data in some of the 19 sub-populations. He concluded that <strong>“without ice polar bears can’t survive.”</strong></p></blockquote></div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div></div> </div></div>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-56174786206325410932012-04-08T23:59:00.006-07:002012-04-09T05:49:32.435-07:00CO2 Causes Temperature Change or Vice Versa?Back in Al Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth" he showed a diagram that he said showed that as levels of CO2 changed then the temperature followed.<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDi2YZCS3wcyh-w3qIHe-w8JPVeWVZsiAc46_UkHrg05j3W8rapoYuQjqCNYH_t1IKaGzNqNkVYQzX4a526faM2J0IE_MNwn7bPDfBubvv0TMpuxMfMve52RwPbAVn1ljamTBswnrro8Q/s1600/gore_with_co2_temp_graph.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 248px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDi2YZCS3wcyh-w3qIHe-w8JPVeWVZsiAc46_UkHrg05j3W8rapoYuQjqCNYH_t1IKaGzNqNkVYQzX4a526faM2J0IE_MNwn7bPDfBubvv0TMpuxMfMve52RwPbAVn1ljamTBswnrro8Q/s400/gore_with_co2_temp_graph.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729378375998291970" border="0" /></a></div><br />Many scientists were critical of this as it was established that it was in fact the other way around and that there was a lag of about 800 years between rises or falls in temperature and the corresponding rise or fall in CO2 levels. Just one of those studies can be seen <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CO2vsTMacRae.pdf">here</a>.<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKJtsj2n0SSpwy36_FDCYuX_QBOqdQk5rtRW7Gv8p2QqeCxggd0mp17uKSguOsJ4iBhp88ImXKpdovcM2aUVZWU4kZHJM-cbU6hbqkVeoLhC-JWIliBOgW5vCeYnwe_ay9odjnxbqCRWM/s1600/GW-GoreCO2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKJtsj2n0SSpwy36_FDCYuX_QBOqdQk5rtRW7Gv8p2QqeCxggd0mp17uKSguOsJ4iBhp88ImXKpdovcM2aUVZWU4kZHJM-cbU6hbqkVeoLhC-JWIliBOgW5vCeYnwe_ay9odjnxbqCRWM/s400/GW-GoreCO2.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729378381341665410" border="0" /></a></div><br />In 2012 a new paper published <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html">in the science journal Nature</a> reported to show that AL Gore was 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semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style> <![endif]--> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Feng He, Shaun A. Marcott, Alan C. Mix, Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Andreas Schmittner & Edouard Bard</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO2 and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO2 in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than<br />global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO2 during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>METHODS SUMMARY</strong><b><br /></b>The data set compiled in this study contains most published high-resolution<br />(median resolution, 200 yr), well-dated (n5636 radiocarbon dates) temperature records from the last deglaciation (see Supplementary Information for the full database). Sixty-seven records are from the ocean and are interpreted to reflect sea surface temperatures, and the remaining 13 record air or lake temperatures on land. All records span 18–11 kyr ago and,85% of them span 22–6.5 kyr ago. We recalibrated all radiocarbon dates with the IntCal04 calibration (Supplementary Information) and converted proxy units to temperature using the reservoir corrections and proxy calibrations suggested in the original publications. An exception to this was the alkenone records, which were recalibrated with a global core-top calibration41. The data were projected onto a 5u35u grid, linearly interpolated to 100-yr resolution and combined as area-weighted averages. We used Monte Carlo simulations to quantify pooled uncertainties in the age models and proxy temperatures, although we do not account for analytical uncertainties or uncertainties related to lack of global coverage and spatial bias in the data set. In particular, the records are strongly biased towards ocean margins where high sedimentation rates facilitate the development of high-resolution records. Given these issues, we focus on the temporal evolution of temperature through the deglaciation rather than on its amplitude of change. The global temperature stack is not particularly sensitive to interpolation resolution, areal weighting, the number of proxy records, radiocarbon calibration, infilling of missing data or proxy type. Details on the experimental design of the transient model simulations can be found in ref. 25.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The temperature stacks and proxy data set are available in Supplementary Information.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Full Methods and any associated references are available in the online version of the paper at<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.nature.com/nature">www.nature.com/nature</a>.</p> <h2 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:100%;">PDF files</span></h2> <ol style="margin-top: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" start="1" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list .5in"><a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/extref/nature10915-s1.pdf">Supplementary Information (9.2M)</a></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This file contains Supplementary Text and Data, Supplementary Figures 1-30, Supplementary Tables 1-3, additional References and Supplementary Appendices 1-2.</p> <h2 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:100%;">Excel files</span></h2> <ol style="margin-top: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" start="1" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .5in"><a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/extref/nature10915-s2.xls">Supplementary Data (2.4M)</a></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This file contains Supplementary Data.</p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> 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mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;">This paper, however, almost immediately attracted the attention of sceptics who claimed that it relied on "many assumptions that were unsupported by data" in its creation. Professor Don Easterbrook shares his concerns about the Shakun et al paper:</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Did Shakun et al. really prove that CO2 preceded late glacial warming? [Part 1]</span></i></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Posted on <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/08/did-shakun-et-al-really-prove-that-co2-precede-late-glacial-warming-part-1/" title="7:50 pm"><span style="color:blue;">April 8, 2012</span></a> by <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/author/wattsupwiththat/" title="View all posts by Anthony Watts"><span style="color:blue;">Anthony Watts</span></a></span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">By Don J. Easterbrook, PhD.</span></i></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In a paper “Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation”, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html" target="_blank"><span style="color:blue;">Shakun et al</span></a>.(Nature 2012) contend that rising temperature at the end of </span></i></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">the last Pleistocene glaciation were preceded by increasing atmospheric CO2. In his usual masterful fashion, Willis Eschenbach has dug deeply into the data used in the paper and shredded the conclusions in it (see <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/06/a-reply-shakun-et-al-dr-munchausen-explains-science-by-proxy/%20%20and%20%20http:/wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/07/shakun-redux-master-tricksed-us-i-told-you-he-was-tricksy/#more-60932/"><span style="color:#996633;">http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/06/a-reply-shakun-et-al-dr-munchausen-explains-science-by-proxy/</span><span style="color:blue;"><br /></span></a>and <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/06/a-reply-shakun-et-al-dr-munchausen-explains-science-by-proxy/%20%20and%20%20http:/wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/07/shakun-redux-master-tricksed-us-i-told-you-he-was-tricksy/#more-60932/"><span style="color:#996633;">http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/07/shakun-redux-master-tricksed-us-i-told-you-he-was-tricksy/#more-60932/</span></a>. So rather than dwell on the things that Willis has already </span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">shown so well, I thought I’d take a look at some of the assumptions and misconceptions that paper is built upon.</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">When reading a paper like this, I always like to ask myself, what are the basic assumptions </span></i></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">that underlie the methodology involved? What contentions are simply stated as fact or generated in a computer model, rather than demonstrated with real, physical evidence? I will confess here that I don’t believe computer models really prove anything. Sure, they can suggest many things and point out areas of interest, but I live the real world and prefer real physical evidence upon which to base important conclusions. That doesn’t mean I discount models out of hand—it simply means that I look for physical evidence to confirm or deny what the models are saying. So I asked myself a series of questions about the basic issues in this paper. Here are some of the questions that I came up with (the answers follow).</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">1. Can the Antarctic ice cores be dated with sufficient accuracy to establish a firm temperature chronology?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">2. Are the 80 temperature proxies used in the paper sufficiently accurate to establish a solid </span></i></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">global temperature chronology?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">3. Can CO2 in the ice cores be measured with validity and accuracy?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">4. Can the difference in the age of the trapped air and the age of the enclosing ice be determined and is it constant with age?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">5. Are CO2 measurements from air bubbles valid or do diffusion and the uncertainty in the timing of isolation of air in bubbles render them invalid?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">6. Is the data from Antarctic ice cores consistent with data from the Greenland ice cores?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">7. Is the temperature chronology of the ice cores and global proxies consistent with the </span></i></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">well-dated, global glacial record?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">8. Is the so-called ‘see-saw’ of climate changes between hemispheres valid, i.e, are climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">9. Would correlation between CO2 and temperature necessarily prove that CO2 causes </span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">climatic warming?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">10. Since CO2 is incapable of causing climatic warming by itself (CO2 makes up only 0.038% of the atmosphere and accounts for only a few percent of the greenhouse gas effect), is there </span></i></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">evidence of concomitant increase in water vapor (which causes more than 90% of the greenhouse gas effect)?</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">11. Is the AMOC the only viable causal mechanism? What about the influence of the Pacific Ocean, which covers about half the Earth’s surface</span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">So, what is the main contention of this paper and what does it imply? The authors claim to have “<b>compelling evidence that rising CO2</b></span></i><b><i><span style=" color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> <u>caused</u> </span></i></b><b><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">much of the global warming” </span></i></b><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">at </span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">the end of the last ice age, roughly 11,000 to 25,000 years ago. According to the authors, “if you reconstruct temperatures on a global scale – and not just examine Antarctic temperatures – it becomes apparent that <b>the CO2 change slightly preceded much of </b></span></i></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=" color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b>the global warming, and this means the global greenhouse effect had an important role in driving up global temperatures and bringing the planet out of the last Ice Age.” </b>The crux of their contention is illustrated in their Figure 2.</span></i></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEwuutNTICaGV6bWT21KYYV1yzft_ovVszcB9hYSztmTTluZXJ4UKGfSJgBBYpfsjoGTCu-vDAARniWTAy3RA6cR9CiV9HOgYmd6pwPhwavNhsMglw8Ipwo2kiTjK7fJYVu9V71z6OHtw/s1600/image_thumb8.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 254px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEwuutNTICaGV6bWT21KYYV1yzft_ovVszcB9hYSztmTTluZXJ4UKGfSJgBBYpfsjoGTCu-vDAARniWTAy3RA6cR9CiV9HOgYmd6pwPhwavNhsMglw8Ipwo2kiTjK7fJYVu9V71z6OHtw/s400/image_thumb8.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729379505083945826" border="0" /></a> </div><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Shakun et al. Figure 2. The Red line is Antarctic temperature curve based on ice cores; the yellow dots are CO2 measurements from ice cores; the blue line is composite global temperature from 80 proxies.</span> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Willis has sliced and diced the data behind these curves so be sure to read his analyses. I’ll refer to some of his graphs and conclusions but look at the Shakun et al. contentions from a somewhat different angle. Because this is such a marked divergence from the widely held view that CO2 lagged rising temperatures at the end of the last ice age, careful scrutiny must be given to evidence and assumptions upon which this contention is based. Right off the bat, a most surprising conclusion in this paper is that the authors claim that <em>correlation proves</em><em> cause. </em>Simply showing that CO2 correlates with anything surely doesn’t prove that CO2 was </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">the <em><span style="text-decoration:underline;">cause</span></em>. It’s the same kind of mindset involved with the oft-heard claim that if we have had global warming while CO2 was rising that proves the cause was the rise in CO2. Heck, I had hair before CO2 began to rise, but I don’t blame that on CO2.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">So let’s look at each of questions posed above.</p> <ol style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><li><strong>How accurate is the dating of Antarctic ice cores?</strong> How can you date ice that has nothing in it that can be directly dated? The Shakun et al. paper states that they use the methodology of Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010), which involves construction of a model using estimates of snow accumulation rates, temperature, firn densification rates, and ice flow rates, all of which vary from glacier to glacier and from glaciation to interglaciation (thus introducing large potential errors). The modeling data is then modified by matching with tephra horizons, sulfate spikes, δ<sup>18</sup>O, firn densification model results, and orbital tuning. All of the assumptions built into the modeling are cumulative, resulting in large possible age errors. As Lemieux-Dudon point out <em><span style="text-decoration:underline;">“One special feature of glaciological models is a</span></em><em> </em><em><span style="text-decoration:underline;">large model error due to unresolved physics and errors on the forcing fields, clearly affecting the quality of the inferred dating scenarios.</span></em><em>” </em>What this means of course is that the age determinations of the Antarctic cores are, at best, educated guesses with large uncertainties. Because chronology is so critical to the Shakun et al. contention, the ages of the Antarctic cores shown in their Figure 2 cannot be considered accurate.</li><li style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><strong>Are the 80 temperature proxies used in the paper sufficiently accurate to establish a solid global temperature chronology? </strong>Willis Eschenbach has made a detailed analysis of the data used to construct the global temperature curve in Figure 2 of Shakun et al.(see this in his web posting) He plotted individual curves for each of the 80 temperature proxies used to create Figure 2 in the Shakun et al. paper. What he found was large variability in the data, which led him to conclude that <em>“The variety in the shapes of these graphs is quite surprising Yes, they’re all vaguely alike, but that’s about all. The main curiosity about these, other than the wide variety of amounts of warming, is the different timing of the warming.”</em> When he ploted all the individual proxies all together (see below), the scatter is readily apparent, leading him to conclude: <em>“It’s clear that there is warming since the last ice age.” “But if you want to make the claim that CO2 precedes the warming? I fear that this set of proxies is perfectly useless for that. How on earth could you claim anything about the timing of the warming from this group of proxies? It’s all over the map.”</em><br /><em></em></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoRbr91ZuGV0Vf1AZOFXqzlvyW1pqv4kg7ErtCmgoLpZBtkWBW7cYUrhuIK42JhYKz7sEFL2mE6aF0SCTJjmyYJXWlbSDFWquVtxnTLDuF0muTgP8lRLUcZ4zyjCPpCgpA0m4EuWlC4Go/s1600/image_thumb9.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 386px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoRbr91ZuGV0Vf1AZOFXqzlvyW1pqv4kg7ErtCmgoLpZBtkWBW7cYUrhuIK42JhYKz7sEFL2mE6aF0SCTJjmyYJXWlbSDFWquVtxnTLDuF0muTgP8lRLUcZ4zyjCPpCgpA0m4EuWlC4Go/s400/image_thumb9.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729379508164514178" border="0" /></a> </li></ol><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Large scatter of individual data points on Willis’s plot from the 80 proxies used in the construction of the Shakun et al. temperature curve. I’ve added lines to show the age of Younger Dryas interval, which doesn’t correspond to the dip in the Shakun et al. temperature data.</span> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Just for fun, I superimposed the curves on Shakun et al. figure 2 over Willis’s data point plot (see below). Because the global temperature curve (the blue curve) was presumably derived from the data in Willis’s plot, it should fit well with it. Interestingly, it doesn’t. I’ve shown with a blue arrow the dip in temperature that corresponds to the Younger Dryas and a black arrow pointing to what should be the same dip in temperature on the plot of individual data points. Other arrows point to similar differences for the end of the Younger Dryas. Now you </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: left;">would think that since the Shakun et al. blue curve was constructed from the individual data points shown on the graph, the two should surely be compatible! I’ve also shown on the graph the well-established age of the Younger Dryas—note that the Shakun et al. global temperature data points show a dip in temperature (presumably the Younger Dryas) that is considerably younger. Makes you wonder!</p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmwzQ84p6I_VEqWxU_euVi4L_s9uTrRA58ejravE3DfobAutlzGiOgzyS0t7CQOyiTC9A2LDErlQNc4VpCl_6BuXFFpVCsC_gZQFtqesWNC9Pj-fmD1seuo9dPqCk18PKVRqbqFTVm8rY/s1600/image_thumb10.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 386px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmwzQ84p6I_VEqWxU_euVi4L_s9uTrRA58ejravE3DfobAutlzGiOgzyS0t7CQOyiTC9A2LDErlQNc4VpCl_6BuXFFpVCsC_gZQFtqesWNC9Pj-fmD1seuo9dPqCk18PKVRqbqFTVm8rY/s400/image_thumb10.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5729379511328616194" border="0" /></a><br /></p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Comparison of the Shakun et al. global temperature curve with the data from which it was constructed. The blue arrows point to the Younger Dryas dip in temperatures and the black arrows point to the ending of the Younger Dryas. The two should match, but don’t.</span> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>3. Can CO2 in the ice cores be measured with validity and accuracy?</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>4. Can the difference in the age of the trapped air and the age of the enclosing ice be determined and is it constant with age?</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>5. Are CO2 measurements from air bubbles valid or do diffusion and the uncertainty in the timing of isolation of air in bubbles render them invalid?</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Because these questions are all inter-related let’s consider them together. The validity of measurement of CO2 from bubbles in ice cores has been challenged in a number of studies. There are several basic problems: (1) air becomes trapped in ice during the conversion of snow to firn to ice. Air in the snow/firn phase remains in contact with surface air until it turns to ice and seals off air bubbles from further mixing with surface air. The depth at which sealing occurs varies considerably, depending on the rate of firn densification, and may extend to more than 100 meters and take a thousand years or more. This means that the age of air in a bubble is not the same as the age of the inclosing ice. Snow densification rates vary considerably between temperate and polar glaciers and between glacial and interglacial climates, making it difficult to measure and date adequately. In any case, rates are not likely to be constant. (2) a second problem results from possible diffusion along the walls of an air bubble, which can upset the CO2 concentration in the bubble. These and other problems mean that measurement of CO2 in ice cores is not straight forward—measurement of CO2 concentrations in ice bubbles and determination of the age of the air are likely to be quite variable. General trends are apparent in CO2 ice core measurements, but variability in CO2 concentrations and age remains problematic.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">At this point, answering the remaining questions is quite obviously going to take some time, so they will be considered in Part 2, coming soon.</p>I will update this post when that part is available.Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-91121753907364449312012-04-08T22:47:00.002-07:002012-04-08T23:56:46.335-07:00Climategate Vs FakegateBack in 2009 just before the Copenhagen Climate Conference, there was a series of emails that were released by person or persons unknown from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (UEA). These emails soon became known as the <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2009/11/climate-research-unit-email-scandal.html">Climategate</a> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com.au/2009/12/climategate-cru-email-scandal-update.html">scandal</a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span>as they showed numerous conversations between Climatologists such as Dr. Phil Jones, Dr. Michael Mann, etc. that used phrases such as "hide the decline" when discussing temperature data and "redefining what peer review means" when discussing papers presented for peer review and publishing that were critical of their works. They showed how they got an Editor of a scientific journal sacked for publishing a "sceptics" paper as well as much more bad behaviour and questionable scientific practices.<br /><br />Then in November of 2011 another batch of emails from the same area were released and filled in some of the gaps and context of the first batch and it showed a very different story to the one the originators of those emails had been trying to spin in their defence. These became known as the<a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/"> <span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">Climategate 2</span></a> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/30/climategate-2-0-emails-thread-2/">emails</a>.<br /><br />A chronological order of all the emails in Climategate 1 and 2 can be found <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/29/new-tool-all-climategate-emails-in-order-in-excel/">here</a>.<br /><br />Or a condensed version of the 5000 emails released in Climategate 2 can found <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/06/250-plus-noteworthy-climategate-2-0-emails/">here</a>.<br /><br />Then in February 2012 there erupted another series of emails that was designed to question this time the funding sources of the Heartland Institute who support some of the scientists on the sceptical side of the Climate Change debate. This would finally show just how corrupt were these deniers, was the general claim from the pro AGW sector and this was revenge for Climategate 1 and 2 ( which was dismissed as simply banter between scientists by the same people now crowing about these new emails). That was until it was discovered that an environmental activist named Professor Peter Gleick had falsified his identity to obtain most of the emails, and had either written a fake one and placed it amongst the other genuine ones or as he claims "received the fake memo in the mail from an anonymous source."<br /><br />This then became known as "<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/03/update-on-fakegate-what-we-know-so-far/">Fakegate</a>." <br /><br />To show how this compares to the Climategate emails of 2009 and 2011 I refer to the post by Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That, entitled: <span style="font-weight: bold;">Update of Fakegate - what we know so far.</span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> 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mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; font-family: georgia; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Background on Fakegate from The Heartland Institute</span></b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal"><b style="font-style: italic; font-family: georgia; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1. What is Fakegate?</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/15237218@N00/3488066181" target="_blank"><img 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" alt="" /></a><br /><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Peter Gleick - World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Davos 2009 (Photo credit: World Economic Forum)</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">On February 14, 2012, an environmental activist named Peter Gleick sent to liberal activists and sympathetic journalists several documents he stole from The Heartland Institute, along with a fake memo he claimed was also from Heartland. On February 20, Gleick confessed to stealing the documents but claimed to have received the fake memo “in the mail” from an anonymous source.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The fake memo, titled “January 2012 Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy,” is a mixture of text copied and pasted from the stolen documents and original commentary by the forger. By distorting and misrepresenting the plans set forth in the stolen documents, the fake memo paints a false and disturbing picture of Heartland’s motives and tactics.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">2. What did the stolen documents reveal?</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The budget document revealed that Heartland has a broad base of support – about 1,800 donors – and expects to raise about $7.7 million in 2012. It presents confidential personnel information including reasons for termination of former employees and salaries. It also lists scientists we work with to produce Climate Change Reconsidered, a series of reports presenting an alternative perspective to the United Nations’ IPCC reports.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The fundraising plan identifies some of the donors to The Heartland Institute during the past two years and our estimate of how much they would contribute in 2012. It also describes a series of new programs, including four on climate change, that we plan to fundraise for. Are all well within our charitable mission of “discovering, developing, and promoting free-market solutions to social and economic problems.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Another stolen document reveals contact information for members of Heartland’s Board of Directors, including home addresses for some Directors.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Three things the stolen documents do not reveal are substantial funding from the fossil fuel industry for our work on climate change, substantial funding from David or Charles Koch or Koch Industries, and anything other than a sincere and professional effort to advance the organization’s tax-exempt mission.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">3. How do you know the “climate strategy” memo is fake?</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We know the memo is a forgery for four reasons:</span></p> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l15 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The memo contains numerous errors of fact and interpretation that no one at Heartland would have made. Significantly, every error in the fake memo has the effect of casting Heartland’s fundraising and education efforts in a negative light.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l13 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Juola & Associates, the country’s leading provider of expert analysis and testimony in the field of text and authorship, studied the document and concluded Gleick is the most likely author. So have many other independent scholars.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">A thorough forensic analysis of Heartland’s computers (and those owned by Heartland’s president and his spouse) by Protek International concludes “the Memo was not created on Heartland’s computer systems and never existed there, or within Heartland’s email systems, prior to its posting online on February 14, 2012.”</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo4;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The memo references only the documents that were stolen by Gleick. Except for Board members, no one except Gleick had access to all of the documents cited in the memo.</span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">4. What does the fake “climate strategy” memo say?</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The memo contains several false statements about The Heartland Institute’s work on climate change. Following is our refutation of some of the most damaging claims:</span></p> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l11 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The Charles G. Koch Foundation does not fund our climate change efforts and did not contribute $200,000 to us in 2011. The foundation has issued a statement confirming that its 2011 gift of $25,000 – its first to Heartland in ten years – was earmarked for our work on health care reform, not climate.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">“[D]issuading teachers from teaching science” is not and never has been our goal. As the “Fundraising Plan” clearly states, we are working with a highly qualified and respected expert to create educational material on global warming suitable for K_12 students that isn’t alarmist or overtly political. We don’t believe this should be controversial.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo7;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We do not seek to “undermine the official United Nation’s [sic] IPCC reports.” We have openly and repeatedly shown that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s reports are not peer reviewed in any meaningful sense, exaggerate the certainty of scientific understanding and forecasting abilities, and are written and promoted to serve political rather than scientific objectives. We have produced two highly regarded volumes of scientific research, part of a series titled Climate Change Reconsidered, showing how peer_reviewed science rebuts many of the IPCC’s claims.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l7 level1 lfo8;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We do not pay scientists or their organizations to “counter” anyone else in the international debate over climate change. We pay them to help write the Climate Change Reconsidered reports, in the same way as any other “think tank” or scientific organization pays the authors of its publications.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo9;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We do not try to “keep opposing voices out” of forums, such as Forbes.com, where climate policy has been debated. The truth is just the opposite: We send Heartland spokespersons to debate other experts at fora all across the country and invite persons who disagree with us to speak at our own events. In fact, we invited Peter Gleick to debate a Heartland expert on climate change at our upcoming annual benefit dinner and he turned us down.</span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">5. How does Fakegate compare with Climategate?</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Fakegate invites comparison with Climategate, the unauthorized release of emails from the University of East Anglia in 2009 and again in 2011. Both scandals reveal how desperate and delusional the leading figures in the global warming movement are. If you are confident that you are right, you don’t steal documents and try to undermine other organizations.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Groups on the left claim The Heartland Institute, which reported frequently on the Climategate story, is being hypocritical now when it denounces the theft of its documents and calls on journalists to stop assuming the fake memo is authentic. But the “hypocrisy” charge is easily answered:</span></p> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo10;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The Climategate documents show a pattern of misbehavior – trying to suppress debate, destroying data, fudging research findings – while the documents stolen from Heartland actually vindicate the organization from claims that it is a “front group” for the fossil fuel industry.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l9 level1 lfo11;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">None of the Climategate documents was fake. One of the Fakegate documents was.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l3 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The documents in the Climategate scandal were leaked, not stolen: apparently no crime was committed. Our documents were clearly stolen, and the culprit, Peter Gleick, has confessed.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l6 level1 lfo13;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The Climategate documents were apparently being stored to respond to FOIA requests that the University of East Anglia had been stonewalling. The university is a government agency and subject to FOIA; The Heartland Institute is a private nonprofit organization, and is not.</span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">So where Climategate and Fakegate are similar, they reveal the dishonesty and basic moral corruption of the global warming movement. Where they differ, they justify The Heartland Institute taking legal action against Peter Gleick and his co-conspirators.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">6. Where does Fakegate stand today?</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language: EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Environmental groups are using false statements contained in the fake memo and the list of donors in the stolen fundraising document to demand that our corporate donors stop funding us. Since many of our donors give to support our work on topics other than climate change – school reform, health care policy, insurance regulation, and others – they should not be exposed to this kind of harassment.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Similarly, Greenpeace is using the fake memo and the list of scientists in the stolen budget document to demand that universities discipline or fire the climate scientists who work with Heartland. This is an outrageous attack on free and open debate, yet it is being cheered on by many reporters and other environmental activists.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Environmental groups and their allies in the mainstream media still refuse to remove the stolen and fake documents from their Web sites or to issue retractions of editorials and news stories that assumed the authenticity of the fake memo, despite our repeated requests that they do so. This is a clear violation of journalistic ethics.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The Heartland Institute has assembled a top-notch legal team and is asking the government to pursue criminal charges against Peter Gleick and his accomplices, as well as preparing to file civil suits against Gleick and his accomplices on behalf of Heartland and the scientists who have come under attack because of his actions.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">7. What is The Heartland Institute?</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language: EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The Heartland Institute is a national, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization with offices in Chicago and Washington, DC. The Heartland Institute was founded in 1984. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Three things make Heartland unique among free-market think tanks:</span></p> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l12 level1 lfo14;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">State and local elected officials nationwide are our primary audiences. We are in frequent contact with some 7,300 state elected officials and more than 8,400 county and local officials.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo15;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We produce publications that actually get read by elected officials. Six monthly public policy newspapers – Budget & Tax News, Environment & Climate News, FIRE Policy News, Health Care News, InfoTech & Telecom News, and School Reform News – present free-market ideas as news rather than research or opinion.</span></li></ul> <ul style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; line-height:normal;mso-list:l8 level1 lfo16;tab-stops:list .5in"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We promote the best work of other free-market think tanks on our Web sites, in our newspapers, at our events, and through our extensive government relations and media relations efforts.</span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Expertise: </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Approximately 140 academics and professional economists participate in Heartland’s peer review process as policy advisors and 213 elected officials serve on its Legislative Forum. Fourteen senior fellows are available to write, speak, or comment in depth on a wide range of policy issues.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Media Relations:</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"> We send out a constant stream of op-eds, news releases, letters to the editor, podcasts, and much more. In 2011, we contacted journalists more than 410,484 times and appeared in print and on television or radio 1,093 times.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Online: </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We are leaders in online communication and grassroots organizing, generating nearly 2 million page views and 1.3 million visitors on 16 Web sites and blogs in 2011. Our Facebook page has more than 52,000 fans, and registers approximately 75,000 impressions every week.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Credibility and Influence:</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"> Our 28 years producing solid research and educational materials and repeated communications with state legislators have made Heartland a credible, independent, “go-to” source for thousands of elected officials and other opinion leaders. A 2011 survey by Victory Enterprises of 500 randomly selected public officials found 79 percent of state legislators and 66 percent of local elected officials read at least one of our publications, and almost half of state legislators say a Heartland publication changed their mind or led to a change in public policy.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Bipartisan: </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">The Heartland Institute’s influence is not limited to a single political party. The Victory Enterprises survey showed strong across-the-aisle appeal as well. Approximately 73 percent of state Democratic legislators said they read at least one Heartland publication sometimes or always, 64 percent of these legislators said they consider one or more publications a useful source of information, and 38 percent said a Heartland publication influenced their opinions or led to a change in public policy.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Besides its monthly public policy newspapers, Heartland publishes books, policy studies, booklets, and other publications and produces videos, podcasts, and other online features.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Heartland’s 13_member Board of Directors is chaired by Dr. Herbert Walberg, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and research professor emeritus of psychology and education at the University of Illinois at Chicago.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Heartland’s 2012 annual budget is $7.0 million. It has a full-time staff of 41. Funds come from approximately 1,800 individuals, corporations, and foundations. No corporate donor contributes more than 5 percent of Heartland’s annual budget. Contributions are tax-deductible under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">8. What is Heartland’s position on climate change?</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Heartland’s researchers acknowledge, as do most scientists, that the Earth experienced a rise in temperatures during the second half of the twentieth century, that human activities may have played a role in that increase, and that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Heartland disagrees with three claims made by many environmental groups: That most of the warming of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic causes, that computer models are sufficiently reliable to forecast future climate conditions, and that a continued moderate warming would be harmful to humanity or the natural world.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Heartland’s position is supported by many of the world’s leading climate scientists, and many (possibly most) scientists in the United States. We are not “on the fringe” or “anti-climate science.” We are expressing a perspective that is very mainstream, even if it is not what liberal environmentalists and reporters believe.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">9. What is Heartland doing on climate change?</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We produce more research and commentary on climate change than any other free-market think tank in the world. We have distributed millions of books, booklets, videos, and other educational products to opinion leaders in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Britain, and other parts of the world.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We report on the climate change debate every month in Environment & Climate News, a publication sent to every national, state, and most local elected officials in the U.S. We fund the writing and publication of the reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), including two volumes in a series titled Climate Change Reconsidered totaling more than 1,200 pages and citing thousands of peer-reviewed scientific articles.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">We have hosted six International Conferences on Climate Change (ICCC), attracting nearly 3,000 scientists, policy experts, and policymakers from around the world. We plan at least one and possibly two ICCCs in 2012.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">During 2012, we plan to undertake nearly a dozen projects specifically addressing climate change. An updated proposal is available to donors and potential donors.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU"># # #</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">For more information about Fakegate, please visit www.fakegate.org or call Jim Lakely, communications director, at 312/377-4000. For more information about The Heartland Institute, please visit www.heartland.org or call Gwen Carver, membership manager, or Rachel Rivest Dunbar, corporate relations manager, at 312/377-4000.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Contributions to The Heartland Institute are tax exempt under Section 501(c)(3) of the IRC. Please send your gift to The Heartland Institute, One South Wacker Drive #2740, Chicago, IL 60606.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">Full report in PDF form here: <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/background-on-fakegate.pdf">Background on Fakegate</a></span></p> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-AU;mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA"><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></span>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-27839749239708172082011-07-10T20:10:00.000-07:002011-07-10T20:47:57.223-07:00Dr. Roy Spencer's VideoAn interesting video from <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/">Dr. Roy Spencer</a> of UAH on <span style="font-weight: bold;">Why the Global Warming Agenda is Wrong</span>. Particularly interesting given here in Australia our Prime Minister Julia Gillard has just <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://video.theaustralian.com.au/2049774247/PMs-address-to-the-nation">announced the introduction of a Carbon Tax</a> (despite <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5pzSvSCUZo">promising in the election not to do so</a>).<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/vvObfrs3qoE" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="344" width="425"></iframe><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><!--[if !mso]> <style> v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} </style> <![endif]-->Dr Spencer has also written another article worth reading 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</w:lsdexception><!--[endif]--><!----> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <!--[endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic;"><a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/06/more-evidence-that-global-warming-is-a-false-alarm-a-model-simulation-of-the-last-40-years-of-deep-ocean-warming/" title="Permanent Link to More Evidence that Global Warming is a False Alarm: A Model Simulation of the last 40 Years of Deep Ocean Warming">More Evidence that Global Warming is a False Alarm: A Model Simulation of the last 40 Years of Deep Ocean Warming</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">June 25th, 2011 </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic;">NOTE: I am making available the Excel spreadsheet with the simple forcing-feedback-diffusion model so people can experiment with it. The spreadsheet is fairly self-explanatory. THE DIFFUSION COEFFICIENTS CANNOT BE VARIED TOO DRASTICALLY SINCE, WITH A MONTHLY TIME STEP, THE MODEL WILL CREATE UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS. This is a common problem with numerical integration, which could be eliminated by reducing the time step, but I wanted to keep the model file size manageable:<br /><a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/simple-forcing-feedback-ocean-heat-diffusion-model-v1.0.xls">simple-forcing-feedback-ocean-heat-diffusion-model-v1.0</a><br />FOLLOWUP NOTE: The above spreadsheet has an error in the equations, which does not change the conclusions, but affects the physical consistency of the calculations. The heat capacity used for water is 10 times too low, and the diffusion coefficients are also 10x too low. Those errors cancel out. I will post a new spreadsheet when I get back to the office, as I am on travel 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semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">NASA’s James Hansen is probably right about this point: the importance of ocean heat storage to a better understanding of how sensitive the climate system is to our greenhouse gas emissions. The more efficient the oceans are at storing excess heat during warming, the slower will be the surface temperature response of the climate system to an imposed energy imbalance.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">Unfortunately, the uncertainties over the rate at which vertical mixing takes place in the ocean allows climate modelers to dismiss a lack of recent warming by simply asserting that the deep oceans must somehow be absorbing the extra heat. Think Trenberth’s “<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/04/earths-missing-energy-trenberths-plot-proves-my-point/">missing heat</a>“. (For a discussion of the complex processes involved in ocean mixing see <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/Courses/6140/ency/Chapter11/Ency_Oceans/Upper_Ocean_Mix_Processes.pdf">here</a>.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Well, maybe what is really missing is the IPCC’s willingness to admit the climate system is simply not as sensitive to our greenhouse gas emissions as they claim it is. Maybe the missing heat is missing because it does not really exist.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This is where we can learn from the 40+ year record of deep ocean temperature changes. Even the 2007 IPCC report admitted the oceans have warmed more slowly at depth than the climate models can explain.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Here I will show quantitatively with a simple forcing-feedback-diffusion model that recent ocean warming is actually consistent with a climate sensitivity which is so low that the IPCC considers it very unlikely.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">I will also show how disingenuous the IPCC 2007 report was in presenting the ocean warming evidence to support its view that anthropogenic global warming will be a serious problem.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The Need for Ocean Layers in a Climate Model</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Ten years ago Dick Lindzen used a simple climate model to look into the issue of whether the rate of ocean warming at 500 meters depth might help us better understand how sensitive the climate system is. He <a href="http://www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/lindzen.pdf">concluded</a> that it is the surface temperature that is most important, not what happens deeper down in the ocean.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Conceptually, the line of reasoning here would be that the deep ocean can’t warm unless the surface warms first, and the rate of surface warming is largely controlled by atmospheric feedbacks.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In contrast, Roger Pielke, Sr. has always maintained that the heat content of the ocean is what we should be monitoring, not the surface temperature, to better understand how sensitive the climate system is to various forcings.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">I WILL say I firmly believe that the surface temperature is THE MOST important temperature in the climate system. This is because (1) the surface is where most sunlight is absorbed, (2) the atmosphere is then convectively coupled to the surface, and (3) the surface and atmosphere together are the ONLY way for the Earth to radiatively cool to space in the face of continuous solar heating.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">But, as we will see, the detailed profile of recent warming with depth in the ocean does appear to have additional information about climate sensitivity that is not apparent from surface warming alone.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Explaining the Observed Heating Profile of the Ocean</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The following picture is worth a thousand words….but I will try to use fewer than that. First, it is partly a reworking of Fig. 9.15 of the IPCC 2007 report, showing the substantial discrepancy between observed global-average warming of the oceans to 700 meters depth (red curve), and warming estimated from the PCM1 climate model (solid green curve) for the 40-year period ending (I believe) around 2005 (click for the large version).</p></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:latentstyles></xml><div 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semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">The green dashed line is my simple model simulation of the PCM1 model’s 40-year warming profile, where I used the <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.txt">GISS yearly global climate forcings</a> to force temperature changes in the 30-layer model, where all layers have adjustable diffusion coefficients. </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">To get this match to the PCM1 model results, I specified the known PCM1 model net feedback parameter (1.8 Watts per sq. meter per degree), and then adjusted the diffusion coefficients between the simple model’s 50-meter thick layers extending from the surface to a depth of 1,500 meters until I got good agreement between my simple model and the PCM1 model results.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">As you can see, my model fit (green dashed line) to the PCM1 model results (green solid line) is pretty good. (Some small amount of warming occurs all the way to the 1,500 m bottom of the model, although it is extremely weak). This demonstrates that the simple model can basically replicate the behavior of the much more complex PCM1 model, albeit for only global-average results.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Next, after I got the simple model to mimic the PCM1 model, then I tried to explain the observations (red) curve by adjusting (1) the model sensitivity (assumed feedback parameter), and (2) the diffusion coefficients, until the model explained the actual observed warming profile. Interestingly, the diffusion coefficients only needed to be changed for the top three ocean layers (down to 200 m depth, which would be about the bottom of the themocline.) The rest of the diffusion coefficients remained the same as in the PCM1-matching simulation.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The result is the blue curve. Significantly, the simple model required a feedback parameter equivalent to a climate sensitivity of only 1.3 deg. C in response to a doubling of CO2. This is well below the range of warming the IPCC claims is most likely (2.5 to 4 deg. C).</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">What It Means</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The bottom line is that 40 years of warming of the 0-700 meter ocean layer has been so modest that, even if we assume it was caused by the GISS forcings (which Hansen believes will eventually cause strong warming) , it corresponds to low climate sensitivity anyway.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In other words, the oceans have not warmed enough to support the IPCC’s predictions of future warming. </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The problem in the IPCC models seems to be that they mix excess heat too rapidly from the mixed layer into the deep ocean. This allows the models to retain high climate sensitivity, while limiting the amount of surface warming they produce to match the observed warming to date. </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Voila! The models can thus “explain” the surface temperature record AND STILL predict strong warming for the future. </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Even though the model I use is admittedly simple, this does not really matter because, in the global average, long-term temperature change is only a function of 3 basic processes:</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(1) the strength of the forcing (imposed energy imbalance on the climate system, due to whatever); </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(2) the strength of the climate system’s resistance to that forcing (net feedback, which determines climate sensitivity); and,</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(3) the rate of ocean mixing (which affects surface temperature, which affects the rate of energy loss to space through feedback processes).</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Everything else is details.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">How the IPCC Cheated </p> 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unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">In the process of this little study I learned that the IPCC’s 2007 presentation of the ocean warming data was, at best, disingenuous. Here’s the original PCM1 panel of Fig. 9.15 from the 2007 IPCC report, from which I took numbers to re-plot on the figure, 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Accent 5"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 5"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">With this figure, the IPCC was cleverly able to make it LOOK like there was general agreement between their climate models (green shaded area) and observations (red curve), with no less than four ploys:</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">1) They chose a climate model (PCM1) that is the 2nd LEAST sensitive of the twenty-something climate models they survey. PCM1 produces even less warming than the IPCC’s official projected range of warming from a doubling of CO2. </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">2) For the PCM1 model results, they presented a rather broad range of warming (green shaded area), meant to represent natural climate variations about the average warming produced by the model. In this way, they were able to get the weak observed warming to better overlap with the model produced warming, suggesting agreement.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">3) They omitted the 0 deg. (no temperature change) vertical line from the figure, the presence of which would have visually revealed the significant discrepancy between the PCM1 model results and the observations.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">4) They made the ocean depth scale nonlinear, which disproportionally emphasized the agreement in the relatively shallow mixed layer of the ocean, while downplaying the rather large discrepancy deeper down. But there is NO physical reason to make the ocean depth scale nonlinear; the total heat carrying capacity of the ocean varies linearly with depth, not non-linearly. </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Conclusion</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">It appears that the vertical profile of ocean warming could be a key ingredient in getting a better idea of how sensitive the climate system is to our greenhouse gas emissions. The results here suggests the warming has been considerably weaker than what would be expected for a sensitive climate system.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The sensitivity number I estimate — 1.3 deg. C — arguably puts future warming in the realm of “eh, who cares?”</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">It will be interesting to see how the next IPCC report, now in the early stages of preparation, explains away the increasing discrepancies between their climate models and the observations. Since IPCC outcomes are ultimately driven by desired governmental policies and politicians, rather than science, I’m sure the wordsmithing (and figuresmithing) will be artfully done.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">IMPORTANT NOTE: The above model simulation does not account for the possibility that some of recent warming could have been due to one or more natural processes, in which case the diagnosed climate sensitivity would be even lower.</p></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:latentstyles></xml></m:defjc></m:rmargin></m:lmargin></m:dispdef></m:smallfrac></m:brkbinsub></m:brkbin></m:mathfont></m:mathpr></w:word11kerningpairs></w:dontvertalignintxbx></w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables></w:dontvertaligncellwithsp></w:splitpgbreakandparamark></w:dontgrowautofit></w:useasianbreakrules></w:wraptextwithpunct></w:snaptogridincell></w:breakwrappedtables></w:compatibility></w:donotpromoteqf></w:validateagainstschemas></w:punctuationkerning></w:trackformatting></w:worddocument></xml></div></div>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-62068211394124822832011-07-07T00:57:00.000-07:002011-07-07T19:09:42.382-07:00Dr Judith Curry - An explanation(?) for lack of warming since 1998In a follow up to my last post entitled <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/07/new-study-admits-global-surface.html">New Study Admits “Global Surface Temperatures Did Not Rise Between 1998 and 2008″</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span>is this analysis by (former AGW believer now sceptic) Dr. Judith Curry of <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://judithcurry.com/2011/07/04/an-explanation-for-lack-of-warming-since-1998/#comments">Climate Etc</a>. In it she says:<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A new paper has been published in PNAS entitled “Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.”</span> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span id="more-3966"></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Robert K. Kaufmann, Heikki Kauppi, Michael L. Mann, and James H. Stock</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><em><strong>Abstract.</strong> Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.</em></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Link to complete paper [<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/pnas-201102467.pdf">here</a>].</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The key argument in their paper is that an increase in coal burning (primarily in China) has increased atmospheric sulfate concentration with a resulting global cooling effect. The data that they use for coal emissions can be found in this spreadsheet from EIA. The paper concludes:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>C<em>onclusion</em></strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><em>The finding that the recent hiatus in warming is driven largely by natural factors does not contradict the hypothesis: “most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” As indicated in Fig. 1, anthropogenic activities that warm and cool the planet largely cancel after 1998, which allows natural variables to play a more significant role. The 1998-2008 hiatus is not the first period in the instrumental temperature record when the effects of anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and sulfur emissions on radiative forcing largely cancel. In-sample simulations indicate that temperature does not rise between the 1940’s and 1970’s because the cooling effects of sulfur emissions rise slightly faster than the warming effect of greenhouse gases. The post 1970 period of warming, which constitutes a significant portion of the increase in global surface temperature since the mid 20th century, is driven by efforts to reduce air pollution in general and acid deposition in particular, which cause sulfur emissions to decline while the concentration of greenhouse gases continues to rise.</em></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><em>The results of this analysis indicate that observed temperature after 1998 is consistent with the current understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors that have well known warming and cooling effects. Both of these effects, along with changes in natural variables must be examined explicitly by efforts to understand climate change and devise policy that complies with the objective of Article 2 of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to stabilize “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system.”</em></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Science News</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Science News has is writing an article on this paper (haven’t spotted it yet). Here is the complete comments I provided to the reporter via email:</p> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <p><em>This paper points out that global coal consumption (primarily from China) has increased significantly, although the dataset referred to shows an increase only since 2004-2007 (the period 1985-2003 was pretty stable). The authors argue that the sulfates associated with this coal consumption have been sufficient to counter the greenhouse gas warming during the period 1998-2008, which is similar to the mechanism that has been invoked to explain the cooling during the period 1940-1970.</em></p> </div> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> <p><em>I don’t find this explanation to be convincing because the increase in sulfates occurs only since 2004 (the solar signal is too small to make much difference). Further, translating regional sulfate emission into global forcing isnt really appropriate, since atmospheric sulfate has too short of an atmospheric lifetime (owing to cloud and rain processes) to influence the global radiation balance.</em></p> </div> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <p><em> <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">The alternative explanation is natural internal variability associated with the ocean oscillations. Since 1999, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been shifting from the warm phase (warm phase since 1976) to the cool phase, and has been mostly in the cool phase since 2007. </span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A cool PDO is associated with more frequent La Nina events, which are associated with globally cooler temperatures.</span><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> The climate model studies cited by the authors do not do a convincing job of ruling out natural internal variability as an explanation, either for the cool period since 1998, and the earlier cool period during 1940-1970.</span></em></p> </div> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <p><em> In summary, the authors have put forward one possible explanation for the lack of warming, but <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">an explanation associated with natural internal variability associated with the ocean oscillations is at least as plausible as the explanation put forward by the authors.</span></em></p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Aerosol forcing</strong></p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Sulfate from coal burning is but one source of atmospheric aerosol. AGW Observer provides a recent <a href="http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/10/20/papers-on-aerosol-forcing-observations/">list of papers on aerosol forcing observations</a>. See especially the<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a href="http://domex.nps.edu/corp/files/govdocs1/232/232787.pdf">Remer et al. paper</a>, Fig 5, which shows no trend in global aerosol optical depth during the period 2000-2006. A plot for East Asia also shows no trend regional aerosol optical depth.</p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">I also checked to see what CMIP5 is using for aerosol forcing, see <a href="http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/forcing.html">here</a>, but there doesn’t seem to be any simple way to visualize whatever is being used. I found a <a href="http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/4/543/2011/gmd-4-543-2011.pdf"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">paper by Jones et al</span>.</a>, see Fig. 10, that appears to be the CMIP5 aerosol forcing. Looking at the black curves (historical, to 2005), it is seen that sulfur dioxide emissions peaked during 1960-1980, and then have steadily decreased (a tiny uptick after 2005 is seen in some of the future scenarios). Fossil fuel black carbon has shown a stead increase since 1950, as has fossil fuel organic carbon. I don’t seen any signal in the total aerosol emissions that resembles the coal emissions with a flat trajectory since 1985 and an uptick after 2004 (although the historical data ends in 2005).</p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">There is also a big international project called<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://dataipsl.ipsl.jussieu.fr/AEROCOM/">AEROCOM</a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">,</span> that is coordinating the preparation, evaluation and application of global aerosol data sets. However I can’t find anything on their site that provides easy visualization of the global aerosol emissions or forcing.</p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>JC comments:</strong> <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Their argument is totally unconvincing to me. </span> However, the link between flat/cooling global temperature and increased coal burning in China is certainly an interesting argument from a political perspective. The scientific motivation for this article seems to be that that scientists understand the evolution of global temperature forcing and that the answer is forced variability (not natural internal variability), and this explanation of the recent lack of warming supports a similar argument for the cooling between 1940 and 1970. <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">The political consequence of this article seems to be that the simplest solution to global warming is for the Chinese to burn more coal, which they intend to do anyways.</span></p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">And finally, with the civil heretic discussion fresh in my mind, I checked the personal web pages of each of the co-authors: <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.bu.edu/geography/people/faculty/kaufmann/">Robert K. Kaufmann</a>, <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://kse.org.ua/people/faculty#HeikkiKauppi">Heikki Kauppi</a>,<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://people.bu.edu/mann1123/Welcome.html">Michael L. Mann</a> (not Michael E. Mann, of hockeystick fame), and <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/stock">James H. Stock</a>. These authors (individually and collectively) apparently know a heck of a lot less about atmospheric aerosols (i.e. pretty much nothing) than Freeman Dyson knows about climate change. The authors don’t seem to know much about attribution, either.</p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This article is listed as a PNAS direct submission, which means that it gets the more rigorous review treatment by the PNAS editors. I would certainly be interested in knowing who reviewed this paper. I suspect that this paper will be criticized from both sides of the AGW debate.</p> </div>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-65425396377338579792011-07-05T22:56:00.000-07:002012-01-24T22:06:43.890-08:00New Study Admits “Global Surface Temperatures Did Not Rise Between 1998 and 2008″I recently was using the site<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/">Wood For Trees </a>after it was suggested to me that there indeed had been either a plateau in temperatures for the last ten years or indeed a small fall depending on which of the four main temperature data sets (GISTEMP, HadCRUT3, UAH and RSS) you chose to use as a reference. I wanted to see for myself and this is what I found:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">GISTEMP</span>, despite <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/gw-us-1999-2011-hansen.gif">all the manipulation</a> that James Hansen has <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/25/gisscapades/">put into his data set</a> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/giss/hansen-giss-1940-1980.gif">over the years</a> and <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIupQQrq4bYtFJNc97X-IiwE0fZSy7wqmCwHk45N3iOkyLOJpsen-hWo1aGVzHzEeTqd7zWZirn_tCOnCfuZgg39hM6SW2rIoYJhZHnn0cCtMLx-TiOrYL9aAwAdSk7-hmq6V1WV4ny1Y/s400/MSUvsGISTEMP+2010.png">the amount of divergence</a> it has achieved compared to the other data sets it shows that for the past ten years there has been no rise in temperature:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigE5xCHEpoYB2dJhuvINJuiWBSNye9Wo3zo2hYsVIuxX6BcYsRycFiS_th-hVEiWiuE5TLnJ0Gp1zbSS5B-LRljNc0LHWaoPaHu3tcDbt4JGnIJG0PTTm1XA8RyaoH3VZUzVmqyao5vQo/s1600/2002+-+2011GISTEMP+trend.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigE5xCHEpoYB2dJhuvINJuiWBSNye9Wo3zo2hYsVIuxX6BcYsRycFiS_th-hVEiWiuE5TLnJ0Gp1zbSS5B-LRljNc0LHWaoPaHu3tcDbt4JGnIJG0PTTm1XA8RyaoH3VZUzVmqyao5vQo/s400/2002+-+2011GISTEMP+trend.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5626118278921983986" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">This conclusion is supported by the UAH temperature data set:<br /></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYEgfAIRFhPdZCOqL4YspF_05k2e-UMrx1RqJm1Ak1EJNjxprNyYyWvUNyRLe0TTTdJqCJ7fyeWKgrLXbbAIBrJ-w87-sZOK4LRuDx4ZQ_y_kfGmZHFPGXfogIuDjPE6we-DXKPgnip0E/s1600/2002+-2011+UAH+trend.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYEgfAIRFhPdZCOqL4YspF_05k2e-UMrx1RqJm1Ak1EJNjxprNyYyWvUNyRLe0TTTdJqCJ7fyeWKgrLXbbAIBrJ-w87-sZOK4LRuDx4ZQ_y_kfGmZHFPGXfogIuDjPE6we-DXKPgnip0E/s400/2002+-2011+UAH+trend.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5626118276713935506" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">Yet when we examine the data set from HadCRUT 3 we can see there is indeed a fall in temperature over that period:<br /></div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj34qMPuatZfmZs4bgXffMcUXwOZDp9vpqGgR6CXoPVW0JXJD3iv-zmnH09eZk4HsB4mGLD1rvATNWmlHX4OH6MOMxcZg4yxUCLq8JAdQtKxcbaEh4mCvYp_ZY8dbmP3K0L0OxiNTsQUOU/s1600/2001-20011+HadCRUT3++trend.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj34qMPuatZfmZs4bgXffMcUXwOZDp9vpqGgR6CXoPVW0JXJD3iv-zmnH09eZk4HsB4mGLD1rvATNWmlHX4OH6MOMxcZg4yxUCLq8JAdQtKxcbaEh4mCvYp_ZY8dbmP3K0L0OxiNTsQUOU/s400/2001-20011+HadCRUT3++trend.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5626118266217284386" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">And this decrease is repeated when we use the RSS data set:<br /></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvDQjSNVAarjDe8KcK_o6caGGPZAK_OqP5X2RpHDwZbkRNaSEu_ajgvubar26dHtoFI5OBGDJACWMKwqS-gwUDim9XbJwlduD20G-aVdixAwng4D8UtlOcdTozCdpSN7xoYbc-MuNRje4/s1600/2001-2011RSS+trend.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvDQjSNVAarjDe8KcK_o6caGGPZAK_OqP5X2RpHDwZbkRNaSEu_ajgvubar26dHtoFI5OBGDJACWMKwqS-gwUDim9XbJwlduD20G-aVdixAwng4D8UtlOcdTozCdpSN7xoYbc-MuNRje4/s400/2001-2011RSS+trend.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5626118262978214514" border="0" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: left;">Now <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/04/a-peer-reviewed-admission-that-global-surface-temperatures-did-not-rise-dr-david-whitehouse-on-the-pnas-paper-kaufmann-et-al-2011/">via Watts Up With That</a> comes a peer reviewed study that says that "global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008."<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The Kaufmann et al 2011 paper (Note: Michael L. Mann is a co-author, not the same as Michael E. Mann of hockey team fame) was embargoed until 8PM GMT (12PM PDT) today, and we have an advance copy thanks to Dr. Benny Peiser .</span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br /><br />Here is the PDF file</span>: <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/pnas-201102467.pdf">pnas.201102467</a><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The headline from the abstract:</span><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">But in the conclusion:</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The finding that the recent hiatus in warming is driven largely by natural factors does not contradict the hypothesis: “most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (14).”</span><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /></span>From <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://thegwpf.org/" target="_blank">the GWPF</a>:<span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Comments by Dr David Whitehouse on the PNAS paper Kaufmann et al.</span><br style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998 – 2008.</span><br style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">It is good news that the authors recognise that there has been no global temperature increase since 1998. Even after the standstill appears time and again in peer-reviewed scientific studies, many commentators still deny its reality.</span> </span><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-style: italic;">We live in the warmest decade since thermometer records began about 150 years ago, but</span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"> <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">it hasn’t gotten any warmer for at least a decade.</span></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The researchers tweak an out-of-date climate computer model and cherry-pick the outcome to get their desired result. They do not use the latest data on the sun’s influence on the Earth, rendering their results of academic interest only.</span></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-style: italic;"><br /><br />They blame China’s increasing coal consumption that they say is adding particles into the atmosphere that reflect sunlight and therefore cool the planet. </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The effect of aerosols and their interplay with other agents of combustion is a major uncertainty in climate models. Moreover,</span> </span><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-style: italic;">despite China’s coal burning, data indicate that </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">in the past decade the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere has not increased.</span></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The researchers seek to explain the temperature standstill between 1998 and 2008. They say that the global temperature has increased since then.</span></span><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This is misleading. There was an El Nino in 2010 (natural cyclic warming) but even that did not raise temperatures above 1998.</span> </span><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-style: italic;">In fact the standstill has continued to </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">2010 and 2011 appears to be on course to be a cooler year than any of the preceding ten years.</span><span style="font-style: italic;"><br style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Tweaking computer models like this proves nothing. The real test is in the real world data. The temperature hasn’t increased for over a decade. For there to be any faith in the underlying scientific assumptions the world has to start warming soon, at an enhanced rate to compensate for it being held back for a decade.</span><br style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Despite what the authors of this paper state after their tinkering with an out of date climate computer model,</span></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span>there is as yet no convincing explanation for the global temperature standstill of the past decade.</span><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Either man-made and natural climatic effects have conspired to completely offset the warming that should have occurred due to greenhouse gasses in the past decade, or our estimation of the ‘climate sensitivity’ to greenhouse gasses is too large.</span></span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><br />This is not an extreme or ‘sceptic’ position but represents part of the diversity of scientific opinion presented to the IPCC that is seldom reported. </span><br /></div><xml><w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" 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Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-54957579690001519392011-05-28T06:02:00.000-07:002011-05-28T06:23:02.541-07:00New Study Links Cosmic Rays To Aerosols/Cloud Formation Via Solar Magnetic Activity ModulationFollowing my recent theme on Cosmic Rays and Cloud formation is this recent peer reviewed study covered via Watts Up With That:<br /><br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/17/new-study-links-cosmic-rays-to-aerosolscloud-formation-via-solar-magnetic-activity-modulation/">New study links cosmic rays to aerosols/cloud formation via solar magnetic activity modulation</a> <strong><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Scientists at Aarhus University (AU) and the National Space Institute (DTU Space) show that particles from space create cloud cover</span></strong> <p style="text-align: center;"><a title="An artistic visualisation of how high-energy cosmic radiation hits the Earth’s atmosphere and forms cascades of new particles, including energy-rich electrons that scientists have now shown to be capable of creating the nuclei of cloud formation (Graphics: NASA)" href="http://science.au.dk/uploads/pics/Cosmic_Rays_1__Credit_NASA.jpg" rel="lightbox[lb17901]"><img class="alignleft" style="border: 0pt none;" src="http://science.au.dk/typo3temp/pics/0ad4df3c03.jpg" alt="" border="0" height="180" width="240" /></a><br /></p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">New input to the United Nations climate model: Ulrik Ingerslev Uggerhøj, Physics and Astronomy, AU, along with others including Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen and Martin Bødker Enghoff, DTU Space, have directly demonstrated in a new experiment that cosmic radiation can create small floating particles – so-called aerosols – in the atmosphere. By doing so, they substantiate the connection between the Sun’s magnetic activity and the Earth’s climate.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">With the new results just published in the recognised journal <em>Geophysical Research Letters</em>, scientists have succeeded for the first time in directly observing that the electrically charged particles coming from space and hitting the atmosphere at high speed contribute to creating the aerosols that are the prerequisites for cloud formation.</p> <p><span id="more-40138"></span></p> <div class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 527px;"><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://science.au.dk/typo3temp/pics/37e3a14b8e.jpg" rel="lightbox[lb17901]"><img style="border: 0pt none;" src="http://science.au.dk/typo3temp/pics/37e3a14b8e.jpg" alt="" border="0" height="600" width="517" /></a></div><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" class="wp-caption-text">Clouds, which are drops of water, occur more easily when water vapour in the atmosphere can condense around particles – dust or large clusters of molecules. Researchers have now shown that electrons caused by cosmic radiation can create small particles that can grow in the atmosphere into such cloud condensation nuclei. This is interesting in the light of the controversial theory proposed by Henrik Svensmark, DTU Space, who postulates a correlation between solar activity and the Earth’s temperature: when the Sun’s activity increases – and thereby magnetic fields (seen as more sunspots) – more of the cosmic particles deflect and fewer therefore reach the Earth’s atmosphere, whereupon there is less cloud formation and the temperature rises on the Earth’s surface. And conversely: when the magnetic field is weakened, the temperature drops. (Graphics: DTU Space)</p></div><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The more cloud cover occurring around the world, the lower the global temperature – and vice versa when there are fewer clouds. The number of particles from space vary from year to year – partly controlled by solar activity. An understanding of the impact of cosmic particles – consisting of electrons, protons and other charged particles – on cloud formation and thereby the number of clouds, is therefore very important as regards climate models. </span><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">With the researchers’ new knowledge, it is now clear that here is a correlation between the Sun’s varying activity and the formation of aerosols in the Earth’s atmosphere. Initially, the researchers have demonstrated that there is a correlation, and they will therefore now carry out systematic measurements and modellings to determine how important it is to the climate. The new studies will be made at DTU Space in Copenhagen, with support that includes a new grant of DKK 2 million (approximately EUR 270,000) from the Danish National Research Councils.</p> <h3 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Experiment in a climate chamber</h3><div class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 250px;"><a href="http://science.au.dk/typo3temp/pics/8c5de0f273.jpg" rel="lightbox[lb17901]"><img style="border: 0pt none;" src="http://science.au.dk/typo3temp/pics/9acf796724.jpg" alt="" border="0" height="320" width="240" /></a><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" class="wp-caption-text">Section of ASTRID – Denmark’s largest particle accelerator – at Aarhus University, from which scientists have sent electrons into a climate chamber and created conditions similar to the atmosphere at the height where clouds are formed. Simply by comparing situations in the climate chamber with and without electron radiation, researchers can directly see that increased radiation leads to more aerosols. These aerosols are interesting because they can make water vapour in the atmosphere condense into drops of water – i.e. clouds. (Photo: AU)</p></div><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In a climate chamber at Aarhus University, scientists have created conditions similar to the atmosphere at the height where low clouds are formed. By irradiating this artificial atmosphere with fast electrons from ASTRID – Denmark’s largest particle accelerator – they have also created conditions that resemble natural ones on this point.</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> Simply by comparing situations in the climate chamber with and without electron radiation, the researchers can directly see that increased radiation leads to more aerosols.</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> In the atmosphere, these aerosols grow into actual cloud nuclei in the course of hours or days, and water vapour concentrates on these, thus forming the small droplets the clouds consist of. </span><h3 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Background</h3> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Based on the correlation between the level of activity of the Sun and the global temperature of the Earth, the Danish climate researcher Henrik Svensmark proposed a controversial theory in the late 1990s: that there could be a correlation between the intensity of the cosmic radiation that hits the Earth – and which is affected by the activity of the Sun – and the number of clouds formed.<br />With the experiment in Aarhus, the research group has now taken one step closer to being able to demonstrate this relationship. There is much to indicate that climate models must hereby take cosmic radiation into consideration. In doing so, the new results provide hope for better climate models that can describe the Earth’s temperature and climate more accurately.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Comments from three of the scientists behind the experiment:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Senior Scientist Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen, DTU Space, says:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">“Aarhus University has outstanding facilities that enable us for the first time to carry out a very direct test of the theory on cosmic particles causing droplet formation in the atmosphere.”</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Scientist Martin Bødker Enghoff, DTU Space, adds:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">“Before we can say how great the effect is, it’s clear that our results must be verified – just as more measurements and model computations need to be made. However, we can already reveal with no doubt whatsoever that there <em></em><em>is</em> an effect.”</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">“It’s a pleasure to see these results in climate research being achieved at our accelerator. Actually, it’s only possible to do corresponding research at CERN – the joint European research centre,” says Associate Professor Ulrik Uggerhøj, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University.</p> <h3 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Facts about the experiment</h3> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A chamber contains air with precisely balanced amounts of sulphur dioxide, ozone and water vapour irradiated with electrons. Sunlight is a necessary ingredient for aerosol formation in the natural atmosphere, and it is imitated in the climate chamber by a lamp that emits ultraviolet light. Natural atmospheric processes such as the formation of sulphuric acid are thus imitated, and these are an important ingredient in the aerosols. When electrons from the accelerator irradiate the air mixture, an increase takes place in the production of aerosols, which act as nuclei for the production of cloud droplets. In previous SKY experiments conducted by DTU Space in Copenhagen, cosmic radiation was simulated by gamma radiation, and the scientists saw here that the gamma rays could also form aerosols. In the new experiment with the energy-rich electrons from the ASTRID accelerator, there is much more resemblance to the cosmic rays that occur in nature.</p> <h3 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Competitors hot on their heels</h3> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A major international research group at the European Particle Research Centre (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, has worked for several years on demonstrating the correlation that the Danish researchers have found, and the group has announced that its members are also on the way with their first extensive results. Compared with the CERN project, the Danish scientists have an extremely modest budget, but when it comes to producing particles resembling cosmic ones, the facilities at Aarhus University are equal to the most advanced facilities in the world.</p> <h3 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Associate Professor Ulrik Ingerslev Uggerhøj goes into more detail in the video interview below (in Danish only)</h3> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" id="runhead">Here’s the abstract</p> <p style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51); font-style: italic;"><a href="http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL047036.shtml">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L09805, 4 PP., 2011<br />doi:10.1029/2011GL047036</a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" id="title"><strong>Aerosol nucleation induced by a high energy particle beam</strong></p> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" id="keypoints">Key Points <ul><li>Cosmic rays increase nucleation rate</li><li>A particle beam is not needed for experiments</li><li>Ions are important for atmospheric nucleation rate</li></ul> </div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Martin B. Enghoff</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Ulrik I. Uggerhøj</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Sean M. Paling</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Henrik Svensmark</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark</p> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <p>We have studied sulfuric acid aerosol nucleation in an atmospheric pressure reaction chamber using a 580 MeV electron beam to ionize the volume of the reaction chamber. We find a clear contribution from ion-induced nucleation and consider this to be the first unambiguous observation of the ion-effect on aerosol nucleation using a particle beam under conditions that resemble the Earth’s atmosphere. By comparison with ionization using a gamma source we further show that the nature of the ionizing particles is not important for the ion-induced component of the nucleation. This implies that inexpensive ionization sources – as opposed to expensive accelerator beams – can be used for investigations of ion-induced nucleation.</p> </div> <div id="desc-2011GL047036"> <div> <div id="ppy-2011GL047036"><img src="http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1109/2011GL047036/2011gl047036-op01-tn-350x.jpg" alt="" /> </div> </div> </div> <div id="citationbox"> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" id="dates">Received 8 February 2011; accepted 31 March 2011; published 12 May 2011.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" id="citation"><strong>Citation: </strong>Enghoff, M. B., J. O. P. Pedersen, U. I. Uggerhøj, S. M. Paling, and H. Svensmark (2011), Aerosol nucleation induced by a high energy particle beam, <em>Geophys. Res. Lett.</em>, 38, L09805, doi:10.1029/2011GL047036.</p></div>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-87058375960801571502011-05-28T05:10:00.000-07:002011-05-28T06:01:15.330-07:00Latest News From CERN CLOUD ExperimentIn<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/01/cern-cloud-experiment-preliminary.html"> an earlier post</a> I made mention of an experiment being conducted by CERN called CLOUD <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">(‘cosmics leaving outdoor droplets’) which was an experiment designed to investigate the link between solar activity and the climate, </span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">to test the theory that cosmic rays spur the formation of particles in the air that nucleate clouds, in turn making skies cloudier and the planet cooler. They are doing this by </span></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">using a particle beam from CERN as a stand-in for cosmic rays, and firing them through an ultra-clean steel chamber filled with select atmospheric gases, to see if and how particles that could nucleate clouds are formed.<br /><br />Via Watts Up With That comes an update on where the experiment is currently at:<br /></span><xml><w:worddocument><w:trackmoves><w:trackformatting><w:punctuationkerning><w:validateagainstschemas><w:donotpromoteqf><w:lidthemecomplexscript></w:lidthemecomplexscript> <w:compatibility><w:breakwrappedtables><w:snaptogridincell><w:wraptextwithpunct><w:useasianbreakrules><w:dontgrowautofit><w:splitpgbreakandparamark><w:dontvertaligncellwithsp><w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables><w:dontvertalignintxbx><w:word11kerningpairs><w:cachedcolbalance></w:cachedcolbalance><m:mathpr><m:mathfont val="Cambria Math"><m:brkbin val="before"><m:brkbinsub val=""><m:smallfrac val="off"><m:dispdef><m:lmargin 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semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:lsdexception> </w:lsdexception><!--[endif]--><!----> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style> <!--[endif]--><br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/14/update-on-the-cern-cloud-experiment/">Update on the CERN CLOUD experiment</a><br /><br /><xml><w:worddocument><w:trackmoves><w:trackformatting><w:punctuationkerning><w:validateagainstschemas><w:donotpromoteqf><w:compatibility><w:breakwrappedtables><w:snaptogridincell><w:wraptextwithpunct><w:useasianbreakrules><w:dontgrowautofit><w:splitpgbreakandparamark><w:dontvertaligncellwithsp><w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables><w:dontvertalignintxbx><w:word11kerningpairs><m:mathpr><m:mathfont val="Cambria Math"><m:brkbin val="before"><m:brkbinsub val=""><m:smallfrac val="off"><m:dispdef><m:lmargin val="0"><m:rmargin val="0"><m:defjc val="centerGroup"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">According to</span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51); font-style: italic;" href="http://calderup.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">Nigel Calder’s Blog</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">,</span> CERN’s CLOUD experiment (testing Svensmarks’s cosmic-ray theory) shows a large enhancement of aerosol production and the results are due for release in 2 or 3 months’ time. There is a short Physics World interview with Jasper Kirkby which is worthwhile viewing and was published a couple of days ago…</span><xml><w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 6"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" 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</w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> </w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> </w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:lsdexception> </w:latentstyles><!--[endif]--><!----> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <!--[endif]--> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Further down, we have some information from Bishop Hill liveblogging from the recent conference in Cambridge, UK where he makes notes on Q&A with Svensmark, plus a Josh livetoon.</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">From Physics World</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/multimedia/45950" target="_blank">Head in a CLOUD</a>:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In this special video report for physicsworld.com CLOUD project leader Jasper Kirkby explains what his team is trying to achieve with its experiment. “We’re trying to understand what the connection is between a cosmic ray going through the atmosphere and the creation of so-called aerosol seeds – the seed for a cloud droplet or an ice particle,” Kirkby explains.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The CLOUD experiment recreates these cloud-forming processes by directing the beamline at CERN’s proton synchrotron into a stainless-steel chamber containing very pure air and selected trace gases.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">One of the aims of the experiment is to discover details of cloud formation that could feed back into climate models. “Everybody agrees that clouds have a huge effect on the climate. 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<!--[endif]--><!----> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style> <!--[endif]--> <p style="font-style: italic; text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left; font-style: italic;"></div><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Bishop Hill</span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/5/10/svensmark.html"> liveblogs</a> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">from Cambridge about Q&A with Henrik Svensmark:</span></div></xml></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:latentstyles></xml></m:defjc></m:rmargin></m:lmargin></m:dispdef></m:smallfrac></m:brkbinsub></m:brkbin></m:mathfont></m:mathpr></w:word11kerningpairs></w:dontvertalignintxbx></w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables></w:dontvertaligncellwithsp></w:splitpgbreakandparamark></w:dontgrowautofit></w:useasianbreakrules></w:wraptextwithpunct></w:snaptogridincell></w:breakwrappedtables></w:compatibility></w:donotpromoteqf></w:validateagainstschemas></w:punctuationkerning></w:trackformatting></w:trackmoves></w:worddocument></xml></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:latentstyles></xml></m:defjc></m:rmargin></m:lmargin></m:dispdef></m:smallfrac></m:brkbinsub></m:brkbin></m:mathfont></m:mathpr></w:word11kerningpairs></w:dontvertalignintxbx></w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables></w:dontvertaligncellwithsp></w:splitpgbreakandparamark></w:dontgrowautofit></w:useasianbreakrules></w:wraptextwithpunct></w:snaptogridincell></w:breakwrappedtables></w:compatibility></w:donotpromoteqf></w:validateagainstschemas></w:punctuationkerning></w:trackformatting></w:trackmoves></w:worddocument></xml><p></p><p style="text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;"></p><div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: left;"> </div><ul style="text-align: left; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" type="disc"></ul><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Solar effect appears to be large. If exclude solar or regime change, then it makes anthropogenic look much bigger. These effects are not well covered by climate models.</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Can effect be seen in climate? Use ocean heat content. Forcings = volcanoes, gcr, anthropogenic and a regime change in 1977. Solar effect ~1Wm-2, compares well with Shaviv. If remove solar effect left with apparent regime change in 1977. This can be seen in eg tropospheric temps.</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Coronal mass ejections – decrease in gcrs at earth – forbush decrease. Is there an atmospheric response? Liquid water in clouds over oceans fall after forbush decrease. Ditto in low clouds etc. Aerosols ditto</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Always lots of nucleation centres in atmosphere. Is this right?</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Use trace gases in atmosph concentrations. Change amount of ionisation. See if you get more aerosol particles. SKY experiment.</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Correlation between low clouds and GCRs – but need mechanism. Ions?</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Discussion of LIA and solar. Solar irradiance too small to explain Need amplification mechanism – clouds.</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Get correlations between eg stalagmite 18O and solar variability</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">One particle entering atmosphere generates shower of particles – incl ions which change chemistry</li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">CRs accelerated by solar events – supernovae.</li><div style="text-align: left;"></div><xml style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;"></xml><w:latentstyles style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;" deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"></w:latentstyles><w:lsdexception style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); 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font-style: italic;" locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;" locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 1"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;" locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 1"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;" locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 1"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;" locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"></w:lsdexception><w:lsdexception style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;" locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"></w:lsdexception><br /><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"></w:lsdexception>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-45769810664424348622011-04-21T22:59:00.000-07:002011-04-21T23:19:05.766-07:00Geoengineering - Not Quite The Fix They Thought It WasIn <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/acid-seas-and-coral-reefs-part-3.html">earlier posts</a> I have raised concerns about scientists who think themselves so clever that they are willing to mess about with the environment in the hope that they produce a Geoengineered solution to a perceived problem. There are no guarantees that these solutions will not in fact make things much worse for us all if they are not as clever as they think they are. It seems <strong style="font-weight: normal;">Dr. Roger Pielke Senior</strong><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/pielke-senior-on-geoengineering/"> shares those same concerns</a>:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Pielke Senior on Geoengineering</span> <p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/geoengineering1.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-37990 alignnone" title="geoengineering[1]" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/geoengineering1.jpg?w=400&h=279" alt="" height="279" width="400" /></a></p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Guest post at WUWT by Dr. Roger Pielke Senior</strong></p> <p style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a title="Permalink to Comment on The BBC News Article By Richard Black On Climate Geoengineering" href="http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/04/15/comment-on-the-bbc-news-article-by-richard-black-on-climate-geoengineering/" rel="bookmark">Comment on The BBC News Article By Richard Black On Climate Geoengineering</a></p> <div style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> <p>There is an article on BBC News on April 6 2011 by Richard Black titled</p> <p style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12983795">Climate ‘technical fix’ may yield warming, not cooling</a></p> <p>The article starts with the text</p> <blockquote style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>“Whitening clouds by spraying them with seawater, proposed as a “technical fix” for climate change, could do more harm than good, according to research.’</p> <p>Whiter clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, cooling the Earth.</p> <p><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">But a study presented at the European Geosciences Union meeting found that using water droplets of the wrong size would lead to warming, not cooling</span>.”</p></blockquote> <p>This article further underscores how little we know about the climate system. <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;">To deliberately alter the system by geoengineering is, therefore, quite a risky approach. </span>The reason it is even being considered is that there remains the assumption that added CO2 is the dominate climate forcing that can “disrupt” the climate system from its current equilibrium.</p> <p><span id="more-37989"></span></p> <p>Such a static view of the climate is not supported by observations (e.g. <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/march-2011-lower-tropospheric-global-temperature-analysis-from-the-university-of-alabama-at-huntsville/">see</a>) yet this simplistic view persists as illustrated by the 2007 IPCC, and, more specifically by the BBC news article. In the article it is written [highlight added]</p> <p style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153); text-align: left;">“In an era when many climate scientists are frustrated by slow progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cloud whitening has sometimes been held up as an example of a technology that could make a real difference, at least to “buy time”.</p> <blockquote style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>The technique’s prospects depend crucially on how droplet size affects reflectivity It has been calculated that a fairly modest increase in the reflectivity of these marine clouds <strong>could balance the warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere</strong> – although even proponents admit it would do nothing to combat the other major consequence of carbon emissions, ocean acidification.”</p></blockquote> <p>One of the interviewees for the news article does realize this is a complex issue. As Richard Black writes</p> <blockquote style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>“…Piers Forster from the UK’s University of Leeds, who is leading a major UK project on geoengineering techniques, suggested more research would be needed before cloud whitening could be considered for “prime time” use.</p> <p>“The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions,” he said.”</p></blockquote> <p>The statement that <em style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">“a fairly modest increase in the reflectivity of these marine clouds could balance the warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere”</em> illustrates the failure of many to understand the real behavior of the climate system. Even with respect to just the radiative forcing effect of aerosols, in addition to any global average forcing, <strong style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">it is spatial heterogeneity that matters much more than a global average in terms of how weather and ocean patterns could be modified.</strong></p> <p>As we have shown with respect to inadvertant inputs of aerosols into the atmsophere by human activities; i.e. see</p> <p>Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-312.pdf">Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing</a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">.</span> Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.</p> <p>in regards to their effect on atmospheric circulations in the tropical and subtropical latitudes, in our study, their influence is<strong> ~60 times </strong>that of the radiative effect of CO2. The deliberate insertion of aerosols for geoengineering would similarly have a large effect on circulation patterns. There is <strong>no way to balance </strong>the effect of CO2 and of aerosols with the approach discussed in this paper. <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;">Adding aerosols as part of geoengineering is not a “</span><em style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;">climate fix</em><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;">” but a recipe for climate disruption. </span></p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">The real question then becomes are willing to let these scientist mess about with the environment to fix a problem that may not even yet be a problem?<br /></span></div>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-49134273157660864032011-04-21T21:45:00.000-07:002011-04-21T22:55:31.957-07:00Sea Levels Don't Respond To Alarmism<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbJxlD6xLvb4zsI2gerz-Tx8sTIujDGCuHb_gvyB83sBie6yxL07FRF3IIaZ2Rv1hLlZCfr8StSURCyHVLF7YvSf6Wn0zjPskkHeDJClaNH80AgVdoX3rs4Gldi2j2bYTGI1Qxu0Jz8uI/s1600/garnaut_wideweb__470x302%252C0.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 257px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbJxlD6xLvb4zsI2gerz-Tx8sTIujDGCuHb_gvyB83sBie6yxL07FRF3IIaZ2Rv1hLlZCfr8StSURCyHVLF7YvSf6Wn0zjPskkHeDJClaNH80AgVdoX3rs4Gldi2j2bYTGI1Qxu0Jz8uI/s400/garnaut_wideweb__470x302%252C0.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5598265110240325154" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">In March 2011, The Gillard Government wheeled out it's Climate Change expert (Economist- not Climate Scientist) Professor Ross Garnaut to talk in support of it's newly proposed Carbon (read Carbon Dioxide) Tax. He gave an interview to The Australian newspaper where he predictably claimed: <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate-change-may-be-worse-than-feared-ross-garnaut/story-fn59niix-1226019388419">Climate Change may be worse than feared</a>. 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semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"><w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><em>Ross Garnaut, Julia Gillard’s climate change adviser, yesterday issued a gloomy review of the </em><em>latest science on global warming, finding the “awful reality” is that previous research may </em><em>have underestimated the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere… </em></p><div style="text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </div><p style="text-align: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><em>While temperatures continue to rise around the midpoints of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change range of projections, he says ”</em><a style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;" href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate-change-may-be-worse-than-feared-ross-garnaut/story-fn59niix-1226019388419" title="the rate of sea-level rise has accelerated ">the rate of sea-level rise has accelerated </a><em>and is tracking above the range suggested by the IPCC”.</em></p><div style="text-align: left;">So according to Economist Professor Ross Garnaut the rate of sea level rises are "accelerating" if that is true then we should see a increasing up tick on the University of Colorado data from the JASON 1 and JASON 2 satellites that they use to check these rises.<br /><br />Not so, claims Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That: <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/17/doing-it-yourself-the-latest-global-sea-level-data-from-jason-shows-a-sharp-downtick-and-downtrend/">The Latest Unsmoothed Global Sea Level Data From JASON Shows A Sharp Downtick And Slight Down Trend</a>.<br /><br />From these graphs put together it shows the recent sharp downturn in the readings.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji3_P_BOlL6lCRL14ewHA_Uc8vxkH3FbUHVfqd9ANPJF69E-o9oWbVwvrqYAh1SWRAkyo9eZMKs5DCarCFubDz7lZGAuQLm5_u-fS30P_i4tsx09xWfGbAJcJxo72CF7sq_pgJweLWha0/s1600/romanm_slensemble_annotated.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 269px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji3_P_BOlL6lCRL14ewHA_Uc8vxkH3FbUHVfqd9ANPJF69E-o9oWbVwvrqYAh1SWRAkyo9eZMKs5DCarCFubDz7lZGAuQLm5_u-fS30P_i4tsx09xWfGbAJcJxo72CF7sq_pgJweLWha0/s400/romanm_slensemble_annotated.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5598279746969236242" border="0" /></a><div style="text-align: left;">The next shows a trend since 2002, which is clearly not an upward trend, nor an accelerating one.<br /></div><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqRF7sSF9lP_qkkChG4pJqRJoWp2gT3ScQpS9oxYltgDgkOm7HY3U2IcLdrMvD9dQH4gY2KzpM0AnYcTH-X12t4ZNMnRQynsVr2qGV-Chy3vuLOu5RLU4Ugkd_OGV8lUYjPLw_BPaWkpA/s1600/jason_tgcal_2010_rel41.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 279px;" 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qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:lsdexception> </xml><!--[endif]--><!--> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <!--[endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal" face="georgia" style="line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Without sea-level acceleration, the 20th-century sea-level trend of 1.7 mm/y would produce a rise of only approximately 0.15 m from 2010 to 2100; therefore, sea-level acceleration is a critical component of projected sea-level rise. To determine this acceleration, we analyze monthly-averaged records for 57 U.S. tide gauges in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data base that have lengths of 60–156 years. Least-squares quadratic analysis of each of the 57 records are performed to quantify accelerations, and 25 gauge records having data spanning from 1930 to 2010 are analyzed. <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">In both cases we obtain small average sea-level decelerations.</span> To compare these results with worldwide data, we extend the analysis of Douglas (1992) by an additional 25 years and analyze revised data of Church and White (2006) from 1930 to 2007 and also obtain small sea-level decelerations similar to those we obtain from U.S. gauge records.</p> The full PDF of the above Abstract can be seen<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1"> here</a>.<br /><br />If this is the quality of advice that Julia Gillard is receiving from her trusted advisors then is it any wonder she has been duped into proposing a Carbon (Dioxide) Tax only months after categorically ruling one out.<br /><br /></xml></m:defjc></m:rmargin></m:lmargin></m:dispdef></m:smallfrac></m:brkbinsub></m:brkbin></m:mathfont></m:mathpr></w:word11kerningpairs></w:dontvertalignintxbx></w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables></w:dontvertaligncellwithsp></w:splitpgbreakandparamark></w:dontgrowautofit></w:useasianbreakrules></w:wraptextwithpunct></w:snaptogridincell></w:breakwrappedtables></w:compatibility></w:donotpromoteqf></w:validateagainstschemas></w:punctuationkerning></w:trackformatting></w:trackmoves></w:worddocument></xml></div></div></div></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:lsdexception></w:latentstyles></xml></m:defjc></m:rmargin></m:lmargin></m:dispdef></m:smallfrac></m:brkbinsub></m:brkbin></m:mathfont></m:mathpr></w:word11kerningpairs></w:dontvertalignintxbx></w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables></w:dontvertaligncellwithsp></w:splitpgbreakandparamark></w:dontgrowautofit></w:useasianbreakrules></w:wraptextwithpunct></w:snaptogridincell></w:breakwrappedtables></w:compatibility></w:donotpromoteqf></w:validateagainstschemas></w:punctuationkerning></w:trackformatting></w:trackmoves></w:worddocument></xml></div>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-9339115310175694372011-04-21T20:56:00.000-07:002011-04-26T05:59:50.477-07:00Two Important Interviews In The Carbon Dioxide Tax Debate<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbsJEqfKnqQhXvf_DdpHo5C5tJu9zMCjulqisj6u1G70_MeMVIq3m5RM6AcjszrH3Nuey5nFBDjYkU1Vr58hvRd65tsGoGQxXOgwIFLWu7wBFXU7h9EK8gaotDg9ztN3Nkj6P15FyfUgs/s1600/636825-carbon-price.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbsJEqfKnqQhXvf_DdpHo5C5tJu9zMCjulqisj6u1G70_MeMVIq3m5RM6AcjszrH3Nuey5nFBDjYkU1Vr58hvRd65tsGoGQxXOgwIFLWu7wBFXU7h9EK8gaotDg9ztN3Nkj6P15FyfUgs/s400/636825-carbon-price.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5598261916256044770" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br /><object style="height="344" width="425""><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/KMVc0IbtyAQ?version=3"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KMVc0IbtyAQ?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" height="344" width="425"></object><br /><br />In the Australian Federal Election campaign in 2010 the current Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard announced that "<span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">there will be no Carbon Tax under the government I lead!</span>", yet in February 2011 she announced plans for a carbon dioxide tax (referred to decitfully as a "Carbon" Tax) in coalition with her new Green partners in government. At first she denied she had lied to the public about introducing this tax, but eventually conceeded that she had indeed "changed her position"and sought to introduce a Carbon Tax.<br /><br />As part of the debate that has continued in Australia since that announcement was these two interviews conducted by radio staion 2GB's Chris Smith with firstly Dr. John Christy and then Professor Richard Lindzen on whether Australia needs to introduce a Carbon (read Carbon Dioxide) Tax.<br /><br />Both are very informative an well worth listening to:<br /><br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.2gb.com/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=8563">Dr. John Christy interview</a><br /><br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.2gb.com/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=8613">Professor Richard Lindzen interview</a>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-17345379566520734002011-01-13T22:49:00.000-08:002011-01-13T22:50:38.230-08:00Global Warming Panic ExplainedAn interesting video from You Tube:<br /><br /><object style="height: 344px; width: 425px"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/cdxaxJNs15s?version=3"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/cdxaxJNs15s?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" height="344" width="425"></object>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-51738329304092194562011-01-13T22:14:00.000-08:002011-01-13T22:39:25.181-08:00CERN CLOUD Experiment - Preliminary ResultsIn earlier posts I have discussed studies that draw a linkage between temperature and both <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/cosmic-rays.html">Cosmic</a> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/10/cosmic-rays-hit-space-age-high.html">Rays</a> and <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/01/cloud-mystery-video-series.html">Cloud</a> Activity. Part of the development of those studies was the creation of the <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/research/CLOUD-en.html">CLOUD Experiment</a> by CERN to better understand the effects of cosmic rays on cloud creation around the globe and as a result the linkage (if any) to global warming and climate change.<br /><br />Anthony Watts gives an update on its progress on his blog <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/16/preliminary-results-for-the-cern-cloud-cosmic-ray-experiment/">Watts Up With That</a>.<br /><br /><span class="author vcard"></span> <div class="entry-content"> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/cosmic_rays_hit_earth1.jpg"><img style="width: 403px; height: 324px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-29538" title="cosmic_rays_hit_earth[1]" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/cosmic_rays_hit_earth1.jpg?w=400&h=320" alt="" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">From</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegreatbeyond/">Nature blog</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">:</span> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Sunny days for CLOUD experiment</span></p> <div style="font-style: italic;"> <p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">An experiment designed to investigate the link between solar activity and the climate has its first results in the bag. At the American Geophysical Union</span> <a href="http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm10/"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">meeting</span> </a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">in San Francisco today, Joachim Curtius presented data from the first runs of the</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/research/CLOUD-en.html">CLOUD </a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(‘cosmics leaving outdoor droplets’) experiment at CERN – the European particle physics lab outside of Geneva.</span></p> </div> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The experiment has a long and bumpy history. The idea is to test the theory that cosmic rays spur the formation of particles in the air that nucleate clouds, in turn making skies cloudier and the planet cooler. Researchers have noted a dearth of sunspots (which is linked to more cosmic rays) during the ‘little ice age’ of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, and a peak in sunspots (linked to a drop in cosmic rays) during the late 1980s, when global cloudiness dropped by about 3% (see </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Nature</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">‘s</span> <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/full/443141a.html"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">feature</span> </a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">on the project). No one knows how big this effect might be, and the idea that it might account for a big chunk of the warming over the last century is highly controversial.</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span id="more-29537"></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">CLOUD uses a particle beam from CERN as a stand-in for cosmic rays, and fires them through an ultra-clean steel chamber filled with select atmospheric gases, to see if and how particles that could nucleate clouds are formed. Project head Jasper Kirkby proposed the experiment back in 1998. But it had a hard time getting off the ground – perhaps in part because Kirkby received bad press for emphasizing the importance of cosmic rays to climate change (see this </span><a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=975f250d-ca5d-4f40-b687-a1672ed1f684"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">story</span> </a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">from the </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">National Post</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">). CLOUD finally got going in 2006, and they started work with the full kit in November 2009 (here’s a CERN</span> <a href="http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1221088"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">video</span> </a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">update about that).</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The results haven’t yet been published, so Curtius declined to discuss the details. But the important thing is that the project is working – they have seen sulphuric acid and water combine to make particles when blasted by the CERN beam, for example, in a way that matches predictions of the most recent models. The data should help the team to quantify how much of an impact the Sun is having on climate within 2-3 years, Curtius says – though there are a lot more pieces of the puzzle to fill in.</p> <p style="font-style: italic;">============================================================</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><img style="width: 418px; height: 297px;" src="http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/06_projekter/cloud/cloud01-560.jpg" alt="/upload/institutter/space/forskning/06_projekter/cloud/cloud01-560.jpg" border="0" /></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Dr. Roy Spencer has mentioned that it doesn’t take much in the way of cloud cover changes to add up to the “global warming signal” that has been observed. He writes in</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.amazon.com/Great-Global-Warming-Blunder-Scientists/dp/1594033730/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&tag=wattsupwithth-20&s=books&qid=1271759263&sr=1-4">The Great Global Warming Blunder</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">:</span></p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling.</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This graph certainly lends credence to the theory:</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/cosmic_rays_and_cloud_cover-marsh1.jpg"><img style="width: 407px; height: 273px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-29539" title="Cosmic rays and low cloud cover" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/cosmic_rays_and_cloud_cover-marsh1.jpg?w=450&h=301" alt="" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Here’s a longer record of cosmic rays:</p> <div style="font-style: italic;" class="mceTemp"> <div class="zemanta-img zemanta-action-dragged"> <div class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px;"><a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Galaktische_Kosmische_Strahlung_von_1951_bis_2006.jpg"><img style="width: 397px; height: 190px;" title="Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) from 1951 to 2006. ..." src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/Galaktische_Kosmische_Strahlung_von_1951_bis_2006.jpg/300px-Galaktische_Kosmische_Strahlung_von_1951_bis_2006.jpg" alt="Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) from 1951 to 2006. ..." /></a><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" class="wp-caption-text">Image via Wikipedia</p></div> </div> </div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">See also these WUWT stories:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/25/something-to-be-thankful-for-at-last-cosmic-rays-linked-to-rapid-mid-latitude-cloud-changes/" target="_blank">Something to be thankful for! At last: Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes</a></p><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/01/message-in-the-cloud-for-warmists-the-end-is-near/"><span style="font-style: italic;">Message in the CLOUD for Warmists: The end is near?</span></a></div>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-35493984772519185982011-01-13T21:47:00.000-08:002011-01-13T22:13:19.916-08:00Is The Warming Still Too Large To Be Explained By Solar?In conjunction with the <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2011/01/new-peer-reiviewed-paper-shows-absence.html">recent peer reviewed study</a> showing a greater correlation between temperature changes and solar activity than with CO2 is this post from <strong style="font-weight: normal;">Alec Rawls</strong> via the <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/02/do-solar-scientists-still-think-that-recent-warming-is-too-large-to-explain-by-solar-activity/">Watts Up With That</a> blog entitled: <span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br />Do solar scientists STILL think that recent warming is too large to explain by solar activity?</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Study of the sun-climate link was energized in 1991 by Friis-Christensen and Lassen, who showed a strong</span> </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://friendsofscience.org/assets/files/documents/Solar%20Cycle%20-%20Friis-Chr_Lassen-.pdf">correlation</a><span style="font-style: italic;"> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">between solar-cycle length and global temperature:</span></span> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/friis-christensen-lassen-19911.png"><img style="width: 407px; height: 253px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-30686" title="Friis-Christensen, Lassen, 1991" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/friis-christensen-lassen-19911.png?w=512&h=317" alt="" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This evidence that much of 20th century warming might be explained by solar activity was a thorn in the side of the newly powerful CO2 alarmists, who blamed recent warming on human burning of fossil fuels. That may be why Lassen and Thejll were quick to offer an</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr99-9.pdf">update</a> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">as soon as the 1997-98 El Nino made it look as if temperatures were suddenly skyrocketing:</span></p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>The rapid temperature rise recently seems to call for a quantitative revisit of the solar activity-air temperature association …</p></blockquote> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>We conclude that since around 1990 the type of Solar forcing that is described by the solar cycle length model no longer dominates the long-term variation of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature.</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In other words, there was now <em>too much</em> warming to account for by solar cycle length, so some other factor, such as CO2, had to be driving the most recent warming. Of course everyone knew that the 1998 warming had actually been caused by ocean oscillations. Even lay people knew it. (El Nino storm tracks were all the news for six months here in California.)</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">When Lassen was writing his update in mid ’99, temperatures had already <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt">dropped back</a> to 1990 levels. His 8 year update was outdated before it was published. 12 years later the 2010 El Nino year shows the same average temperature as the ’98 El Nino year, and if post-El Nino temperatures continue to fall off the way they did in 99, we’ll be back to 1990 temperatures by mid-2011. Isn’t it about time Friis-Cristensen, Lassen and Thejll issued another update? Do they still think there has been too much recent warming to be accounted for by solar activity?</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><span id="more-30681"></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The most important update may be the discovery that, where Lassen and his colleagues found a correlation between the length of a solar-cycle and temperatures over that cycle, others have been finding a much stronger correlation to temperatures over the <em>next</em> cycle (reported at WUWT <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/13/solar-driven-temperature-decline-predicted-for-norway-by-a-norwegian/">this summer</a> by David Archibald).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">This further correlation has the advantage of allowing us make projections. As Archibald deciphers Solheim’s Norwegian:</p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>since the period length of previous cycle (no 23) is at least 3 years longer than for cycle no 22, the temperature is expected to decrease by 0.6 – 1.8 degrees over the following 10-12 years.</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Check out this alarming graphic from</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SolarCycleLengthandGlobalTemperatureAnomalies1.pdf">Stephen Strum</a> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">of Frontier Weather Inc:</span></p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/lagged-solar-cycle-length-and-temp-stephen-strum-frontier-weather-inc.png"><img style="width: 407px; height: 267px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-30685" title="Lagged solar cycle length and temp, Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather Inc." src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/lagged-solar-cycle-length-and-temp-stephen-strum-frontier-weather-inc.png?w=640&h=418" alt="Lagged solar cycle length and temp, Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather Inc." /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The snowed in Danes might like to see these projections, before they bet the rest of their climate eggs on a dangerous war against CO2.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>From sins of omission to sins of commission</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In 2007, solar scientist Mike Lockwood told the</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/solar-activity-not-the-cause-of-global-warming-456785.html">press</a> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">about some findings he and Claus Frohlich had just</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/463/2086/2447.full#aff-3">published</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">:</span></p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>In 1985, the Sun did a U-turn in every respect. It no longer went in the right direction to contribute to global warming. We think it’s almost completely conclusive proof that the Sun does not account for the recent increases in global warming.</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Actually, solar cycle 22, which began in 1986, was one of the most intense on record (part of the 20th century “grand maximum” that was the most active sun of the last</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf">11 thousand years</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">), and by almost every measure it was </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">more</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> intense than solar cycle 21. It had about the same sunspot numbers as cycle 21 (Hathaway </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/">2006</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">):</span></p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/sunspot-prediction-nasa-2006.jpg"><img style="width: 409px; height: 206px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-30687" title="Sunspot prediction, NASA 2006" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/sunspot-prediction-nasa-2006.jpg?w=500&h=250" alt="Sunspot prediction, NASA-Hathaway, 2006" /></a></p> <p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">Cycle 22 ran more solar flux than cycle 21 (via</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://motls.blogspot.com/2007/07/nir-shaviv-why-is-lockwood-and-frohlich.html">Nir Shaviv</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">):</span></p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/open-solar-flux-via-nir-shaviv.jpg"><img style="width: 407px; height: 286px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-30688" title="Open solar flux, via Nir Shaviv" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/open-solar-flux-via-nir-shaviv.jpg?w=407&h=284" alt="" /></a></p> <p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Cycle 22 was shorter than cycle 21 (from </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcyclestory.pdf">Joseph D’Aleo</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">):</span></p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/solar-cycle-length-joseph-daleo-med.png"><img style="width: 409px; height: 245px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-30689" title="Solar cycle length, Joseph D'Aleo, med" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/solar-cycle-length-joseph-daleo-med.png?w=498&h=297" alt="Solar cycle length, from Joseph D'Aleo" /></a></p> <p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Perhaps most important is solar activity as measured (inversely) by the cosmic ray flux (which many think is mechanism by which solar activity drives climate). Here cycle 22 is THE most intense in the 60 year record, stronger even than cycle 19, the sunspot number king. From the </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.atnf.csiro.au/pasa/18_1/duldig/paper/node5.html">Astronomical Society of Australia</a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">:</span></p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/neutron-chicago-climax-with-sunspots.png"><img style="width: 410px; height: 157px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-30690" title="Neutron Chicago Climax with sunspots" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/neutron-chicago-climax-with-sunspots.png?w=640&h=243" alt="Neutron counts, Climaz Colorado, with sunspots, Univ. of Chicago" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Some “U-turn in every respect.”</p> <p><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">If Lockwood and Frohlich simply wanted to argue that the peak of the modern maximum of solar activity was between solar cycles 21 and 22 it would be unobjectionable. What difference does it make exactly when the peak was reached? But this is exactly where their real misdirection comes in. They claim that the peak of solar activity marks the point where any solar-climate effect should move from a warming to a cooling direction. Here is the abstract from their 2007 Royal Society</span> </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/463/2086/2447.full#aff-3">article</a><span style="font-style: italic;">:</span></p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p><strong>Abstract</strong> There is considerable evidence for solar influence on the Earth’s pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a factor in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last century. Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In order to assert the need for some other explanation for recent warming (CO2), they are claiming that near peak levels of solar activity cannot have a warming effect once they are past the peak of the trend—that it is not the level of solar activity that causes warming or cooling, but the <em>change</em> in the level—which is absurd.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Ken Gregory has the most precise answer to this foolishness. His “<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen8/GregoryLockwood.html">climate smoothing</a>” graphic shows how the temperature of a heat sink <em>actually</em> responds to a fall-off in forcing:</p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/gregory-climate-smoothing-contra-lockwood.gif"><img style="width: 408px; height: 340px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-30691" title="Gregory, climate smoothing, contra-Lockwood" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/gregory-climate-smoothing-contra-lockwood.gif?w=451&h=376" alt="Gregory, climate smoothing, contra-Lockwood" /></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">“Note that the temperature continues to rise for several years after the Sun’s forcing starts to decrease.”</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Gregory’s numbers here are arbitrary. It could be many years before a fall off in forcing causes temperatures to start rising. In the case of solar cycle 22—where if solar forcing was actually past its peak, it had only fallen off a tiny bit—the only way temperature would not keep rising over the whole solar cycle is if global temperature had already equilibrated to peak solar forcing, which Lockwood and Frohlich make no argument for.</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The obvious interpretation of the data is that we never did reach equilibrium temperatures, allowing grand maximum levels of solar activity to continue to warm the planet until the sun suddenly went quiet. Now </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">there’s</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> an update for Lockwood and Frohlich. How about telling the public when solar activity really </span><em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">did</em><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> do “U” (</span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/04/solar-geomagnetic-ap-index-now-at-lowest-point-in-its-history/">October 2005</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">).</span></p><a href="http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/c153.pdf"></a><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Usoskin, Benestad, and a host of other solar scientists also mistakenly assume that temperature is driven by trend instead of level</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Maybe it is because so much of the evidence for a sun-climate link comes from correlation studies, which look for contemporaneous changes in solar activity and temperature. Surely the scientists who are doing these studies all understand that there is no possible mechanism by which the rate of change in solar activity can itself drive temperature. If temperature changes when solar activity changes, it is because the new LEVEL of solar activity has a warming or cooling effect.</p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Still, a remarkable number of these scientists say things like this (from Usoskin et al. </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/c153.pdf">200</a><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/c153.pdf">5</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">):</span> </p><blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>The long term trends in solar data and in northern hemisphere temperatures have a correlation coefficient of about 0.7 — .8 at a 94% — 98% confidence level. …</p> <p>… Note that the most recent warming, since around 1975, has not been considered in the above correlations. During these last 30 years the total solar irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most warming episode must have another source.</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Set aside the other problems with Usoskin’s study. (The temperature record he compared his solar data to is Michael Mann’s “hockey stick.”) How can he claim overwhelming evidence for a sun-climate link, while simultaneously insisting that steady peak levels of solar activity can’t create warming? If steady peak levels coincide with warming, it supposedly means the sun-climate link is now broken, so warming must be due to some other cause, like CO2.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">It is hard to believe that scientists could make such a basic mistake, and Usoskin et al. certainly have powerful incentive to <em>play</em> dumb: to pretend that their correlation studies are finding physical mechanisms by which it is changes in the level of solar activity, rather than the levels themselves, that drive temperature. Just elide this important little nuance and presto, modern warming gets misattributed to CO2, allowing these researchers to stay on the good side of the CO2 alarmists who control their funding. Still, the old adage is often right: never attribute to bad motives what can just as well be explained by simple error.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">And of course there can be both.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>RealClimate exchange on trend vs. level confusion</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Finally we arrive at the beginning, for me anyway. I first came across trend-level confusion 5 years ago at RealClimate. Rasmus Benestad was <a href="http://errortheory.blogspot.com/2005/02/is-realclimate-part-of-reality-based.html">claiming</a> that, because post 1960′s levels of Galactic Cosmic Radiation have not been trending downwards, GCR cannot be the cause of post-60′s warming.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">But solar activity has been well above historical norms since the 40’s. It doesn’t matter what the trend is. The solar-wind is up. According to the GCR-cloud theory, that blows away the GCR, which blows away the clouds, creating warming. The solar wind doesn’t have to KEEP going up. It is the LEVEL that matters, not the trend. Holy cow. Benestad was looking at the wrong derivative (one instead of zero).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A few months later I took an opportunity to state my rebuttal as <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/did-the-sun-hit-record-highs-over-the-last-few-decades/">politely</a> as possible, which elicited a response from Gavin Schmidt. Here is our 2005 exchange:</p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><p><strong>Me</strong>: Nice post, but the conclusion: “… solar activity has not increased since the 1950s and is therefore unlikely to be able to explain the recent warming,” would seem to be a non-sequitur.</p></blockquote> <blockquote style="font-style: italic;"><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">What matters is not the trend in solar activity but the level. It does not have to KEEP going up to be a possible cause of warming. It just has to be high, and it has been since the forties.</p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Presumably you are looking at the modest drop in temperature in the fifties and sixties as inconsistent with a simple solar warming explanation, but it doesn’t have to be simple. Earth has heat sinks that could lead to measured effects being delayed, and other forcings may also be involved. The best evidence for causality would seem to be the long term correlations between solar activity and temperature change. Despite the differences between the different proxies for solar activity, isn’t the overall picture one of long term correlation to temperature?</p> <p style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">[<strong>Response</strong>: You are correct in that you would expect a lag, however, the response to an increase to a steady level of forcing is a lagged increase in temperature and then a asymptotic relaxation to the eventual equilibrium. This is not what is seen. In fact, the rate of temperature increase is rising, and that is only compatible with a continuing increase in the forcing, i.e. from greenhouse gases. - gavin]</p></blockquote> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Gavin admits here that it’s the level of solar activity, not the trend in solar activity, that drives temperature. He’s just assuming that grand maximum levels of solar forcing should have bought the planet close to equilibrium temperature before post-80′s warming hit, but that assumption is completely unwarranted. If solar activity is driving climate (the hypothetical that Schmidt is analyzing), we know that it can push temperatures a lot higher than they are today. Surely Gavin knows about the Viking settlement of Greenland.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The rapid warming in the late 90′s could easily have been caused by the monster solar cycle 22 and there is no reason to think that another big cycle wouldn’t have brought more of the same. Two or three more cycle 22s and we might have been hauling out the longships, which would be great. No one has ever suggested that natural warming is anything but benign. Natural cooling bad, natural warming good. But alas, a longer grand maximum was not to be.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Gavin’s admission that it is level not trend that drives temperature change is important because ALL of the alarmist solar scientists are making the trend-level mistake. If they would admit that the correct framework is to look at the level of forcing and the lapse to equilibrium then they would be forced to look at the actual mechanisms of forcing and equilibration, instead of ignoring key forcings on the pretense that steady peak levels of forcing cannot cause warming.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">That’s the big update that all of our solar scientists need to make. They need to stop tolerating this crazy charade that allows the CO2 alarmists to ignore the impact of decades of grand maximum solar activity and misattribute the resulting warming to fossil fuel burning. It is a scientific fraud of the most disastrous proportions, giving the eco-lunatics the excuse they need to unplug the modern world.<br /></p><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-56783280167164099582011-01-13T21:30:00.000-08:002011-01-13T21:44:30.421-08:00New Peer Reiviewed Paper Shows “Absence Of Correlation Between Temperature Changes … And CO2″Via <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/01/new-peer-reviewed-paper-absence-of-correlation-between-temperature-changes-and-co2/#more-30722">Watts Up With That</a> and from Joe D’Aleo of <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.icecap.us/">ICECAP</a> is this peer reviewed paper that demonstrated a better correlation of temperature with the PDO and Solar influences than via any increase in CO2.<br /><br /><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/01/25/warming-trend-pdo-and-solar-correlate-better-than-co2/" target="_blank">Warming Trend: PDO And Solar Correlate Better Than CO2</a> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 417px; height: 218px;" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/daleo-cru-msu-co2.png?w=640" alt="daleo-cru-msu-co2.png" /></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Joe wrote then:</p> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>Clearly the US annual temperatures over the last century have correlated far better with cycles in the sun and oceans than carbon dioxide. The correlation with carbon dioxide seems to have vanished or even reversed in the last decade.</p></blockquote> <p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">There’s a new paper by Paulo Cesar Soares in the</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=3447&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=ijg13&utm_campaign=01" target="_blank"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">International Journal of Geosciences</span> </a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">supporting Joe’s idea, and it is full and open access. See link below.</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations with Temperature Changes </strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Author: Paulo Cesar Soares</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">The dramatic and threatening environmental changes announced for the next decades are the result of models whose main drive factor of climatic changes is the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Although taken as a premise, the hypothesis does not have verifiable consistence. The comparison of temperature changes and CO2 changes in the atmosphere is made for a large diversity of conditions, with the same data used to model climate changes. Correlation of historical series of data is the main approach. CO2 changes are closely related to temperature. <span id="more-30722"></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Warmer seasons or triennial phases are followed by an atmosphere that is rich in CO2, reflecting the gas solving or exsolving from water, and not photosynthesis activity. Interannual correlations between the variables are good. A weak dominance of temperature changes precedence, relative to CO2 changes, indicate that the main effect is the CO2 increase in the atmosphere due to temperature rising. Decreasing temperature is not followed by CO2 decrease, which indicates a different route for the CO2 capture by the oceans, not by gas re-absorption. Monthly changes have no correspondence as would be expected if the warming was an important absorption-radiation effect of the CO2 increase.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">The anthropogenic wasting of fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere shows no relation with the temperature changes even in an annual basis. The absence of immediate relation between CO2 and temperature is evidence that rising its mix ratio in the atmosphere will not imply more absorption and time residence of energy over the Earth surface. This is explained because band absorption is nearly all done with historic CO2 values. Unlike CO2, water vapor in the atmosphere is rising in tune with temperature changes, even in a monthly scale. The rising energy absorption of vapor is reducing the outcoming long wave radiation window and amplifying warming regionally and in a different way around the globe.</p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">…</p> <p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;"><strong>From the conclusion:</strong></p> <div id="attachment_30724" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 571px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/soares_figure21.png"><img style="width: 407px; height: 253px;" class="size-full wp-image-30724" title="Soares_Figure21" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/soares_figure21.png?w=561&h=348" alt="" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" class="wp-caption-text">Figure 21. Changes of specific humidity (vapor) in atmosphere compared to tropical and global temperature changes (vapor data from Tyndall Center)</p></div> <div id="attachment_30725" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 467px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/soares_fig22.png"><img style="width: 407px; height: 359px;" class="size-full wp-image-30725" title="Soares_Fig22" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/soares_fig22.png?w=457&h=402" alt="" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);" class="wp-caption-text">Figure 22. Cause and effect of specific humidity in the atmosphere associated with temperature changes: correlation in monthly scale, compared to CO2 correlation, between 1983 and 2003. Temperature from tropical band; CO2 at Mauna Loa (CDIAC)</p></div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">The main conclusion one arrives at the analysis is that CO2 has not a causal relation with global warming and it is not powerful enough to cause the historical changes in temperature that were observed. The main argument is the absence of immediate correlation between CO2 changes preceding temperature either for global or local changes. The greenhouse effect of the CO2 is very small compared to the water vapor because the absorbing effect is already realized with its historical values. So, the reduction of the outcoming long wave radiation window is not a consequence of current enrichment or even of a possible double ratio of CO2. The absence of correlation between temperature changes and the immense and variable volume of CO2 waste by fuel burning is explained by the weak power of additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to reduce the outcoming window of long wave radiation. This effect is well performed by atmosphere humidity due to known increase insolation and vapor content in atmosphere.</p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">The role of vapor is reinforced when it is observed that the regions with a great difference between potential and actual specific humidity are the ones with high temperature increase, like continental areas in mid to high latitudes. The main implication is that temperature increase predictions based on CO2 driving models are not reliable.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">If the warmer power of solar irradiation is the independent driver for decadal and multidecadal cycles, the expected changes in insolation and no increase in green- house power may imply the recurrence of multidecadal cool phase, recalling the years of the third quarter of past century, before a new warming wave. The last decade stable temperature seems to be the turning point.</p> <p><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder_journalContent_HyperLink_fullText" href="http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperDownload.aspx?FileName=IJG20100300002_69193660.pdf&paperID=3447">Full Text</a><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder_journalContent_HyperLink_title" href="http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperDownload.aspx?FileName=IJG20100300002_69193660.pdf&paperID=3447"> </a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(PDF, 1794KB) PP.102-112 DOI: 10.4236/ijg.2010.13014</span><br /></p>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-61370728354434406292011-01-13T20:55:00.000-08:002011-01-13T21:47:07.555-08:00New Peer Reviewed Study Shows Just How Bad Climate Models AreVia <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/05/new-peer-reviewed-paper-shows-just-how-bad-the-climate-models-are/">Watts Up With That</a> is a critique of <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928">a peer reviewed paper</a> byAnagnostopoulos, G. G. , Koutsoyiannis, D. , Christofides, A. , Efstratiadis, A. and Mamassis, N.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">One of the biggest, if not </span><em style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">the</em><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> biggest issues of climate science skepticism is the criticism of over-reliance on computer model projections to suggest future outcomes. In this paper, climate models were hindcast tested against actual surface observations, and found to be seriously lacking. Just have a look at Figure 12 (mean temperature -vs- models for the USA) from the paper, shown below:<br /><br /></span> <div id="attachment_28903" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 650px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?path=/911751996/928051726/thsj_a_513518_o_f0012g.jpeg" target="_blank"><img style="width: 412px; height: 145px;" class="size-full wp-image-28903" title="Koutsoyiannis_figure12-partial" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/koutsoyiannis_figure12-partial.jpg?w=640&h=223" alt="" /></a></div><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: center;" class="wp-caption-text">Fig. 12. Various temperature time series spatially integrated over the USA (mean annual), at annual and 30-year scales. Click image for the complete graph.</p></div><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The graph above shows temperature in the blue lines, and model runs in other colors. Not only are there no curve shape matches, temperature offsets are significant as well. In the study, they also looked at precipitation, which fared even worse in correlation. The bottom line: if the models do a poor job of hindcasting, why would they do any better in forecasting? This from the conclusion sums it up pretty well:</span> <blockquote style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><p>…we think that the most important question is not whether GCMs can produce credible estimates of future climate, but whether climate is at all predictable in deterministic terms.</p></blockquote> <p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Selected sections of the entire paper, from the </span><em style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Hydrological Sciences Journal </em><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">is available</span> <a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928">online here as HTML</a><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">, and</span> </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" title="Download PDF" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/ftinterface%7Econtent=a928051726%7Efulltext=713240930%7Efrm=section" target="_top"><strong>as PDF</strong></a><span style="font-style: italic;"> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">~1.3MB are given below:</span></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Anagnostopoulos, G. G. , Koutsoyiannis, D. , Christofides, A. , Efstratiadis, A. and Mamassis, N. ‘A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data’, <em>Hydrological Sciences Journal</em>, 55:7, 1094 – 1110</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Abstract </strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><strong>Citation</strong> Anagnostopoulos, G. G., Koutsoyiannis, D., Christofides, A., Efstratiadis, A. & Mamassis, N. (2010) A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data. <em>Hydrol. Sci. J.</em> <strong>55</strong>(7), 1094-1110.</p> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong></div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global circulation models (GCM) are able to “reproduce features of the past climates and climate changes” (Randall <em>et al</em>., <a href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0020">2007</a>, p. 601). Here we test whether this is indeed the case. We examine how well several model outputs fit measured temperature and rainfall in many stations around the globe. We also integrate measurements and model outputs over a large part of a continent, the contiguous USA (the USA excluding islands and Alaska), and examine the extent to which models can reproduce the past climate there. We will be referring to this as “comparison at a large scale”.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">This paper is a continuation and expansion of Koutsoyiannis <em>et al.</em> (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0013">2008</a>). The differences are that (a) Koutsoyiannis <em>et al.</em> (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0013">2008</a>) had tested only eight points, whereas here we test 55 points for each variable; (b) we examine more variables in addition to mean temperature and precipitation; and (c) we compare at a large scale in addition to point scale. The comparison methodology is presented in the next section.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">While the study of Koutsoyiannis <em>et al.</em> (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0013">2008</a>) was not challenged by any formal discussion papers, or any other peer-reviewed papers, criticism appeared in science blogs (e.g. Schmidt, <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0022">2008</a>). Similar criticism has been received by two reviewers of the first draft of this paper, hereinafter referred to as critics. In both cases, it was only our methodology that was challenged and not our results. Therefore, after presenting the methodology below, we include a section “Justification of the methodology”, in which we discuss all the critical comments, and explain why we disagree and why we think that our methodology is appropriate. Following that, we present the results and offer some concluding remarks.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Here’s the models they tested:</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/koutsoyiannis_table1.png"><img style="width: 408px; height: 251px;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-28899" title="Koutsoyiannis_table1" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/koutsoyiannis_table1.png?w=636&h=389" alt="" /></a></p> <h3 style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);" id="s928051775">Comparison at a large scale</h3> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">We collected long time series of temperature and precipitation for 70 stations in the USA (five were also used in the comparison at the point basis). Again the data were downloaded from the web site of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climexp.knmi.nl/" target="_blank">http://climexp.knmi.nl</a>). The stations were selected so that they are geographically distributed throughout the contiguous USA. We selected this region because of the good coverage of data series satisfying the criteria discussed above. The stations selected are shown in <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#F0002">Fig. 2</a> and are listed by Anagnostopoulos</p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153); text-align: left;"> (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0001">2009</a>, pp. 12-13).</p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153); text-align: left;"> <a name="F0002"> </a><a title="THSJ_A_513518_O_XML_IMAGES\THSJ_A_513518_O_F0002g.jpg" href="http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?path=/911751996/928051726/thsj_a_513518_o_f0002g.jpeg" target="_blank"><img style="width: 406px; height: 162px;" title="THSJ_A_513518_O_XML_IMAGES\THSJ_A_513518_O_F0002g.jpg" src="http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?path=/911751996/928051726/thsj_a_513518_o_f0002g.jpeg" alt="THSJ_A_513518_O_XML_IMAGES\THSJ_A_513518_O_F0002g.jpg" border="0" /></a></p> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a title="Click to enlarge image" href="http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?path=/911751996/928051726/thsj_a_513518_o_f0002g.jpeg" target="_blank">[Enlarge Image]</a></div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Fig. 2. Stations selected for areal integration and their contribution areas (Thiessen polygons).</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">In order to produce an areal time series we used the method of Thiessen polygons (also known as Voronoi cells), which assigns weights to each point measurement that are proportional to the area of influence; the weights are the “Thiessen coefficients”. The Thiessen polygons for the selected stations of the USA are shown in <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#F0002">Fig. 2</a>.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">The annual average temperature of the contiguous USA was initially computed as the weighted average of the mean annual temperature at each station, using the station’s Thiessen coefficient as weight. The weighted average elevation of the stations (computed by multiplying the elevation of each station with the Thiessen coefficient) is <em>H</em><sub>m</sub> = 668.7 m and the average elevation of the contiguous USA (computed as the weighted average of the elevation of each state, using the area of each state as weight) is <em>H</em> = 746.8 m. By plotting the average temperature of each station against elevation and fitting a straight line, we determined a temperature gradient θ = -0.0038°C/m, which implies a correction of the annual average areal temperature θ(<em>H</em> - <em>H<sub>m</sub></em>) = -0.3°C.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">The annual average precipitation of the contiguous USA was calculated simply as the weighted sum of the total annual precipitation at each station, using the station’s Thiessen coefficient as weight, without any other correction, since no significant correlation could be determined between elevation and precipitation for the specific time series examined.</p> <p style="text-align: left; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">We verified the resulting areal time series using data from other organizations. Two organizations provide areal data for the USA: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Both organizations have modified the original data by making several adjustments and using homogenization methods. The time series of the two organizations have noticeable differences, probably because they used different processing methods. The reason for calculating our own areal time series is that we wanted to avoid any comparisons with modified data. As shown in <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#F0003">Fig. 3</a>, the temperature time series we calculated with the method described above are almost identical to the time series of NOAA, whereas in precipitation there is an almost constant difference of 40 mm per year.<br /></p><p style="text-align: left; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><a title="THSJ_A_513518_O_XML_IMAGES\THSJ_A_513518_O_F0003g.jpg" href="http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?path=/911751996/928051726/thsj_a_513518_o_f0003g.jpeg" target="_blank"><img style="width: 407px; height: 159px;" title="THSJ_A_513518_O_XML_IMAGES\THSJ_A_513518_O_F0003g.jpg" src="http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?path=/911751996/928051726/thsj_a_513518_o_f0003g.jpeg" alt="THSJ_A_513518_O_XML_IMAGES\THSJ_A_513518_O_F0003g.jpg" border="0" /></a></p> <div style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"><a title="Click to enlarge image" href="http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?path=/911751996/928051726/thsj_a_513518_o_f0003g.jpeg" target="_blank">[Enlarge Image]</a></div> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Fig. 3. Comparison between areal (over the USA) time series of NOAA (downloaded from <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html" target="_blank">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html</a>) and areal time series derived through the Thiessen method; for (a) mean annual temperature (adjusted for elevation), and (b) annual precipitation.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Determining the areal time series from the climate model outputs is straightforward: we simply computed a weighted average of the time series of the grid points situated within the geographical boundaries of the contiguous USA. The influence area of each grid point is <span style="font-size:100%;">arectangle whose “vertical” (perpendicular to the equator) side is (ϕ<sub>2</sub> - ϕ<sub>1</sub>)/2 and its </span>“horizontal” side is proportional to cosϕ, where ϕ is the latitude of each grid point, and ϕ<sub>2</sub> and ϕ<sub>1</sub> are the latitudes of the adjacent “horizontal” grid lines. The weights used were thus cosϕ(ϕ<sub>2</sub> - ϕ<sub>1</sub>); where grid latitudes are evenly spaced, the weights are simply cosϕ.<strong><br /></strong></p><p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><strong>CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION</strong><a name="S0005"></a></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">It is claimed that GCMs provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above. Examining the local performance of the models at 55 points, we found that local projections do not correlate well with observed measurements. Furthermore, we found that the correlation at a large spatial scale, i.e. the contiguous USA, is worse than at the local scale.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">However, we think that the most important question is not whether GCMs can produce credible estimates of future climate, but whether climate is at all predictable in deterministic terms. Several publications, a typical example being Rial <em>et al.</em> (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0021">2004</a>), point out the difficulties that the climate system complexity introduces when we attempt to make predictions. “Complexity” in this context usually refers to the fact that there are many parts comprising the system and many interactions among these parts. This observation is correct, but we take it a step further. We think that it is not merely a matter of high dimensionality, and that it can be misleading to assume that the uncertainty can be reduced if we analyse its “sources” as nonlinearities, feedbacks, thresholds, etc., and attempt to establish causality relationships. Koutsoyiannis (<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0011">2010</a>) created a toy model with simple, fully-known, deterministic dynamics, and with only two degrees of freedom (i.e. internal state variables or dimensions); but it exhibits extremely uncertain behaviour at all scales, including trends, fluctuations, and other features similar to those displayed by the climate. It does so with a constant external forcing, which means that there is no causality relationship between its state and the forcing. The fact that climate has many orders of magnitude more degrees of freedom certainly perplexes the situation further, but in the end it may be irrelevant; for, in the end, we do not have a predictable system hidden behind many layers of uncertainty which could be removed to some extent, but, rather, we have a system that is uncertain at its heart.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Do we have something better than GCMs when it comes to establishing policies for the future? Our answer is yes: we have stochastic approaches, and what is needed is a paradigm shift. We need to recognize the fact that the uncertainty is intrinsic, and shift our attention from reducing the uncertainty towards quantifying the uncertainty (see also Koutsoyiannis <em>et al</em>., <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0015">2009a</a>). Obviously, in such a paradigm shift, stochastic descriptions of hydroclimatic processes should incorporate what is known about the driving physical mechanisms of the processes. Despite a common misconception of stochastics as black-box approaches whose blind use of data disregard the system dynamics, several celebrated examples, including statistical thermophysics and the modelling of turbulence, emphasize the opposite, i.e. the fact that stochastics is an indispensable, advanced and powerful part of physics. Other simpler examples (e.g. Koutsoyiannis,<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928#CIT0011">2010</a>) indicate how known deterministic dynamics can be fully incorporated in a stochastic framework and reconciled with the unavoidable emergence of uncertainty in predictions.<br /></p>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-46276269065466446332011-01-13T20:37:00.000-08:002011-01-13T20:55:37.022-08:00New Peer Review Study Rebuts Schmidt Paper on Surface Temperature MeasurementsDr. Ross McKitrick has co authored a peer reviewed paper that demonstrates the likely contamination of surface temperature results used by Gavin Schmidt and the IPCC. He also explains the difficulties that scientists not in the hockey team have in getting papers published, seeing as those in the Hockey Team tried to "<a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2010/08/even-if-we-have-to-redefine-what-peer.html">redefine what peer review literature is</a>".<br />Via <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateresearchnews.com/2010/12/2-warmist-hockey-team-papers-rebutted-by-peer-reviewed-publications/">Climate Research News</a>:<br /><br /><p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Meanwhile,</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/" target="_blank">Ross McKitrick writes</a>:</p> <p>“<span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">NEW PAPER ON CONTAMINATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA: In 2007 I published a </span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.uoguelph.ca/%7Ermckitri/research/jgr07/jgr07.html" target="_blank">paper</a><span style="font-style: italic;"> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">with Pat Michaels showing evidence that CRU global surface temperature data used by the IPCC are likely contaminated due to socioeconomic development and variations in data quality. In 2009 Gavin Schmidt published a </span></span><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1831/abstract" target="_blank">paper</a><span style="font-style: italic;"> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">in the International Journal of Climatology claiming our results, as well as those of de Laat and Maurellis who independently found the same things we did, were spurious. My rebuttal, coauthored with Nicolas Nierenberg, has been accepted at</span> </span><a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.iospress.nl/loadtop/load.php?isbn=07479662" target="_blank"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement.</span> </a></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">McKitrick, Ross R. and Nicolas Nierenberg (2010)</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/final_jesm_dec2010.formatted.pdf" target="_blank">Socioeconomic Patterns in Climate Data. </a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, forthcoming.</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The paper provides a complete and thorough refutation of Schmidt’s critique. Why JESM? First, because it is a journal that focuses on the critical evaluation of policy-relevant databases, and its editors and reviewers have considerable econometric depth, and this paper is fundamentally an application of econometrics to the evaluation of data quality. Second, we submitted the paper to the IJOC in April 2009, on the assumption that, having published Schmidt’s paper, they were interested in the topic. Evidently their interest only extends to analyses that support IPCC views. After 10 months we found out that IJOC was rejecting our paper on the basis of some inane referee reports to which Nico and I were not given a chance to reply. </span><a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/response_to_ijoc.pdf" target="_blank">We did anyway</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">, and if anyone thinks the rejection by IJOC amounts to a knock against our paper, please read our</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/response_to_ijoc.pdf" target="_blank">response letter </a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">for some perspective. Whether or not the IJOC editors read it, they refused to reconsider our paper. Interestingly, we learned from the Climategate release that Schmidt’s paper, which focuses on defending Phil Jones’ CRU data against its various critics, was sent by the IJOC Editors to be reviewed by Phil Jones of the CRU. As you can imagine his review was shallow and uncritical, but evidently impressed the editors of IJOC. They didn’t ask deLaat or me to supply a review, nor did they invite us to contribute a response. Every interaction I have had over the years with the IJOC has left me very unimpressed.”</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Summary of McKitrick & Nierenberg (2010):</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><em>To generate a climate data set, temperature data collected at the Earth’s surface must be adjusted to remove non-climatic effects such as urbanization and measurement discontinuities. Some studies have shown that the post-1980 spatial pattern of temperature trends over land in prominent climate data sets is strongly correlated with the spatial pattern of socioeconomic development, implying that the adjustments are inadequate, leaving a residual warm bias. This evidence has been disputed on three grounds: spatial autocorrelation of the temperature field undermines significance of test results; counterfactual experiments using model generated data suggest such correlations have an innocuous interpretation; and different satellite covariates yield unstable results. Somewhat surprisingly, these claims have not been put into a coherent framework for the purpose of statistical testing. We combine economic and climatological data sets from various teams with trend estimates from global climate models and we use spatial regressions to test the competing hypotheses. Overall we find that the evidence for contamination of climatic data is robust across numerous data sets, it is not undermined by controlling for spatial autocorrelation, and the patterns are not explained by climate models. Consequently we conclude that important data products used for the analysis of climate change over global land surfaces may be contaminated with socioeconomic patterns related to urbanization and other socioeconomic processes.</em><br /></p>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8309330477814660592.post-85128495413560646142011-01-13T19:41:00.000-08:002011-01-13T20:37:26.372-08:00New Peer Reviewed Study Rebuts Steig et al Study on AntarcticIn an earlier post on <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/polar-icecaps-part-3.html">The Polar Ice Caps -Part 3</a> I referenced a study conducted by Professor Eric Stieg and others that reportedly showed massive warming over the majority of Antarctica despite much evidence to the contrary. Needless to say it captured the media's attention and was for the most part unquestioned by them with the exception of columnists like <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/4332784/Despite-the-hot-air-the-Antarctic-is-not-warming-up.html">Christopher Booker of the U.K. Telegraph</a>.<br /><br />Now it seems there is another peer reviewed study into this same area and not surprisingly when not relying on an outcome to prove a theory, it had very different results:<br /><br />Entitled <span style="font-weight: bold;">Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig </span><i style="font-weight: bold;">et al.</i><span style="font-weight: bold;"> 2009 Antarctic temperature reconstruction</span> its abstract can be <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3656.1?prevSearch=&searchHistoryKey">viewed here</a>. The following is some analysis of the new paper by <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateresearchnews.com/2010/12/2-warmist-hockey-team-papers-rebutted-by-peer-reviewed-publications/">Climate Research News</a>:<br /><br /><p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Remember the Steig et al 2009 Nature paper? As</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://climateaudit.org/2010/12/02/odonnell-et-al-2010-refutes-steig-et-al-2009/" target="_blank">Steve McIntyre points out at Climate Audit</a>: <span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">“Like so many Team efforts, it applied a little-known statistical method, the properties of which were poorly known, to supposedly derive an important empirical result. In the case of Steig et al 2009, the key empirical claim was that strong Antarctic warming was not localized to the Antarctic Peninsula (a prominent antecedent position), but was also very pronounced in West Antarctic.”</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Well, there is a new paper in press in the</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/loi/clim" target="_blank">Journal of Climate</a>:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig et al. 2009 Antarctic temperature reconstruction</strong> by Ryan O’Donnell, Nicholas Lewis, Steve McIntyre, Jeff Condon</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The abstract states:</p> <p style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><em>A detailed analysis is presented of a recently published Antarctic temperature reconstruction that combines satellite and ground information using a regularized expectation-maximization algorithm. Though the general reconstruction concept has merit, it is susceptible to spurious </em><em>results for both temperature trends and patterns. The deficiencies include: (a) improper calibration of satellite data; (b) improper determination of spatial structure during infilling; and (c) suboptimal determination of regularization parameters, particularly with respect to satellite principal component retention. We propose two methods to resolve these issues. One utilizes temporal relationships between the satellite and ground data; the other combines ground data with only the spatial component of the satellite data. Both improved methods </em><em>yield similar results that disagree with the previous method in several aspects. Rather than finding warming concentrated in West Antarctica, we find warming over the period of 1957–2006 to be concentrated in the Peninsula (≈0.35°C decade−1). We also show average trends for the continent, East </em><em>Antarctica, and West Antarctica that are half or less than that found using the unimproved method. Notably, though we find warming in West Antarctica to be smaller in magnitude, we find that statistically significant warming extends at least as far as Marie Byrd Land. We also find differences in the seasonal patterns of temperature change, with winter and fall showing the largest differences and spring and summer showing negligible differences outside of the Peninsula.</em></p>Another analysis was provided by Anthony Watts <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/01/skeptic-paper-accepted-on-antarctica-rebuts-steig-et-al/#more-28742">at Watts Up With That</a>:<!--[if !mso]> <style> v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves>false</w:TrackMoves> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> 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href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHhB8jFBWlKHHly_HFu4sKMFba9WejN-I2iUaXx_Jn1_ri0vKC-on1B0qkgCVUuCHpzHTmoEv3gOSX4KyEomhLAj0yolTAHaiUtEZ5k0JNNjYs_LTmdlyZVtVCwkIFBDTSBChiOhzzAZw/s1600/cover_nature.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 150px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHhB8jFBWlKHHly_HFu4sKMFba9WejN-I2iUaXx_Jn1_ri0vKC-on1B0qkgCVUuCHpzHTmoEv3gOSX4KyEomhLAj0yolTAHaiUtEZ5k0JNNjYs_LTmdlyZVtVCwkIFBDTSBChiOhzzAZw/s400/cover_nature.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5561890336646240722" border="0" /></a><br /></div><p><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In a blow to the Real Climate “hockey team” one team member’s paper, </span><em style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Steig et al</em> <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51); font-style: italic;" href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v457/n7228/abs/nature07669.html"><span style="">Nature</span><em>, </em><span style="">Jan 22, 2009</span></a> <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(seen above) has been shown lacking. Once appropriate statistical procedures were applied, the real data spoke clearly, and it was done in a peer reviewed paper by skeptics. Jeff Condon of the Air Vent writes via email that he and co-authors, Ryan O’Donnell, Nicholas Lewis, and Steve McIntyre have succeeded in getting a paper accepted into the prestigious</span> <a style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);" href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/loi/clim" target="_blank"><em>Journal of Climate</em></a> <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">and asked me to re-post the notice here.</span></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The review process was difficult, with one reviewer getting difficult on submitted comments </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">[and subsequent rebuttal comments from authors ] that became longer than the submitted paper, 88 pages, 10 times the length of the paper they submitted! I commend them for their patience in wading through such formidable <em>bloviation</em>. Anyone want to bet that reviewer was a “team” member?</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">As WUWT <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/20/steig-et-al-antarctica-warming-paper-process-is-finally-replicated-and-dealt-a-blow-to-robustness/" target="_blank"><span style="">covered in the past</span></a>, these authors have demonstrated clearly that the warming is mostly in the Antarctic Peninsula. <em>Steig et al’s</em> Mannian PCA math methods had smeared that warming over most of the entire continent, creating a false impression.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">WUWT visitors may want to <a style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/28/steigs-antarctic-heartburn/" target="_blank"><span style="">read this primer</span></a><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> </span>which explains how this happens. But most </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">importantly, have a look at the side by side comparison maps below. Congratulations to Jeff, Ryan, Nick, and Steve! – Anthony</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Jeff writes:</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">After ten months of reviews and rewrites we have successfully published an improved version of Steig et al. 2009. While we cannot publish the paper here, we can discuss the detail. Personally I’ve never seen so much work put into a single paper as Ryan did and it’s wonderful to see it come to a successful conclusion. This is the initial post on the subject, in the coming weeks there will be more to follow.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Guest post by lead author Ryan O’Donnel.</p> <p>——–</p> <p><a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/12/01/doing-it-ourselves/" target="_blank"><span style="">DOING IT OURSELVES.</span></a> <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">. . a tongue-in-cheek reference to the</span> <a style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/08/doing-it-yourselves/"><span style="">RC post here</span></a>:</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"><strong>Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig et al. (2009) Antarctic temperature reconstruction</strong></p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">(Accepted 11/30/10, Journal of Climate)</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Ryan O’Donnell Nicholas Lewis Steve McIntyre Jeff Condon</p> <table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 753pt; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="1004"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="padding: 0in;"> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style=";font-family:";" >Abstract</span></strong> </p> <p>A detailed analysis is presented of a recently published Antarctic temperature reconstruction<br />that combines satellite and ground information using a regularized expectation-maximization<br />algorithm. Though the general reconstruction concept has merit, it is susceptible to spurious<br />results for both temperature trends and patterns. The deficiencies include: (a) improper<br />calibration of satellite data; (b) improper determination of spatial structure during infilling;<br />and (c) suboptimal determination of regularization parameters, particularly with respect to<br />satellite principal component retention. We propose two methods to resolve these issues. One<br />utilizes temporal relationships between the satellite and ground data; the other combines<br />ground data with only the spatial component of the satellite data. Both improved methods<br />yield similar results that disagree with the previous method in several aspects. Rather than<br />finding warming concentrated in West Antarctica, we find warming over the period of<br />1957-2006 to be concentrated in the Peninsula (≈0.35oC decade-1). We also show average<br />trends for the continent, East Antarctica, and West Antarctica that are half or less than that<br />found using the unimproved method. Notably, though we find warming in West Antarctica to<br />be smaller in magnitude, we find that statistically significant warming extends at least as far<br />as Marie Byrd Land. We also find differences in the seasonal patterns of temperature change,<br />with winter and fall showing the largest differences and spring and summer showing negligible<br />differences outside of the Peninsula.</p> <table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 510pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="680"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">Region</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">RLS C/Dec</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">E-W C/Dec</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">S09 C/Dec</p> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">Continent</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.06 ± 0.08</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.04 ± 0.06</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.12 ± 0.09</p> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">East Antarctica</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.03 ± 0.09</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.02 ± 0.07</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.10 ± 0.10</p> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">West Antarctica</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.10 ± 0.09</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.06 ± 0.07</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.20 ± 0.09</p> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">Peninsula</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.35 ± 0.11</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.32 ± 0.09</p> </td> <td style="padding: 0in; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"> <p class="MsoNormal">0.13 ± 0.05</p> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p>Copyright © 2010 American Meteorological Association</p> <p>(early online release to be available on or around Dec. 7th)</p><h1 style="text-align: left;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd-A3JzCDm5XycW3bGJ3w60QEAeXKsSkLJMcVOIo4LvjXfzHI4uRnt6DkWHOaht0FUaU0CDYu412FCuCzWdAybbLR_i9haCdAtJ_PAEYuS87EuMfS-llkVlJwS_OjK0AYhez1hHOPzkuQ/s1600/image0.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 195px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd-A3JzCDm5XycW3bGJ3w60QEAeXKsSkLJMcVOIo4LvjXfzHI4uRnt6DkWHOaht0FUaU0CDYu412FCuCzWdAybbLR_i9haCdAtJ_PAEYuS87EuMfS-llkVlJwS_OjK0AYhez1hHOPzkuQ/s400/image0.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5561893267920954626" border="0" /></a></h1> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255); text-align: left;" class="MsoNormal">Temperature trend Deg C/Decade . </p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Some of you remember that we intended to submit the analysis of the Steig Antarctic reconstruction for publication. That was quite some time ago . . . and then you heard nothing. We did, indeed, submit a paper to Journal of Climate in February. The review process unfortunately took longer than expected, primarily due to one reviewer in particular. The total number of pages dedicated by that reviewer alone – and our subsequent responses – was 88 single-spaced pages, or more than 10 times the length of the paper. Another contributor to the length of time from submission to acceptance was a hardware upgrade to the AMS servers that went horribly wrong, heaping a load of extra work on the Journal of Climate editorial staff.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">With that being said, I am quite satisfied that the review process was fair and equitable, although I do believe excessive deference was paid to this one particular reviewer at the beginning of the process. While the other two reviews were positive (and contained many good suggestions for improvement of the manuscript), the other review was quite negative. As the situation progressed, however, the editor at Journal of Climate – Dr. Anthony Broccoli – added a fourth reviewer to obtain another opinion, which was also positive. My feeling is that Dr. Broccoli did a commendable job of sorting through a series of lengthy reviews and replies in order to ensure that the decision made was the correct one.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The results in the paper are generally similar to the in-process analysis that was posted at CA and here prior to the submission. Overall, we find that the Steig reconstruction overestimated the continental trends and underestimated the Peninsula – though our analysis found that the trend in West Antarctica was, indeed, statistically significant. I would hope that our paper is not seen as a repudiation of Steig’s results, but rather as an improvement.</p> <p style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">In my opinion, the Steig reconstruction was quite clever, and the general concept was sound. A few of the choices made during implementation were incorrect; a few were suboptimal. Importantly, if those are corrected, some of the results change. Also importantly, some do not. Hopefully some of the cautions outlined in our paper are incorporated into other, future work. Time will tell!<br /></p>Climate Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06305141195861809441noreply@blogger.com0